This is ridiculous Brexiteer fantasy. The UK will have no measure of success in the short to medium term in a no deal scenario; it will be absolutely catastrophic.

It's meaningless to speculate what might happen in a fantasy scenario a decade or more later, but we know for a fact that the UK would be initially hurt much more badly by no deal than the EU.

If anything, no deal should convince Eurosceptics in other countries that they just cannot sell this fantasy to their constituents anymore.

The UK is the EU's second largest single export market for goods. Go figure.

What nonsense. The people most worried about no deal are the Germans. You seem be missing much of what's going on around you. Pro-EU is pro-Titanic.

Living in Germany, nobody here cares about Brexit. They don't show it in the news much. General opinion across my circles is that the UK should do whatever they want (leave or stay), but that they should stop wasting EU's politician's time with it.

So no, Germans at least are not worried about no deal. I don't think anyone talks much about Brexit in the EU, except for Britain. I don't think anyone is worried at all.

In all fairness, why would anyone outside of Britain even care ? Whether Britain wants to stay or leave the EU with or without a deal is entirely up to them. The rest of the EU or the world doesn't (and shouldn't have) any kind of say on that.

If you ask me it's pretty pathetic that Brexit hasn't already happened.

So put your money. Make some short positions on Euro.

And I would argue the opposite - the departure of the UK will leave the EU stronger. People will see what kind of clusterfuck it creates and they will learn that capital investors do not like such a mess.

While countries in the EU (especially Ireland - THE English speaking country successor in the EU) will enjoy the diverted cashflows into their economies.

If there is going to be any domino effect at all, it is going to be the resurrection of the Independence of Scotland which will most likely want to join EU at some point after that.

I would even argue that the EU will find happiness at least in a sense that they got rid of a member that enjoyed exclusive rights (no Euro, no Schendgen) which will make the path easier for the "United States of Europe" model.

Regarding the "afford" bit, the only party that can't afford that is the UK - the UK imports 55% of "stuff" from the EU, and exports 50% to the EU. The EU27 exports to the UK are 16% which puts it behind the US.

Finally, most of those anti-EU movements are a joke as they are tied with outsider parties partly funded by Russian money and some fake-news campaigns. Also, having Poland in that list is a mistake, Poland is one of the biggest benefitors from the membership, and there are no such movements at all. The only thing they are upset is the two-speed EU which is another topic altogether.

- http://time.com/4955503/germany-elections-2017-far-right-rus... - https://www.thelocal.de/20180522/russian-payment-for-afd-lea... - https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/marine-le-pen-s-brush-wi...

It makes me so happy to read intelligent discourse.

That sort of assumes that the UK is all hunky dory after it leaves. If it gets slammed with an immediate recession/raising unemployment/etc... then that's leverage the EU has to convince other members to stay.

Agreed, and frankly, the whole process has been such a calamity that if I were an EU country leader I wouldn't even attempt to exit without a very strong mandate for a detailed, specific and clear process of leaving.

That's certainly a possibility too, but do you think it's one that EU leaders are willing to bet the future of their superstate on?

The UK has a lot going for it. It might not be hunky-dory immediately after leaving, but there's plenty to suggest that the UK will do just fine in the medium to long term.

> That's certainly a possibility too, but do you think it's one that EU leaders are willing to bet the future of their superstate on?

The alternative is betting it on the idea that giving a departing UK additional special favors won't accelerate centrifugal movements elsewhere in the union. An easy exit is the last thing the EU wants to demonstrate.

> It might not be hunky-dory immediately after leaving, but there's plenty to suggest that the UK will do just fine in the medium to long term.

The immediate term is what has the greatest impact in terms of a rush for the exits, though.

I think tourism will drop drastically, all of my European friends try to go one last time before Brexit - I found that interesting.

That goes both ways. I'm visiting Estonia in March, before we leave, deliberately. After? There are plenty of other places in the world that I haven't seen and I would like to. If the EU continues to be awkward then my family and I will go elsewhere.

Imagine what would happen to Spain or Portugal's economies if tourism from the UK dropped considerably?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Spain#Arrivals_by_c...

But surely the best move for the EU in that situation is to offer the worst deal possible, take it and you get fucked over, making staying in the union more attractive and you have a nice example to show anyone else who considers leaving? I don't get how you think that the EU would offer a sweeter deal to allow the UK to leave easier?