Re:Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament
by jandrese on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @04:57PM
(#18915849)
That sort of assumes that the UK is all hunky dory after it leaves. If it gets slammed with an immediate recession/raising unemployment/etc... then that's leverage the EU has to convince other members to stay.
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Agreed, and frankly, the whole process has been such a calamity that if I were an EU country leader I wouldn't even attempt to exit without a very strong mandate for a detailed, specific and clear process of leaving.
That's certainly a possibility too, but do you think it's one that EU leaders are willing to bet the future of their superstate on?
The UK has a lot going for it. It might not be hunky-dory immediately after leaving, but there's plenty to suggest that the UK will do just fine in the medium to long term.
Re:Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament
by dragonwriter on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @06:08PM
(#18916579)
> That's certainly a possibility too, but do you think it's one that EU leaders are willing to bet the future of their superstate on?
The alternative is betting it on the idea that giving a departing UK additional special favors won't accelerate centrifugal movements elsewhere in the union. An easy exit is the last thing the EU wants to demonstrate.
> It might not be hunky-dory immediately after leaving, but there's plenty to suggest that the UK will do just fine in the medium to long term.
The immediate term is what has the greatest impact in terms of a rush for the exits, though.
I think tourism will drop drastically, all of my European friends try to go one last time before Brexit - I found that interesting.
That goes both ways. I'm visiting Estonia in March, before we leave, deliberately. After? There are plenty of other places in the world that I haven't seen and I would like to. If the EU continues to be awkward then my family and I will go elsewhere.
Imagine what would happen to Spain or Portugal's economies if tourism from the UK dropped considerably?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Spain#Arrivals_by_c...