I suppose it hinges on how we define vaporware, but it’s consistently been the case that the lower priced options arrive later.

Source: sub-$70k model S buyer who had to wait longer than preferred for that to be available.

I guess the way to resolve this is by asking, when does the $35k Model 3 become available?

Once the answer is known it's not vaporware, but until then Model 3 isn't quite finished, as that's the one that many folk will be waiting for.

The answer, for your queue position, is:

https://3.tesla.com/model3/delivery-estimate

Early reservation holders will see "Late 2018".

> it’s consistently been the case that the lower priced options arrive later.

No it hasn't. I would like to see where, in the first year of accepting Model 3 deposits, Tesla or Musk stated this.

Costlier versions of the Roadster, Model S, and Model X were available before the base versions were. If Tesla had done the opposite with the Model 3, that would have been the exception.

The difference is the deposits Tesla accepted for the Model 3. Likely many deposits were placed based on the frequently-cited $35k price.

I do not think deposits were taken for the models you mentioned.

You're wrong about all of these: Tesla was clear that the more expensive Model 3's would ship first, and S and X both shipped the most expensive ones first.

Could you cite a source on that, please? The only articles I can find talking about it start in Summer 2017.

Model X deposits ranged from $5k for the base model to $40k for the Signature model. Those deposits sat for up to 3 years for early reservations.

The upcoming Roadster requires $50k and $250k deposits.

The upcoming Semi requires a $20k deposit.

The original Roadster also required a deposit.

I'm unsure of the original Model S.

Tesla's current estimate for base Model 3's is "late 2018" for early reservation holders. Take that with a grain of salt given how reliably they announce unreliable release dates.

Yes, and the queue tool has given you a time estimate for 2 other options the entire time you've been in the queue.

For me, it currently reads:

First Production: available now (for me)

Standard Battery: Early 2019

Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive: Late 2018

This is incorrect. As soon as you place your deposit, you're in the queue. The queue tool didn't exist until roughly Summer 2017, but deposits started March 2016. There was a period of more than a year where everything was opaque.

I recall it being clear that, just like the S and X launch, the most expensive 3's would ship first.

On another thread I asked if you have a source for this - I'll ask again, because I can't find one. I didn't follow the Model S/X stuff too closely leading up to the Model 3 (I don't spend that much money on a depreciating asset). I did put my Model 3 deposit down the first day possible, and I do not remember any such "clarity" you describe around timing and expectations.

Then again, originally my standard range Model 3 was estimated "Feb-Apr 2018" or something like that. It now just says "Late 2018" and I have no faith that will be met, either.