Of course Japan's Nikkei index is still well below its peak in 1989. It isn't smart to assume that 7% will continue forever, particularly since developed economies' growth rates have all slowed, and without massive immigration slowed demographic growth makes it unlikely the rates will increase again.

In any case, if you believe your charitable donations are better off invested in the stock market than being put to charitable work today, then why bother donating? That means you don't believe in the charity. It would be better to find a more effective charity!

Japan now appears to be a special case (also what about dividends reinvested?)... But by all means, diversify. I admit to not having a crystal ball.

As to putting money to charity today I agree that might be a better idea.

[EDIT: Even with dividends this particular time period in Japan yielded terrible returns. Investing in the stock market for long periods doesn't guarantee returns, nothing does, but it's a pretty good probability.]

> Not an every year guarantee but over 20-50 years you'll be fine

only in the aggregate. You might hit a particularly bad spell , or some black swan event happens just as you need to liquidate the holdings.

Stock needs management of some kind (even if it's index, you'd still need to decide when to liquidate, and seize the earnings while high rather than keep betting until you require the funds).

The whole idea of passive investment is no management and no timing. That's proven to outperform most active management. Yes, you could get unlucky, the world can collapse into chaos, humanity could get destroyed, or various other risks. Definitely owning the US stock market over the last 70 years would have had a pretty good return.

So we just need another world war with the associated period of rebuilding and massive economic growth due to the development of integrated circuits and women joining the workforce.

You don't think the developing world continuing to develop will have a version of that effect?

Maybe. Maybe climate change wrecks the economy. Who knows? Past performance is not a great indicator of future performance.