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Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by save_ferris on Thursday September 13, 2018 @02:35PM (#17981117)
> But in most of America we need to get back to the point where cars are no longer a necessity

While I completely agree with you, the cultural barriers to this are petty much a non-starter in much of the country. I love not owning a car and being able to rely on mass transit where I live (Austin, TX), but Texas is so culturally opposed to anything like this.

A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor, and the car represents independence and freedom. Go where you want, when you want (but you're gonna be bumper-to-bumper most of the way there.)

I hate that mentality, but driverless cars represent the "have your cake and eat it too" solution. It more closely aligns with the culture of driving here in the US, while also claiming numerous commercial and infrastructure benefits.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by dpc59 on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:00PM (#17981375)
­>A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor

That's because it is. I had to take the metro in Montréal to get to work this week, hadn't taken it in months because I usually bike, it's such a shitty experience. It smells bad, it's hot, it's filled with tired people that don't feel like going to work (you feel it in the air), beggars harass you, it's slow (it can take 3x as much time as riding a bike to get where you want to) and it's operating past maximum capacity during rush hour. I haven't even gotten started on when service is interrupted and you show up over an hour late to work or class. Anybody who can afford a bit more for reliability and comfort will spend it without looking back.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by tomjakubowski on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:31PM (#17981654)
I can't speak for Montreal, but there are countless counterexamples of cities in wealthy countries (not as wealthy as the US) where metro users are drawn from more or less every income level. Turns out you can actually make riding a metro into a good experience with a bit of effort.

New York, Chicago, Tokyo, Taipei, London, Berlin, Munich come immediately to mind.

And as sibling commenters have pointed out, in some places even smaller cities and towns have excellent public transit networks that pretty much everyone uses (maybe not always, but when convenient). Freiburg, Germany is one example I've seen.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by zaphod12 on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:41PM (#17981756)
Don't know if I'd go so far as to say riding the subway in NYC is "good" experience, but I'll certainly agree that it's one shared by people across the socioeconomic spectrum.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by stochastic_monk on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:08PM (#17983093)
Paris public transit is stellar, fast, easy, relatively clean, and reasonably priced. I never once wished I had a car at my disposal in the city.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by NTDF9 on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:56PM (#17981932)
Hongkong as well! My god that was some unreal efficiency in subway systems. NYC is a poor mans system in comparison.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by archagon on Friday September 14, 2018 @02:21AM (#17985089)
In St. Petersburg or Moscow, it feels as natural as walking.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by SlowRobotAhead on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:43PM (#17981784)
Taipei... yes, absolutely. That was a great experience and easy to use.

NYC... altright, better than 15 years ago but still not great at all. Not as good as Germany or DC.

Tokyo... lol, no! While clean and efficient, it’s a joke that you have different rail stations owned by different companies, different cards that may work on each other but probably not. The ticket machines are almost all cash only. And instructions in other languages might have well used Google translate. Tokyo was one of the more difficult public transport systems I’ve used and I’ve been around the world a bit.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by cevn on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:00PM (#17981968)
Suica cards work practically everywhere. You can poke a button to use english, usually clearly labeled. You need cash everywhere in Japan so not sure why that surprised you. My experience with Tokyo metro was pretty good. I've never seen a metro as well-organized despite 15 private rail companies splitting the system. The only problem is the operating hours, the last train rush is insane some nights.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by SlowRobotAhead on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:13PM (#17983140)
The English button does work great... But doesn't tell you a DAMN THING about which line to transfer to get to some location just how much it costs. And when you need to transfer green to blue, good luck, because you better know that this one blue arrow pointing left means you need to go upstairs, cross the street, go into an entirely different station and then go down two flights of stairs with basically no more directions in English.

I was surprised that the machines only took cash, but it was annoying as hell that we were 10yen short and the nearest ATM was 2 blocks away under the street then back up again.

The rush for the 11-11:30pm trains are nuts. I've never seen so many black suits filled by unsmiling faces than the last train out near Tsukiji.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by seanmcdirmid on Thursday September 13, 2018 @09:58PM (#17984201)
Have you tried using google maps? In my experience, it works great for Tokyo transit options.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by SlowRobotAhead on Friday September 14, 2018 @07:00PM (#17991773)
Next time I'm in Japan I'll definitely try that!
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by alistairSH on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:36PM (#17982309)
Not as good as Germany or DC.

Did you just claim DC public transit is good? Wow. Coherent bus lines are few and far between. Light rail is non-existent. And the Metro is falling apart at the seems... Prone to excessive delays. Entire lines are brought down for extended periods to perform decades of deferred maintenance. There's no ring routes - to get from Dulles to Rockville, you have to go all the way downtown and back out again. The system was built without consideration for express lines. And neither of the DC airports are on the same line as Union Station.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by ahyattdev on Friday September 14, 2018 @01:08AM (#17984813)
A ring route from Bethesda to Largo is under construction and it's called the Purple Line. Metrorail could be better and has it's own shortcomings but it is one of the best in the US and far from nonexistent.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by alistairSH on Friday September 14, 2018 @08:29AM (#17986694)
I said light rail (trams, streetcars) is non-existent. There is a test line in South DC, but nothing that’s actually useful for commuting or getting across the city.

My wife tried to use Metro for her Reston->downtown commute. It was a disaster - rail delays made it completely untenable. Then she tried the bus. It was more consistent, but overcrowded. She ended up driving 4/5 days because it was faster, cheaper, and more consistent.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by SlowRobotAhead on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:08PM (#17983095)
It's easy to buy a card, and get on the right track. Your day to day minutia is of little concern to people that just need to get on and get somewhere.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by alistairSH on Thursday September 13, 2018 @07:23PM (#17983583)
Except when the train isn’t running at all. Or the rail catches on fire. Both of which are shockingly common.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by innocenat on Thursday September 13, 2018 @09:56PM (#17984191)
> The ticket machines are almost all cash only. And instructions in other languages might have well used Google translate.

That's probably only hold true for (Western) tourists. And I don't think it is fair to compare on that. Tokyo (and Japan in general) rail system can be really intimidating but that's just because its sheer size, but once you know your way around it, it's gotta be among the best rail system in the world.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by 100ideas on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:40PM (#17981737)
My wife & I live in San Francisco. SF Muni fares are a flat $2.50.

So for the two of us, a Muni trip is

  - total cost: $5
  - usually takes 30-60 min to get wherever we want to go in the city. 
  - we need to to figure out the optimal route, schedule, and entry & exit stops. 
  - we need to make sure we will arrive at the stop on-time.
  - we need to walk 5-10 min to closest stop on either end
This process is familiar to anyone who's taken public transportation. In general, I think it's a great system. Muni network coverage is pretty good in SF.

However... a low-cost Uber or Lyfts pool ride for two is

  - total cost: $5-12 (same serice area as Muni)
  - duration: 15-45 min
  - we don't have to plan the route or schedule
  - we don't have to worry about going to a remote pick-up stop on-time
  - we get dropped off directly at our destination
So, in the best case scenario, a lyft line ride is the same cost as Muni but so so much better in terms of value to us. Even when it is 2x as expensive, for us, the extra $5 is totally worth it. I know that's not true for everyone, but I personally am amazed that the cost of using the cheapest ride share option is often only 1x-2x the cost of using the billion-dollar municipal public transportation system.

Of course, here in SF ride share vehicles are definitely not allowed to use the special public-transportation-only lanes of some of the major roads, which remain reserved for the exclusive use of Muni buses and taxis to improve their transit times.

(edited to fix indentation)

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by runarberg on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:01PM (#17983054)
The muni system is one of the worst functional bus system that I have ever encountered.

Sure there are worse systems that don’t have any coverage (El Paso for example) but they are not functioning so I don’t count those.

Problems with muni include:

    - To many stops (like every two blocks).
    - Hardly any dedicated bus lanes, bus gets stuck
      in traffic too many times.
    - Slow and un-intuitive routes.
    - Small and overcrowded busses.
    - No transfer to BART or ferries.
I recently came across a muni map from the mid 80s and it was almost identical to an up to date one. That might give an idea of how stagnant the system is. The few good things I find about the muni system is that it has good coverage, frequent busses[1] and is cheap.

[1]: Sometimes too frequent, I sometimes see the 14 being stuck in congestion of other 14s

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by photos_victim on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:27PM (#17982228)
This is cherry-picking. It always makes more sense to take a car service when multiple people start and end at the same places and can easily coordinate (e.g. a married couple). But this tells us nothing about the average outcome. The _average_ car contains only 1 person.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by 100ideas on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:31PM (#17982258)
Does anyone have back-of-the-napkin estimates of total passenger throughput for central public transportation vs ride share transportation for any metropolitan area?

If public transit i.e. Muni serves 10x or 100x riders each day vs ride sharing than I see your point... I think.

Wait. Maybe you could spell it out?

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by photos_victim on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:47PM (#17982407)
Don't bother with napkins. The data is open. TNC trips average about 150k / weekday [1], BART carries about 415k trips / weekday [2], and Muni carries about 750k [3]. Thus, public transportation carries about 8x more people, with the caveat that not all BART journeys start or end in SF.

On the other hand, 99% of vehicle trips in SF are either private cars or TNCs.

Neither of these was my point, though. My point was that comparing cost between a per-trip price and a per-person price will always favor the former when there are multiple people. But most trips don't involve multiple people, which is why such an analysis is besides the point.

1: http://tncstoday.sfcta.org/ 2: https://www.bart.gov/about/reports/ridership 3: https://sfgov.org/scorecards/transportation/ridership

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by dgreensp on Thursday September 13, 2018 @05:18PM (#17982702)
If we’re comparing a bus or train to a Lyft or Uber carpool or line of some sort, wouldn’t you expect it to be more cost effective to drive people around in buses rather than cars, even if the app coordinates things so that there are two people in the car? It sounds like buses are not very cost effective.

I think what’s actually happening is Uber drivers are paid peanuts and provide and maintain their own vehicles. There’s a technology innovation (eg the efficiency of knowing if and where someone needs a ride) coupled with a labor innovation in paying drivers less than minimum wage.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by 100ideas on Thursday September 13, 2018 @07:07PM (#17983495)
Data! Awesome!

Huh. This is interesting. The "Learn More About TNCs" button on the page you linked to leads to some more facts, including:

> "On a typical weekday, TNCs make more than 170,000 vehicle trips within San Francisco, approximately 12 times the number of taxi trips, representing 15% of all intra-San Francisco vehicle trips." - https://www.sfcta.org/tncstoday

So: 1,333,333 intra-San Francisco vehicle trips each day, including Transportation Network Companies (TNCs), and from your other links, 1,165,000 MUNI+BART trips per day, for a total of 2,498,333 rides per day

The population of the city during business hours is ~1,100,000... Oh of course, most people make round trips so it makes sense for the total number of rides to be >2x the city population.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by 100ideas on Thursday September 13, 2018 @07:17PM (#17983554)
The reason I brought this up was to wonder how insane (just a little? or totally impossible?!) it would be if 100% of public transportation was serviced by "TNCs" in the city.

> "On an average weekday, more than 5,700 TNC vehicles operate on San Francisco streets during the peak period"[sfcta.org/tncstoday]

So if TNCs provide ~30 trips a day, and all 1,165,000 MUNI+BART passengers switched to TNCs, there would have to be an additional ~40k TNC vehicles in the city :).

Maybe it would work if they were really, really small.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by dionidium on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:38PM (#17981719)
Mass transit will always be viewed as the lesser option where it is the lesser option.

In cities that were designed or entirely remade to support the automobile, the automobile works better than everything else. This is almost a tautology, but it's remarkable how often it's overlooked in this discussion. If cities were re-designed around transit (with more density, smaller roads, and more space for alternative transportation modes), then transit would work better and cars would be worse. †

In summary, yes, obviously cars work better in cities designed for cars! But cities that work well for cars aren't a natural feature of the universe. It took a lot of work to get them to look like that.

† An important implication of this is that transit will never overtake the automobile in low-density, sprawl-heavy cities. Transit use is high where the transit infrastructure is good and driving is painful. Both things have to be true. ††

And the tension here is direct. Sprawl-heavy areas can't support good transit infrastructure and high-density, pedestrian-friendly areas are awful to drive in. A choice for one is a vote against the other.

†† This is why arguments about the superiority of cars based on revealed preference are usually spurious. If you put a light rail system in a town built for cars, then people will keep using the thing the town was built for. But those people are revealing their preference for cars in an environment built for cars. Where the built environment is different, people behave differently.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by abawany on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:20PM (#17981564)
My experience in my multiple Montreal soujourns has been so different that I consider the Metro to be a jewel. I admit that some stations are grungier than others (once I had to duck an errant basketball at Cote-des-Neiges) but that was once out of around 100 trips. I do agree that the air conditioning is marginal.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by paganel on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:26PM (#17981608)
> That's because it is

It largely depends on the country or even city. Me and my gf went to Switzerland by car a couple of years ago (we live in Eastern Europe) and I’d had expected that we’d visit different parts of the country by car. What happened once we got there is that we “forgot” the car in the hotel’s parking lot for a week and we did all our travel by train, it was wonderful. Even traveling inside the city itself (we were based in Lausanne) was a very nice thing, I’ve started building a soft spot in my heart for the city’s trolley-buses (electric public transport rocks, btw, always has, alwsys will).

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by cjslep on Friday September 14, 2018 @03:01AM (#17985223)
American living in Switzerland. From what I understand, access to public transportation seems to be considered a basic human right here. No one is expected to have to buy and upkeep car maintenance.

While the electrification of the mass transit systems is super nice, unfortunately it came about because of the World Wars. Switzerland was hit really hard, and no one wanted to trade their precious coal away (Switzerland had no coal mines). Thus out of sheer necessity they began electrifying all the trains. So unfortunately there's not replicable policies other countries can use to achieve what Switzerland has achieved in terms of electrification, so it'd take some creativity.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by resu_nimda on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:50PM (#17981859)
A lot of people think ... the car represents independence and freedom. Go where you want, when you want.

Well that's because it's actually true for a lot of people. Sure, there's no freedom in commuting between SF and south bay by car, or navigating the most dense downtown environments. But I definitely use my car on a daily basis for things that would be impossible or incredibly time consuming by transit. And yes, many of the transit patrons around here would probably prefer a car if they could afford it. Most places are not like NYC where the subway is often the most effective option regardless of wealth.

I don't think it's really feasible for more spread out suburban environments to implement effective mass transit. The anti-car idealists often seem to forget that there are a lot of people living outside of dense city centers.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by beneTleilax on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:03PM (#17981409)
Hmmm, weird idea here, but maybe that's the answer then?

If self driving cars are terrible at coping with the chaos humans grit their teeth and deal with, maybe software for engineering cooperative bumper-to-bumper traffic jams involving clogs of slow-moving self driving cars, that reduce the road speeds to constant 20 MPH (the /constant/ part being important), and eliminate chaotic lane changing to near zero for the group, is one way to bootstrap self driving cars.

In other words, low-performance self driving cars might work fine, and since people can lounge about, and disengage from the guidance and navigation tasks, why not go slower?

Then, add swarming to the mix, such that cars going to the same place, all travel slowly in a single group.

It's against the law to obstruct traffic, or violate minimum speed requirements, so certain laws would need to change. For example, zero emission vehicles can idle indefinitely, and software-controlled vehicles can interface with an external control network, approved to operate in such ways, with points of contact at operations centers for resolving problems, technical or otherwise.

So change laws to permit idle electric vehicles (in more places and controlled, desginated places, not just anywhere), and permit large slow moving groups to occupy certain corridors, at certain times, when jammed traffic is a known quantity, that driverless systems aren't the cause of. Driverless networks can cut into a slice of the jam, and possibly improve outcomes for members only at first, and eventually boost efficiency within the jammed system by augmenting flow through expert participation.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by stephengillie on Thursday September 13, 2018 @02:48PM (#17981252)
I'd like to join in on the bikeshedding mass transit into solar-powered self-driving car-apartments that can always drive anywhere with no congestion for free, need no maintenance, and aren't controlled by a monolithic entity with an abysmal reputation for profit over users.

Mass transit is expensive, boring, and thankless. How many bus companies have ever applied to YC?

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by anamexis on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:45PM (#17981803)
Chariot, for one. (For some definition of "bus")

https://www.chariot.com/

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by curun1r on Thursday September 13, 2018 @08:47PM (#17983940)
> How many bus companies have ever applied to YC

Does Remix (https://www.remix.com/) count?

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by lighttower on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:03PM (#17981997)
Bridj which went bust a little while back. It was awesome. I was an early adopter in Boston
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by aij on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:41PM (#17981755)
I live in the countryside but work in the city. This is in the US, so there is no bus I could take for my daily commute, though I've lived in countries where a similar arrangement would have a bus route within walking/biking distance.

The thing is, if there were a bus, it would have to stop to pick up / drop off passengers along the way, which would make it so much slower than driving that it really would be for the poor. I've been on such buses as a kid. Even when traffic is bad, bumper-to-bumper in a car (taking the fastest route) is going to be faster than bumper-to-bumper in a bus (taking a more circuitous route and stopping frequently along the way)

I think the only way buses will stop being for the poor, is when they stop become faster than more expensive alternatives. (Or at least nearly as fast and significantly cheaper.) If you can save a lot of time by spending a little bit of money, which would you choose? What if you could spend a lot of money but it wouldn't save you any (or much) time?

In cities where congestion is a major problem, dedicated bus lanes/roads can help balance the equation in favor of buses. Usually there aren't enough dedicated bus routes though. (I might point out that the people deciding how to balance bus/car traffic are not the people who ride the bus.)

I still think self-driving cars are far in the future, but I find them appealing because they would make "buses" more efficient. A lot of the cost of operating buses is paying the drivers. To maximize economies of scale, buses are large, which means they have to make a lot of stops to pick up and drop off passengers, which in turn makes them slow. Self-driving buses could be a lot smaller and wouldn't need to make as many stops. If they could tell that no one will be boarding or deboarding at a given stop, they could skip it entirely and take a shorter path instead. At some point, the lines between bus/ridesharing/taxi get pretty blurry.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by ntsplnkv2 on Thursday September 13, 2018 @06:36PM (#17983311)
The problem with buses isn't picking people up or stopping. It's just that without dedicated lanes or busways, they're not better than cars. Same traffic, + stops is a recipe for failure for people who can afford it. My bus takes a busway and skips huge traffic jams. I save 25 mins riding the bus and I don't pay to park.

> If they could tell that no one will be boarding or deboarding at a given stop, they could skip it entirely and take a shorter path instead.

Everytime selfdriving tech comes up people say things similar to this, this problem is 100% solvable now. Why are we waiting for self driving cars to solve this problem?

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by scythe on Thursday September 13, 2018 @09:28PM (#17984088)
>A lot of people think that mass transit is for the poor, and the car represents independence and freedom. Go where you want, when you want (but you're gonna be bumper-to-bumper most of the way there.)

What the hell is going on in Austin?

Bumper-to-bumper traffic happens mostly at commute hours in commercial zones and during special events. It's very much not the norm for driving at other times. To wit, I live in San Francisco, one of the densest and least car-friendly cities in the U.S., but the last time I returned from a road trip, I traversed the whole city corner-to-corner -- from crossing the Bay Bridge to arriving at my home near the zoo -- in less than fifteen minutes. Why? Because it was midnight! Cars provide unparalleled mobility for irregular trips outside of peak commuting times, even in the largest cities.

I wholeheartedly support deprioritizing car infrastructure and working towards a norm where most people do not drive to work, but I nonetheless believe that car ownership provides a lot of independence and ought to be accessible to the modal citizen, at least outside of the very dense coastal cities (SF/LA/NY). Cars work really well for irregular trips outside of rush hour. They work terribly when large amounts of people need to go to the same place at once.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by kwillets on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:05PM (#17982024)
I suspect that driverless cars will end up somewhere on the spectrum between buses and human-operated cars. They're extremely cautious and will be a lot slower than human-operated.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by dwighttk on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:45PM (#17982390)
>Go where you want, when you want (but you're gonna be bumper-to-bumper most of the way there.)

I can count on 1 hand (ok, maybe both hands) the number of times I've been in bumper-to-bumper traffic in my life. One of those was in Austin. There's lots of places to go that aren't big cities.

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by bunderbunder on Thursday September 13, 2018 @02:39PM (#17981149)
> driverless cars represent the "have your cake and eat it too" solution

<Insert obligatory Portal reference.>