Do you have a valuation methodology?
My biggest issue with BTC is that it's subject to how the market feels about it. There's no cash flow. When I buy USD, I can by 2yr treasuries yielding ~2.5%.
The market determines the price of anything based on supply and demand (which includes a risk calculation).
An investor might determine what they would be willing to pay for an asset (i.e. a fair valuation) and compare it to the market price. If it's selling for less than what they believe to be fair market value then it's a buy. The same methodology can be applied to sell decisions.
If I buy a house to let, I can create a model to project future cash flows derived from rent, costs, taxes etc. I can then discount the cash flows (DCF) with my target rate of return to get a valuation. Yes there are variables that are difficult to take into account i.e. likelihood of government default. It's not possible to apply a cash flow valuation to BTC.
Yes there is a market which determines the price of something. But that does not necessarily result in a reasonable price.
The way I see it, cryptocurrency gets a lot of its "value" from emotion--it signifies what people want to be true. Cryptocurrency is, in some ways, a dream incarnate. It's backed by nothing except the dreams of those who believe in it--and energy expenditure (if one believes that).
It's like a religion: Challenge the faith and you will be burned as a heretic, so-to-speak. I think that has a lot to do with why rational comments are down-voted so much on HN. You're assuming the discourse is rational when it is actually quite emotional. Cognitive dissonance abounds.
It is like calling people idiot because they bought btc @ 1000$ and then it dropped @ 360$. I really don't think those who bought at 1k are idiots but that's just my opinion and it's OK if other people have different opinion than mine.
Warm vibes.