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A comment on Can we rule out near-term AGI? [video]. Parent comment

Re:Can we rule out near-term AGI? [video] by wycs on Thursday November 08, 2018 @11:23AM (#18407344)
>...Then he basically asserts that we can extrapolate the near-term availability of tons more compute power from Moore’s Law, which is where he lost me.

That's not what he's asserting. Even with Moore's law dead, OpenAI claims there is significant room with ASICs, analog computing, and simply throwing more money at the problem. There is a ton of low-hanging fruit in Non-Von Neumann architectures. We should expect it to be plucked, as we have huge use case which is potentially limitlessly profitable.

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Re:Can we rule out near-term AGI? [video] by simonh on Thursday November 08, 2018 @11:31AM (#18407425)
That's how I take it as well, as I said in another comment it is a compelling pitch. And yes he's not talking about Moore's Law, but how much compute is actually being dedicated to DLNN's simply because the value of doing so is going up so fast.
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Re:Can we rule out near-term AGI? [video] by foobiekr on Thursday November 08, 2018 @11:33AM (#18407433)
The video boils down to “more compute => AGI.” It’s silly and specious.
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Re:Can we rule out near-term AGI? [video] by iotb on Thursday November 08, 2018 @02:33PM (#18409179)
Accelerating the efficiency of an optimization algorithm doesn't get you AGI, this should be clear by now. As for fielding such systems, one quick way to destroy humanity to a degree is to turn everything into a glorified optimization problem which will no doubt be turned against people to maximize profit.
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Re:Can we rule out near-term AGI? [video] by red75prime on Thursday November 08, 2018 @03:09PM (#18409509)
If you'll accelerate AIXI (optimization algorithm) [0], you'll get (real-time) AGI.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIXI

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Re:Can we rule out near-term AGI? [video] by iotb on Thursday November 08, 2018 @03:20PM (#18409605)
If only this wasn't an fundamentally flawed theory that isn't scalable based on computational complexity and information theory.
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Re:Can we rule out near-term AGI? [video] by red75prime on Thursday November 08, 2018 @03:37PM (#18409755)
Approximations to AIXI are computable.
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