News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by pkulak on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:33PM (#17982273)
No one thinks that you just hook up ML to a camera and you're done. Literally everyone working on this only uses ML for identification. When that Model X crashed into a highway divider, it was because the lines on the road were very faint and there was a fork in the line that actually wasn't the _real_ lane line. The car followed that by mistake, but only because of the misidentification of the lane line.

How are more sensors going to tell the difference between a plastic bag and a cat? How does lidar tell you which car is parked on the side of the road and which one is in your path? Relying on a dozen sensors seems like the crutch to me. Nothing about our current world has been designed for lidar and radar. It was designed for binocular vision. Sure, if your only goal is to not hit things at low speed in perfect weather, lidar is great. But you can't get much further than that.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by mikedh on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:36PM (#17983309)
If the Model X in your example had LIDAR, it would have been able to build up a decently accurate collision model of the world, which it could have then used to say "there is an object in the path I'm on, maybe I shouldn't plow into it." As opposed to relying on implicit and apparently unreliable cues like lane markers. That particular fatal crash seems like a sensors and geometry problem.

"Nothing about our current world has been designed for lidar and radar. It was designed for binocular vision."

Really? Was the world designed for binocular vision, or is it just three dimensional?

Having more sensors, especially when they have different failure modes seems like the only possible way to create a reliable system. LIDAR isn't super dense, but generally has accurate returns. Binocular vision sucks on untextured objects, like the side of a white truck in the fatal Model S collision. Why wouldn't you want the crutch of both types of measurement?

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by pkulak on Friday September 14, 2018 @02:15PM (#17989480)
> If the Model X in your example had LIDAR, it would have been able to build up a decently accurate collision model of the world

No it wouldn't. The whole problem with avoiding stationary objects is that they are _everywhere_. Do you really think radar and vision didn't "see" the barrier? Should it have known that it was in it's path? For sure. But that has nothing to do with sensors. Stationary objects are in our paths constantly while we drive, but we tend not to hit them because they are usually only temporarily so. At 80 mph the difference between a parked car being in our path and not, at the stopping distance of over 300 feet, is only a degree or two of wheel turn. We have enough information. Acting on it appropriately every single second of operation is the problem.

> Really? Was the world designed for binocular vision...

Yes. That's why we have road signs, stripes on the road, reflectors, lights on cars, lights hung over the road which light up in different colors to indicate right of way, etc. LIDAR is useless with all of the most important signals on our roads.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by gaius on Friday September 14, 2018 @03:32AM (#17985376)
Was the world designed for binocular vision

Ermm, actually yes, in the sense that anything human made was designed for and by those with binocular vision themselves.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by 01100011 on Thursday September 13, 2018 @05:03PM (#17982568)
Well, my optical sensors(i.e. eyes) provide me with enough information to discriminate a cat from a bag, so I suppose with enough processing we should be able to do the same with a control system. Cars have an added advantage that their vision systems could work in lower light and non-optical wavelengths. I don't see any fundamental issues with getting self-driving cars working. It may not happen in 5 years, but it will happen.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by xyhopguy on Thursday September 13, 2018 @05:33PM (#17982834)
The tough part about this line of reasoning is you can't tease apart the discriminatory power of human knowledge from human vision. How good does our expert system need to be? How good do our sensors need to be? I'm not so sure this is an easy to question to resolve
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by wpietri on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:34PM (#17983294)
Exactly. Children have decent hand-eye coordination as toddlers. By 3 or 4, they can drive toy cars; by 5 they're riding bikes. But it takes them another decade or more to have the knowledge and judgment needed to drive a car in traffic. And even then they're not great; teens have a crash rate something like 3x other drivers.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by thereisnospork on Thursday September 13, 2018 @08:09PM (#17983785)
Because of immaturity, not cognitive or physical capability. Kids start racing go karts as young as five - and that's a far more difficult, requiring fast reflexes, precise car control, and situational awareness. It's a far more challenging task than an average commute.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by chemicalnovae on Thursday September 13, 2018 @11:39PM (#17984522)
Not really, racing carts is primarily about the ability to control the thing under very well defined conditions (read: much better than your average 3 lane highway with hundreds of other road users) with other road users with the exact same end goal.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by wpietri on Friday September 14, 2018 @12:20AM (#17984645)
Exactly. "Immaturity" includes a big lack of detailed domain knowledge and domain-specific judgment, which is one of the things I think is going to be very hard to teach to computers.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by joesb on Friday September 14, 2018 @02:47AM (#17985176)
I think domain specific judgement is what computers excel than human.

What human has advantage of is utilizing knowledge in unrelated domain to another domain.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by wpietri on Saturday September 15, 2018 @01:34AM (#17993141)
Depends on what you mean by "domain", I suppose. But driving is a very broad domain. One has to understand human custom, human psychology, and human ethics, for example. As well as the behavior of wildlife, some applied meteorology, and a fair bit of understanding of both law and police practice. To a computer, these might be unrelated domains, but they aren't if you put a computer behind the wheel.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by thanatropism on Thursday September 13, 2018 @05:29PM (#17982788)
Yes, but your machine learning algos are much much better.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by eddieplan9 on Thursday September 13, 2018 @05:31PM (#17982805)
An intelligence animal being able to do something != "with enough processing we should be able to do the same with a control system".
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by ddoolin on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:01PM (#17983049)
Why not?
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by pretendscholar on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:15PM (#17983154)
One possible answer would be that we aren't intelligent enough to create such systems. I don't think that's true but its a possibility.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by majewsky on Thursday September 13, 2018 @08:13PM (#17983806)
> we aren't intelligent enough to create such systems

Evolution suggests that you can, in fact, create systems that are more intelligent than what came before them.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by mattnewport on Thursday September 13, 2018 @10:58PM (#17984401)
Evolution achieves that in part by a callous disregard for individual lives. The intelligences that evolution has produced are built on an unimaginable pile of corpses. Even Uber doesn't seem quite as willing as mother nature to spend quite so many lives to achieve incremental improvements.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by KKKKkkkk1 on Thursday September 13, 2018 @11:47PM (#17984551)
What do you mean "no one"? Press coverage of Waymo is full of references to engineers who are teaching cars and cars that are learning. The AI car is a big part of the hype.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by tomp on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:55PM (#17982482)
> It was designed for binocular vision

Does binocular vision even matter at such distances (i.e. beyond a few meters)? I thought it was only effective for relatively close objects.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by teraflop on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:00PM (#17983048)
Sure, as long as you have reasonably well-calibrated cameras and optics.

Back-of-the-envelope calculation: assuming 1920x1080 camera sensors with a 90-degree horizontal field of view, each pixel covers a visual angle of approximately 0.001 radians. If you have two cameras separated by 5 feet horizontally, and your measurements are accurate to within a pixel, then you can measure the distance to an object 500 feet away with roughly 10% accuracy. That's a reasonably conservative following distance at typical highway speeds.

And that's just from a single parallax measurement. By using other visual cues (e.g. apparent size of an object whose physical dimensions are known) and averaging measurements across multiple frames, you can get a more accurate measurement.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by tomp on Thursday September 13, 2018 @07:04PM (#17983485)
Ah, I meant for humans. As in, how much is depth-perception actually necessary for driving... Obviously, humans also use higher-level cues, which IMO are much more important.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by teraflop on Thursday September 13, 2018 @07:53PM (#17983722)
Whoops, my bad for skimming the comments and overlooking the context of your question.

I found a page [1] that summarizes the level of visual acuity required to obtain a driver's license in each US state. It appears that all states will potentially issue a license to someone with vision in only one eye. Some states impose additional conditions, such as requiring a favorable report from an ophthalmologist, limiting the maximum speed, or restricting the driver to vehicles with outside rear-view mirrors (to compensate for the loss of peripheral vision on one side).

[1]: http://lowvision.preventblindness.org/daily-living-2/state-v...

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by monocularvision on Thursday September 13, 2018 @07:31PM (#17983626)
As evidenced by my username, I can say confidently that you are correct. The depth perception gained from two eyes is only good at very close ranges and doesn’t play a big factor in most driving situations.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by BugsJustFindMe on Thursday September 13, 2018 @07:39PM (#17983665)
> How are more sensors going to tell the difference between a plastic bag and a cat?

Infrared transparency? Radar cross section? There are so many ways. Sensor doesn't just mean "webcam".

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by deepnotderp on Thursday September 13, 2018 @09:57PM (#17984195)
Lidar gives you high precision depth, so you can tell whether or not the car is parked or in the lane.