> I concede to your clear and inarguable expertise and proof on the matter; best of luck with your demonstration!

There's a reason why this technology ultimately 'comes out of nowhere'. It is not that it will come out of nowhere... It will be that those having the capability of developing it who have detailed it to a degree which should yield interesting/questions were largely ignored for the many years of development leading up until it is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. I relied not on luck but diligence and persistence to seek the answer necessary no matter where they resided. In many people's minds, only millions of dollars of funding, prominent names, and companies can produce the technology. Such people ignore the history of technology that proofs the contrary.

I rely not on name but on sound commentary. AGI could exist and could be functional at this very moment. It could be very safely secured. There's nothing to suggest otherwise beyond the limits of one's own understanding. All of the hand waving, safety propaganda, and doomsday FUD disappears in such a scenario as blink were all still here.

> AGI could exist and could be functional at this very moment. It could be very safely secured. There's nothing to suggest otherwise beyond the limits of one's own understanding.

Wait, is this your argument?

  - AGI could be safely secured given current industry standards
  - Creators would likely not publish their success
  - Therefore AGI currently exists

My framing is that it could exist and the broad majority would be none the wiser. My framing also is that a number of groups/individuals have likely exposed enough to cause people to question as to what stage they are in their development but instead receive the common : yeah sure buddy, let me know when you have a demo. So, ultimately it will indeed 'come out of nowhere' because society and many individuals aren't conditions to or even have their 'hearing' tuned to be aware of its coming. The safety discussion is a mute topic of discussion in this context as its baked into development and intelligence. There's discussion boards all over the internet, TED talks, economic forums, AI panes, etc.. It's all the same song and dance save for the many groups that are of no mention. Even as the same voices and idols of note continue to center on the same fundamental approaches that don't seem to be going anywhere fast, no one listens to groups/individuals thinking different or trying a fundamentally new approach. Hinton and other prominent figures even come to state that the real amazing development will come from someone who scraps everything, starts from scratch and reproaches things in a fundamentally new approach. No media outlets. No funding groups (even though they say they're looking for something amazing/new). No commentators. No lay person looks to see if there are any such people.

In such an environment, AGI could very well already be established and the reason being is that no on by and large is looking for its establishment. The focus instead is on a handful of prominent names that are well capitalized. So, the majority and anyone of such thinking indeed (misses) the event.