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Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet by yen223 on Thursday November 15, 2018 @06:57PM (#18464721)
My personal favourite quick-and-dirty trick: A quick way to estimate any distribution's median is to draw 5 random samples. There's a >90% chance that the median is between the biggest and the smallest value.
Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet by AstralStorm on Friday November 16, 2018 @05:08AM (#18467745)
The final bit is complete bunkum for an unknown distribution. Whether the distribution is monotonic and if not, how symmetric, is the major determinant of occurrence of such result. Giving a flat number is completely bogus.
Re:Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet by yen223 on Friday November 16, 2018 @06:46AM (#18468091)
I don't understand what you mean. It doesn't actually matter what shape the distribution takes. That figure is derived entirely from what the "median" means, i.e. a random sample has 50% chance of being greater than the median, and 50% chance of being lower than it.

A bit of maths would show that the probability that all 5 samples lie entirely above or entirely below the median (i.e. the median is NOT between the greatest and the smallest value) is 1/16. That gives you a 15/16 (= 93.75%) chance that the median is contained within the bounds.