Could US be the first in a few years? Given the outrage when Taiwanese president visited a Taiwanese coffee shop in LA last week.

European countries appear to be content to please the Chinese government, be it on trade or in academia.

Of course not. PRC is itself engaging in trade with Taiwan.

This is about handful of tiny countries who still maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. For example United States is not formally recognizing Taiwan as a country.

It's entirely possible if Taiwan has an even more pro-democracy government than it has now.

I can imagine China can easily sacrifice the entire trade with Taiwan if the sensitive issues are concerned.

Do you think China will gain more from censuring a country from engaging in trade with Taiwan? Has China ever done so?

They severely reduced the amount of trade with Norway for six years after Norway gave the Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident. That's not Taiwan, but I think that if they'd be willing to do that for a dissident, how much more so regarding Taiwan. The Chinese government has a solid history of attempting to control actions of other countries by "punishing" their businesses when they do something China doesn't like.