There's also the "photoshop effect", where piracy helps ensure that the application remains the de-facto standard. Admittedly this is less applicable for games but it might help with 3rd party controller support, modding community etc...

I also believe that in the age of Steam specials, refunds, etc, people who pirate your game are not "lost sales". They are usually doing it because their appetite for games outstrips their budget, and they were highly unlikely to pay for it in the first place. But there is a significant chance may convert to a paying customer, or at least market the game by word of mouth.

I also regularly NOT buy games (but nowadays also don’t pirate them, in the past I might have) if they hnave intrusive DRM

If we've already start speculating, such part might be offset by people like me, who tend to buy games only they like. I often pirated new game just to see if it's worth buying. And I've recently bought most of games on GOG I had played as pirate versions when I was a poor teenager, even though I barely play computer games anymore.

Consider that for lack of a demo, or other scenario, people who pirate the game but end up purchasing it later. Sure, not all pirates would buy the game they've pirated, but at least some people would (it probably is a small percentage, but it is not zero).

>One can imagine that the effect of those few is amplified for titles with high costs per unit.

I would argue mainstream titles would make up that difference through volume of pirated copies though.

Piracy isn't a non-issue, but it's just not a dire threat either. Decades of video game piracy has demonstrated that.

Averages don't mean that the small development house with the high cost per unit product doesn't go out of business when a small percentage of those who would have bought their product pirate it instead.

I didn’t read it, but apparently that EU funded study found that piracy doesn’t harm sales. At least, that’s what the news reporting said about it.