If Fortnite gets replaced by another similarly popular fad after a few years then people still aren't watching Netflix. That's what Netflix has to compete against. I'm quite sure that's how the quote is supposed to be understood—not that Netflix expects Fortnite specifically to be their top competitor for the next decade.

Which is another way to say that Amazon is their competition, considering Twitch's integration with Prime - and Amazons investment into gaming with Lumberyard and AWS. I suspect Unity was acting defensively against AWS with their license change, with Improbable caught up in the middle. Just speculation.

Lumberyard is not that relevant in the gaming industry. And aws has had it for years.

Even now both Candy Crush and Pokémon GO are both in the top three mobile games by daily revenue - https://thinkgaming.com/app-sales-data/

But it is not the juggernaut it was at it's prime. I'll never forget that 4 to 6 day stretch when you would watch random people playing it on their phones. In parks, malls, supermarkets, Costco! It seemed like everywhere I went there would be at least 6 people playing it.

I don't think I ever experienced something like that before. A really visual, tangible fad.

I miss those days, but I am so glad they happened. One of the most important days in my life.

If I remember correctly, Pokemon Go has pulled over two billion USD in revenue, and is growing. Reports of its demise are certainly premature.

In 3 years, people will still be playing Fortnite, but nowhere near in the same quantities as today. I think you're missing the point of the post you're replying to.

Sure but those people will be hooked with another game.

1.4b In 2018 alone - a figure that staggered me

That is a remarkably large amount of money for a three year old free to play mobile game.

Wait it did more in 2018 than 2017?

As another example, Minecraft apparently has about 90 million users 7 years after its release. Games for kids get a constant supply of new players, so it could be a fad or not depending on what else catches their attention.

As was once said about Hollywood, nobody knows anything.

Tho Minecraft was something like the "proto Fortnite".

All the casual gamers I know spend their time on Minecraft, at least until Fortnite came around, then they've pretty much all transitioned to Fortnite, with Minecraft now being the "if Fortnite doesn't work" replacement.

Is Minecraft's usage decreasing for real? And hard numbers?

Minecraft doesn't have a single huge social/multiplayer server so when players reach their teens they tend to migrate towards more social games with lots of players, Fortnite being the prime example, and Roblox being another (cringe). The current dominant Minecraft server, Hypixel, is developing it's own 'voxel-based' game called Hytale. It will be interesting to see how that goes once it is released.

All video games have a shelf life. The experience gets stale, the hype dies down and people move on to something else.

My 12yo has grown out of Minecraft, but 6yo shows signs of growing interest. This week, she discovered redstone and pressure plates and went automating every door she can find in old builds she normally doesn't care much.

Minecraft will have endless supply of users in the future, and when they're done with it, there will always be a next step waiting. That's why Netflix will always have trouble figthing with those.

With something else being another game. People don't switch interactive entertainment for non-interactive one.

Are there studies showing that? Switching seems perfectly natural. If a good game comes out I'll play that. If a good TV show comes out I'll watch that. And since my free time is limited, if I pick one it means I'm not doing the other.

Same for me; though I prefer to play an old game than watch new TV quite often.

The TV show end, multiplayer games don't.

CSGO: see a few people in every match (so perhaps 10%) that have the 10year badge.

Some games have lasting replayability.

Why would it be a fad though? League of legends, dota2, cs:go are all going strong

Most things are fads. Few things stay going strong.

Those are all still super huge. Just because they aren't the insane level they were once at doesn't mean they aren't still massive.

I'm not saying Fortnite's audience will shrink to zero. I predict it will shrink though, just like the above mentioned titles that are shells of their former glory. The growth can't last.

Maybe I should have said FarmVille or DrawSomething...

The problem is that people playing Fortnite today won't move back to just watching Netflix in 3 years. They'll just jump to the next gaming fad

Hytale will pull some players from Fortnite when it is released, although it may not reach the same scale as Fortnite.

All those examples are trashy mobile games. They come nowhere near Fortnite in terms of quality and development effort.

That's true of every game and pretty much all of entertainment. Nothing stays popular forever.

Some entertainment transcends time and just grows its audience perpetually. Think Star Wars, The Beatles, James Bond. Some things never go out of fashion.

I'm not seeing the connection. You are comparing franchines that have been repeatedly rebooted, remixed and recommercialized for decades to a single title released only a couple years ago. None of the things you listed "transcend time" in their original form.

Really? Not even The Beatles? What about Picasso? Bach? Van Gogh? Gershwin? Miles Davis? All timeless. No reboot required.

None of those carry the same cultural weight they once did. All things ultimately fade.

Well definitely not the Beatles. They are nowhere near the popularity they had 20+ years ago.

The rest of those are not popular at all amongst the majority of people in the US. Timeless sure, but not popular on the level of Star Wars, etc.

By "transcend time" do you mean "remembered and respected"? None of what you listed there is anywhere near the height of its original popularity, not even close.

In terms of profitibility the beatles catologue continues to grow in value as the songs can be found everywhere from commericials to chants used in rallys. The height of beatlemania in the press will never be seen again but they are changing into folklore and will be recelebrated as legend after they all pass.

I dont know, they are known, but they are not a craze in the art world now. Nothing remains constant!!

I generally interact with a lot of school students. All enjoy the current music, and some adventurous person has to go out of the way to even try the beatles.

In my opinion that's because the Beatles aren't actually that good compared with the body of music since.

Don't get me wrong, in their day they were ground breaking, but there's a huge difference between newness (or perhaps novelty) and greatness.

Let's agree to disagree on this one. IMO The Beatles' music is a high water mark in popular music unmatched before or since.

I would love to understand this point more, if only because it's so contrary to my own view. The argument from most Beatles fans (other than "you don't get it, man" which is by far the most common) is something about how different they were.

What about their music is better to you? Is it their longevity or the volume of music they made, do they have several of your favorite songs/albums/performances? Is it something peculiar to their style that you really liked, or do you see them as more technically proficient at composition or perhaps it's their musical skill?

Genuinely curious!

I'm not a long-time Beatles fan, but I've been going through a bunch of major popular music albums from the 50s on up in chronological order over the last few months, and gave IIRC seven Beatles albums at least one pretty close listen each as part of that project. Their qualities that still make them stand out as really damn good:

1) Their albums are eclectic. They're are all over the place in the best way. You listen to someone like Hendrix or Metallica or whoever and you're kinda in for just the one thing. Maybe with some notable variation here and there, but they're not gonna go way off some totally unexpected direction. They may be great, or they may just play the kind of thing you happen to like a lot, which is fine, but that's pretty much all you're getting. The Beatles may, by contrast, have five songs each with very different sounds and emotional content in not much more than ten minutes, somehow without giving the listener whiplash.

2) They do that thing great artists (in other media, too) do where they have complete confidence that they can come up with more good ideas, so they'll toss out great stuff and move on like it was nothing—they don't cling to good ideas, because they know more are coming.

3) Contributing to all the above, the creative input of various members of the band shining in different songs.

4) Legit good songwriting, music and lyrics. Rubber Soul, which is the album I keep coming back to (not sure I'd defend it as their best? The White Album is ~1.5 LPs worth of top-notch stuff spread over two LPs and it's hard to argue against it) has a some really good, understated moments of humanity and humor in just the first few tracks—lyrically, they know what to write and, as importantly, what not to. The Beatles could be blunt as hell when they wanted, certainly, but could also achieve sublime subtlety. Even their more straightforward songs often have one or two little thorns to catch you as you go through. The music itself is, as mentioned, eclectic but mostly very good despite ranging freely across instruments, styles, and continents. Haha, I've got that fuzzed-bass part from Think For Yourself stuck in my head now just from thinking about this. So, so good.

Going through those albums has been one of my favorite experiences to come out of this listening project. I'd barely heard anything but their radio hits (to be fair, there are a lot of those) until last year. Now they've got five albums in my regular rotation[0].

[0] The Beatles (The White Album), Rubber Soul, Abbey Road, Let It Be, Sgt. Pepper's—I've given Revolver two full listens and just cannot understand why people like it. I like a couple songs but most of it... bleh. I'll hit it again in a few years but for one that's often put up as their best, man, I don't even like it. Go figure. Magical Mystery Tour's (US version) back half is incredible, since it's just a bunch of their previously-released between-albums singles, but almost the entire first side sucks.

"Not even the Beatles"?

Of your original three examples of entertainment that "transcends time and grows its audience perpetually", none of them predate 1950. That's a terrible record for a phenomenon that "transcends time". This should be enough by itself to tell you that you're talking nonsense. What are the odds that 100% of literally timeless entertainment was developed in the last 70 years? Tell me about the timeless entertainment developed between 2200 BC and 1200 BC. Tell me how its audience today is bigger and more enthusiastic than ever.

Or is it possible that people have an easier time appreciating cultural products from 30 years ago than 3000 years ago?

The Old Testament certainly has a few more readers these days

The Old Testament...

1. Is not and has not been considered entertainment.

2. Is considered obsolete by both Christians (preferring the New Testament and a variety of more or less formal commentaries) and Jews (preferring the Talmud and its very formalized commentaries).

In what sense is it supposed to be timeless? How can a timeless work be so outdated as to embarrass its notional devotees when you bring it up?

Fortnite is a whole other beast, the game is out there for actually more than a year and is still kicking ass and being on top by a margin, none of the above was anywhere similar, and yet, they are still a thing.