For the record, our ability to link individual weather events to climate change is not zero. In the last 3 years or so we have become pretty good at it.

https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852/attribution-of-extreme-wea...

> Warmer water is absolutely not related to climate change Warmer water is not absolutely related to climate change

I think you got your "not" in the wrong place. No, climate change isn't the only thing, however it can be, along with human caused acidification / pollution.

The fact is this systems are so complex and so integrated that we do not know "absolutely", but we have a good idea.

But hey, if it isn't absolute, lets carry on destroying our planet, we have a backup plan after all... oh wait

The problem with that argument is that articles are written about individual events, and aren’t trying to be comprehensive evaluations of global warming.

It’s neither informative nor helpful to dismiss such individual articles as being non-indicators of global warming because they don’t cover all the other evidence at the same time.

I think of it like rolling dice. Say you've got a pair of 6-sided game die. Rolling a 12 represents a massive weather event (eg so-called "century storms"), and gobal warming replaced some of each cube's faces (say, changing the 4's or 5's to a 6) then for a given roll, you can't say for sure whether global warming's to blame -- but when 12's start showing up more than 1/12th of the time, you also can't say "that's absolutely not related".

“Exceptional circumstances happen all the time”. Yeah it’s called an oxymoron.

If one billion events happen in a day, then some one-in-a-billion event is likely to happen every day.

Some of them, like a coin landing perfectly sideways will just go on Youtube. Some of them will end up in the news.