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Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by maxsilver on Saturday February 02, 2019 @09:52AM (#19063235)
> There is an apocalyptic amount of people moving into California, and no one blames them for the overcrowding and the shifting culture. But when too many Californians leave California and settle in, say, Portland, they are blamed for ruining the place by way of simply being themselves.

Part of this is where the money comes from.

Poorer/lower-middle-class people (mostly) move into California, to work these jobs under varying amounts of duress. It's hard to complain about the kid who moved from Iowa/Wisconsin/Tennessee/etc, and is hoping their first real tech job at Uber or Facebook or Netflix justifies the move. That's why discussion moves to hating the companies, not the people.

But when Californians leave, they leave wealthy (in comparison). Even if they were poor-ish in California, just the act of selling their home (or condo, or any unit, anywhere in the state) instantly propels them straight to the upper-class or upper-middle-class when they move to places like Idaho or Nebraska or Michigan.

So, when they move here, and say things like "$200k for a beat up old house? That's nothing! A downpayment in California would be $200k!" -- it gets easy to hate the coastal person for their money. Because you sure as hell aren't earning that cash local -- Our hometown Gordon Foods corporate jobs aren't paying even 33% of the wages a corporate Uber Eats job does. Our local housing prices are no longer driven by local wages, they're driven largely by what percentage of coastal people are cashing out their wealth and dumping it into our hometowns (or what percent of coastal private equity funds are buying up our cities to rent back to us at inflated rates)

----

That's not to defend these actions, I am not saying this is right (no one should hate anyone over this). But it does at least help understand why the blame goes where it does. The blame follows the money. In California, that money comes from the companies. But in flyover-USA, that money is coming from the Californians (or NYC/Boston/DC/Seattle/Denver transplants), because you sure as hell aren't ever earning that much money from any local company here.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by geebee on Saturday February 02, 2019 @10:05AM (#19063311)
Do you have any stats on the wealth distribution of people leaving California? This really is a situation where more demographic information would be helpful, since an average wouldn't tell you as much. Do the wealthy Californians tend to be old, retirees? Young with kids? Are half the Californians leaving well off, with other half largely penniless?

Your assertion that "when Californians leave, they leave wealthy" may be true, but I would like to see it substantiated with some kind of cite.

Having grown up in SF (I'm in my late 40s), I have, by this point, seen a lot of people leave (and arrive), and they run the gamut.

I know a couple with two small kids who did what everyone in Portland fears most - they bought in SF during the housing bust, sold recently, collected 800k or so, and now own a house outright in Portland.

I know a woman who grew up in Palo Alto in the 1970s and works as a documentary film maker. She left for Denver with nothing but the savings that can get you through a few months.

Lots more, and they're anecdotes, but it's enough to make me suspect that "when Californians leave, they leave wealthy" isn't true often enough to make it a generally accurate statement, even if it does describe a substantial number of these cases.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by austincheney on Saturday February 02, 2019 @10:18AM (#19063389)
California is bleeding something like 60,000 people each year just to Texas. The Californians moving to north Texas metros do not appear poor relative to neighboring Texans enjoying superior standards of living with deprecated wages compared to California.

When I bought my Texas house about a decade ago the average house price in my metro was about $200,000 and now I think it is about $250,000. These average houses are individual units from 2500-3000sqft on a quarter acre lot. If you are able to sell an equivalent CA house for $2,000,000 you are moving in wealthy compared to Texans. It doesn't mean you can afford a mansion here though, because property taxes are about equal to CA property taxes at about 6.5% per year.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by geebee on Saturday February 02, 2019 @10:26AM (#19063438)
You did say "do not appear to be poor". Is there a chance you're noticing wealthy people, because they tend to be more noticeable?

Yes, people who bought a house while ago in California, sell, and move to Texas would have a lot of money. But again, is this typical?

I'm not saying it necessarily isn't typical, just that "it seems like", or "appears to be" isn't data. A lot of people leave California because they can cash in on their house, but a lot of people also leave because they'll never be able to get a foothold in the housing market.

We really do need some data on this to have a meaningful conversation about it.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by burlesona on Saturday February 02, 2019 @01:34PM (#19064721)
I would love to see the data on this as well. But at least anecdotally around me (an immigrant working in tech in SF), the overwhelming number of people who moved here are following a plan that looks like this:

1. Get a big tech job in SF and earn > $200k per year (in some cases 2-3x that). 2. Deal with living in a run down apartment yet still paying $2200-3500/mo. 3. Shovel a large percentage of your income into savings for 5-10 years. 4. Move back to <anywhere else> with $300k in cash.

At which point you can pay either pay straight cash, or make a huge downpayment, for a nice house and live pretty comfortable in the upper middle class for the rest of your life.

Again I would love to see scientific data on this, but in my immediate work setting, I've heard 12 of the 15 engineers I work with state this as their "life plan."

Of the three who that isn't their plan, two are Bay Area natives, and one (I think) has decided he'd like to stay.

So, circling up to the parent comments, there are certainly large numbers of these people leaving every year, taking their <geographically relative> big bags of cash back to the corners of the world.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by austincheney on Saturday February 02, 2019 @12:04PM (#19064101)
> Yes, people who bought a house while ago in California, sell, and move to Texas would have a lot of money. But again, is this typical?

This was the business owner at my first job out of college. He sold his California home and used that money to bootstrap his business for two years and hire employees while also supporting himself and his family.

The answer though is middle class people according to IRS data - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/19/californians-fed-up-with-hou...

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by jdavis703 on Saturday February 02, 2019 @12:01PM (#19064074)
> property taxes are about equal to CA property taxes at about 6.5% per year.

Property tax in CA is capped at 1% of assessed value per year.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by eweise on Saturday February 02, 2019 @11:57AM (#19064033)
California property taxes about are about 1.5%, not 6.5%
Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by panzagl on Saturday February 02, 2019 @01:45PM (#19064805)
I think they mean the houses are 5x cheaper, but tax is 5x higher, therefore they wouldn't want to buy a 'mansion' in Texas
Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by techslave on Saturday February 02, 2019 @03:35PM (#19065526)
he means that you end up paying the same in property tax, even tho the house itself is much (6.5x) cheaper. and the tax payment comes out of your cash flow, not your assets.

but he’s not taking into account other reductions in expense, like no state income tax.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by mdorazio on Saturday February 02, 2019 @11:32AM (#19063840)
I think this is the data you're looking for [1]. It actually runs somewhat counter to the parent comment's assertion. On average, wealthier people move to CA because they can afford to live here while poorer people leave because they can't afford to live here. However, you'd have to do some additional lookups based on the median incomes of where emigrants are moving to in order to draw a conclusion about whether they are better or worse off than the local population of their destination.

[1] https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by qqqwerty on Saturday February 02, 2019 @01:11PM (#19064567)
It's quite possible that the 'California wealthy' are a minority of transplants (say 20-40%), but that could still move real estate markets significantly. Looking at [1], it seems like the Portland housing market does about 20-40k sales per year. And it sounds like Portland has been growing by about 30-40k people per year (that is total, not just Californians). So if 25% of those folks are jumping into the real estate market, it can probably have a big impact on the supply/demand. Housing is pretty slow to respond to supply/demand imbalances so even a small imbalance can swing the market.

[1] https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Portland-Oregon/market-tr...

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by jostmey on Saturday February 02, 2019 @10:51AM (#19063576)
"There is an apocalyptic amount of people moving into California,"

Really? New york is crowded. Chicago is crowded. The bay area is just spread out. It just feels crowded because California won't build upwards, which is a result of its backward housing laws, codes, and tax systems.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by bobcat9 on Saturday February 02, 2019 @11:23AM (#19063779)
I find the bay area TINY compared to the NYC sprawl.
Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by dimva on Saturday February 02, 2019 @01:31PM (#19064699)
If people moving to your area and investing lots of their own money in the local economy is a bad thing, your local policies, politicians, and probably politics are very useless.

People investing money into the local economy should always be a good thing, and if the locals aren't capturing enough of that to mitigate the increase in costs, that's on them for voting in incompetent or evil politicians. Blaming the people coming in with money isn't going to solve anything.

Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by malandrew on Saturday February 02, 2019 @01:31PM (#19064698)
It's not just the money either. It's the failed policies that Californians bring with them that got them in this high cost of living mess in the first place. People moved to these other states to avoid things like high taxes. Then when Californians move to these states, they start voting for policies that increase local and state taxes and policies that generally increase the cost of living.
Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by burlesona on Saturday February 02, 2019 @01:35PM (#19064728)
I agree this is a key factor. Family members in the northwest are constantly complaining of the influx of Californians, specifically saying "they priced themselves out of California with their foolish policies and now they're repeating that stupidity here."
Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by youeseh on Saturday February 02, 2019 @10:28AM (#19063453)
The mostly men who move to California for the tech jobs are called "tech-bros" and are hated on for various reasons and often blamed for inflated rents and the expensive housing market.
Re:If San Francisco is so great, why is everyone I love leav... by youeseh on Saturday February 02, 2019 @08:35PM (#19067196)
Oh wow, more downvotes than I anticipated. Just to clarify, I'm not saying that the blame and hate are deserved. I was countering OP's point that people don't blame job-migrants for rising prices in California.