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Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by mikece on Thursday June 07, 2018 @04:15PM (#17259807)
Coal emissions kill... which is why zero-cabon-emission nuclear power is essential for powering the base load of the green future. Though if the current rules prohibiting the recycling of partially spent fuel, lack of incentives for LFTR reactor research, streamlining regulations and environmental studies, and moving from gigawatt-scale reactors to designs using a cluster of SMR (small, modular reactors) isn't pursued then, unfortunately, it's probably better to ignore nuclear.
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by chris_va on Thursday June 07, 2018 @05:12PM (#17260316)
I work in a Climate and Energy R&D group, so while I agree it would be great if nuclear power was resurrected (being safer and cleaner than any other form of power, solar included, despite its representation in the media), it very likely will never happen--purely for economic reasons.

Ironically, it's wind and solar that finished off nuclear power. Renewable energy has high variability in supply, but sells power at zero marginal cost. That means grid demand becomes highly variable during the day.

Nuclear (and coal) are both systems with high capital costs and very low marginal cost. To be cost competitive, they both need to produce power 90%+ of the time to amortize the initial capital. However, with the current variability in demand, they can't get anywhere close to 90% demand from the grid.

This leaves a market opening for peaker plants with very low capital costs, notably natural gas and hydro in the US. Hydro is saturated, and combined with low-cost fuel due to the fracking boom, natural gas is exploding.

Basically, the net result of wind/solar is actually a wash, from an environmental standpoint. That will get better with HVDC interconnects (reduces variability of wind), but in general it is not happy outcome.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by pm90 on Thursday June 07, 2018 @05:35PM (#17260499)
I hope you can answer a theoretical question I've had about Nuclear energy for a long time: if instead of stopping the construction of new Nuclear plants, the US had continued to build more of them, would that have lead to a decrease in capital costs and enough of a Nuclear Energy Ecosystem that it would be cost-competitive with Coal, if not with Renewables? Or are the costs of safety-measures the main cost center for building new reactors?
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by chris_va on Thursday June 07, 2018 @07:15PM (#17261219)
If I had to guess, overly aggressive safety regulation adds about 50% to the cost. A lot of the cost is actually just in concrete (it is amazing how much concrete a nuclear plant uses), and concrete costs wouldn't have come down with volume.

Even if you relaxed the safety regulations, natural gas has an edge with fracking.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by wahern on Thursday June 07, 2018 @08:31PM (#17261588)
The engineering and construction requirements are costly and burdensome, but I don't think that explains the insane costs.

I think most of the market burden stems from the regulatory delay and uncertainty. That delay and uncertainty makes it impossible to quickly build plants, regardless of how stringent the engineering specifications. And if you can't quickly build one plant, you can't quickly build ten of them, and you lose the expertise and proficiency needed to build them cost-effectively.

I remember reading an article about the South Korean nuclear industry. At their peak they could build a nuclear power plant quickly, on time, and on budget. Presumably these plants adhered to Western standards. Repetition built project management proficiency and a skilled, specialized workforce.

Ultimately I don't blame the regulatory agencies, per se. I blame the mandate they've been given by a very fearful population. Industry doesn't know what will pass regulatory muster because the regulators are winging it because the public makes safety demands completely divorced from concrete science and engineering.

My takeaway is that if you're going to regulate, you better be darned sure what, why, and how you're going to regulate. If you (i.e. Joe Public, Senator Smith) can't answer those questions, then regulation will prove disastrous. If you can answer those questions well than the true regulatory burden will quickly become apparent and industry will adjust accordingly or exit, without all the confusion, bickering, and wasted resources.

It's like with GMOs: people against GMOs (or proposing strong oversight) can't articulate well why, how, or precisely which aspects of the industry they want to regulate. Which makes it easy for me to vote against propositions purporting to regulate the industry. A poorly articulated solution is no solution at all, and a poorly articulated problem is strong evidence there may not be any problem.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by Gibbon1 on Thursday June 07, 2018 @06:16PM (#17260808)
Not really answering your question but, from the IEA the capital cost of a nuclear plant is about 50% higher than a coal fired one. Although cost overruns over the last 15-20 years points to that being maybe too generous. That would indicate that safety issues are only about half to a third the cost problem.

Other problem is the long construction times. As the planning and construction time becomes a larger fraction of the payback time, the economics gets increasing bad. That's a problem for nuclear plants with 10-15 year construction time lines and 30 year payback. Compare with nat gas or solar plants with 2-5 year build outs. Worse nat gas plays back in 5-10 years.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by beat on Thursday June 07, 2018 @06:00PM (#17260677)
I find it helpful to look at how other countries handle nuclear, not just the US - particularly China and Russia, where "safety" and the usual fingerpointing about those treehugger liberal regulations simply don't apply. Did they scale out nuclear much more than we did? How much? With what technical innovations, if any?

And if their nuclear ambitions, in the end, didn't come to a whole lot more than ours did... well, why not? It wasn't "regulation", so there must be other structural factors at work, which may or may not be the same as ours.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by sheepmullet on Thursday June 07, 2018 @06:21PM (#17260843)
China is still expanding nuclear capacity with ~20 new reactors under construction.

They have not gone all in on nuclear and are exploring as many alternatives to coal as they can.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by beat on Thursday June 07, 2018 @07:28PM (#17261294)
China gets only 2% of its electricity from nuclear - a tenth of what the US accomplishes. New reactors will get them to 6%. This strongly suggests to me that environmental regulation is not the limiting factor.
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by sheepmullet on Thursday June 07, 2018 @09:03PM (#17261748)
> This strongly suggests to me that environmental regulation is not the limiting factor.

Why does it suggest that?

China has only been seriously trying to cut back on coal for ~10 years.

All it shows is that coal is cheaper than nuclear and that to a rapidly industrializing country cheap is more important than environmentally friendly.

On the other hand the US is shutting down plants and decreasing overall capacity.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by beat on Friday June 08, 2018 @10:07AM (#17265495)
Yes, but... whenever reading discussions about nuclear power, I'm told over and over that the reason we don't have more nuclear is because of over-regulation and irrational environmentalism, not other factors - that if we weren't so regulated, it'd be cheap and easy to do.

China, as you observed, has no qualms about "environmentally friendly", so according to America's nuclear proponents, China should have more nuclear than us, not less, since it's cheaper. This is not the case, ergo their argument is flawed.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by sheepmullet on Friday June 08, 2018 @06:31PM (#17270263)
> This is not the case, ergo their argument is flawed.

Your argument doesn't really make sense.

Nobody is arguing that nuclear is cheaper than dirty coal.

Proponents argue that it's cheap and orders of magnitude more environmentally friendly than burning dirty coal.

China is still very price conscious and are building out nuclear in an effort to reduce pollution - proving that the Chinese do believe nuclear can be done cheaply and safely.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by Spooky23 on Thursday June 07, 2018 @08:57PM (#17261720)
Not really. Nuclear plants don’t scale down. The same factors putting coal plants out of business impact nuclear — cheap, flexible gas and renewables.

With electricity, peak demand is king. It doesn’t make sense to build a billion dollar nuclear plant that isn’t needed except for August.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by ageofwant on Thursday June 07, 2018 @08:01PM (#17261460)
The primary cost of nuclear plants are due to the hyper-over regulation of the industry. If the same risk-mitigation requirements were in place for coal power stations costs would be comparable.

As it stands coal stations produce more nuclear waste than nuclear power plants https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-...

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by st26 on Thursday June 07, 2018 @07:11PM (#17261188)
Wonder if HVDC could increase the viability of nuclear. Colorado, for example, despite plenty of space and nearby uranium mines, doesn't have nuclear- supposedly because there isn't demand for that much power!

Nuclear seems to be one of those incredibly capital intensive projects where scale is king. If you could build one site as big as you wanted, wherever you wanted, that could sell every watt of power anywhere in the country- maybe that works a lot better for nuclear.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by mchannon on Thursday June 07, 2018 @04:39PM (#17260041)
Zero carbon emissions? The uranium drag line, trucks, ships, trains, and smelters are all fossil fuel powered, and that doesn't include the prodigious amounts of steel and cement needed for a nuclear plant. It might be less carbon-intensive than, say, oil, but it's certainly nowhere near zero.

LFTR reactors, if they actually had significant economic potential, wouldn't need incentives. India or China would have gone all-out on them, but the fact is they still require Uranium to get started, and even in theory they aren't much better than what we're currently using for fission-based power.

Ignoring both coal and nuclear is pretty much inevitable, as long as natural gas and renewables stay this cheap or cheaper.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by cornholio on Thursday June 07, 2018 @04:56PM (#17260183)
> The uranium drag line, trucks, ships, trains, and smelters are all fossil fuel powered, and that doesn't include the prodigious amounts of steel and cement needed for a nuclear plant.

There is considerably less ore mining and refining involved in nuclear compared to renewable, due to the orders of magnitude higher energy density.

It's fallacious reasoning, because by that standard, NOTHING produced by the current society is zero carbon. Nuclear itself is zero carbon, just like wind or solar. But all three require material that could conceivably be produced in a zero carbon / 100% offset regimen. So the correct approach is to push for zero carbon transport, zero carbon cement etc. Or just tax the carbon to get it to a planetary safe level and let the market allocate.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by greedo on Thursday June 07, 2018 @05:05PM (#17260264)
Natural gas needs to be phased out due to CO2.
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by grizzles on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:25AM (#17262810)
There are several ways now to burn natural gas without releasing even a single ounce of CO2 into the atmosphere. For example, one way cracks natural gas into hydrogen and into solid black carbon which is a fine powder, and easy to store away.

Natural gas will be an integral of the energy mix for the next 50 years at least.

Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by greglindahl on Thursday June 07, 2018 @07:16PM (#17261224)
Eventually, yes. One nice thing about the US natural gas boom is that power plants for natural gas have much lower capital costs than coal plants, so there will be less screaming when they are eventually shut down.
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by st26 on Thursday June 07, 2018 @07:08PM (#17261175)
Eventually, but for now it's a 50% reduction over coal.
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by pjc50 on Thursday June 07, 2018 @05:08PM (#17260286)
Nuclear power is now arguably too late. We've got enough renewables manufacturing capabity to add a lot every year, while nuclear power plant starting now (e.g. Hinkley Point C, which has been in planning since 2008) won't be ready for at least 5 years.
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by spoiledtechie on Thursday June 07, 2018 @05:44PM (#17260571)
Why does it always need to be one or the other? You are allowed to have a variety of different powering tech. Just like programming languages, one language does not have to be the only one. Stop thinking singular. Choice are the most successful here.
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by Kalium on Thursday June 07, 2018 @07:52PM (#17261398)
As a political matter, energy policy tends to make either/or choices. As you say, this is definitely not ideal.
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by bingobob on Thursday June 07, 2018 @05:55PM (#17260631)
I found this video pretty good asking the question about baseload https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-5VkFo-fsg
Re:A Costly, Deadly Obsession with Coal by gameswithgo on Thursday June 07, 2018 @04:31PM (#17259968)
or large scale energy storage. is that hard to do? yes, it is also hard to do nuclear power safely, and also hard to build huge offshore oil rigs, but we can do all of these things.