Leary

It's rather obvious Zvi is biased if you consider the totality of his work on China (since Covid to the current AI boom), not only because of his statement of facts or his policy positions but rather his writing style, which betrays his view the Chinese are somehow not only technologically but morally inferior. And he expresses them with an emotional valence similar to his treatment of Trump.

They call themselves rationalists but they don't apply their own theories, they think permanent authoritarianism is as bad as human extinction. It's a predictable offshoot from their own west coast US ideological origins.

And Sonnet 5.5 is more expensive than Opus 5.5 to hit that score on terminal bench!

Uploaded my code base and it forced switched to Opus 4.8 after thinking for 5 minutes even though I prompted it to not work on cybersecurity related things. Amazing.

news from 2025

“Large frontier developer”: a frontier developer that together with its affiliates collectively had annual gross revenues in excess of five hundred million dollars ($500,000,000) in the preceding calendar year.

So any large company training LLMs, no matter the capability, is considered a frontier developer?

Except that does make sense because the new country would be the weighted average of the average CO2 contribution for both Americans and Nigerians.

Amazing analysis, except for the fact China was dirt poor before communism.

No way. I read Noah Smith (number 1 economist on substack) every week and he says one must measure China in per capita terms for all the good stuff: GDP (preferably nominal), and in aggregate terms for all the bad stuff (pollution, carbon dioxide emissions).

Also, it's logically impossible for China to be good. I have found a mathematical proof:

1: Democracy is good

2: China is not a democracy

Therefore, obviously China is not good.

But how are you gonna foresee the total annihilation of the Chinese semi industry without Jordan the necromancer interpreting party documents for you?

Does anyone know which technology on this tree has the most descendents?

METR of only 2 hours and 15 minutes. Fast takeoff less likely.

GPQA Diamond: gpt-oss-120b: 80.1%, Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507: 81.1%

Humanity’s Last Exam: gpt-oss-120b (tools): 19.0%, gpt-oss-120b (no tools): 14.9%, Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507: 18.2%

Yes, instead of being a mere 6.5x less productive per capita in nominal terms than the US, China is 15x less productive!

Who should people believe, nighttime light data or their lying eyes?

Did it with https://sites.google.com/site/jiaxiongyao16/nighttime-lights...

USA (2013-2023 CAGR: 2.3%) 2014: 6.2% 2015: -5.3% 2016: -1.8% 2017: 15.2% 2018: -4.9% 2019: 4.5% 2020: -5.4% 2021: 6.7% 2022: 14.5% 2023: -3.6%

China (2013-2023 CAGR 7.9%) 2014: -1.7% 2015: -1.2% 2016: -5.1% 2017: 53.3% 2018: -1.0% 2019: 7.5% 2020: 6.5% 2021: 11.4% 2022: 4.2% 2023: 10.8%

0:10 into the video, that's light skinned to you?!

Translation:

You provide the capital and the data, we'll co-own the data centers share the models until Trump and the US government decide to shut it off as a bargaining chip.

They are not "English-first". Deepseek-R1, for example, reasons in Chinese when you ask it a question in Chinese.