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Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by alex_young on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @09:37AM (#16324632)
Maybe asteroid mining is the real economic objective for the Falcon Heavy?
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by hprotagonist on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:03AM (#16324810)
How else are we going to get that chunk of iron bolted onto Izzy before the moon detonates? ;-)

Then we can make Jeff Bezos go get us a comet...

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by bhhaskin on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:28AM (#16325531)
That didn't end well for pretty much everyone involved.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by hprotagonist on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:44AM (#16325739)
It took me until the end of part II to understand the book title. Then i think i actually cursed out loud.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by jf on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @12:40PM (#16326338)
(In case anybody is wondering, these comments are referring to the excellent book "Seveneves" by Neil Stephenson)
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by carapace on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @04:36PM (#16328240)
(Oh man, I think it was a stinker. I'm a big Stephenson fan and I was really disappointed. Just one point: It was so freighted with exposition and so thin on dialog and character development, "show, don't tell" was out the window.)
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by hprotagonist on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @05:29PM (#16328588)
i liked the first 2/3 in an analytical hard sci-fi kind of way. The last third had some interesting world-building, but was less my speed.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by HorizonXP on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @09:51AM (#16324723)
Maybe. Asteroid mining would be tremendously profitable, but not without a huge initial capital investment, the likes of which humanity has likely never seen (not hyperbole).

But like the age old adage, you get rich by selling the pick axes, not by mining for gold. Elon probably figures that launches are where the money is, not the actual mining itself.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:21AM (#16324961)
There is no profit to be had right now in mining stuff in space and sending it down to Earth.

There is however plenty of profits to be made in space, when we'll have a full space economy. Asteroid mining is an important part of both the future economy and of the current process of bootstrapping that economy.

The idea is to use material mined in space, combined with manufacturing and processing in space, to create products and resources to be used in space, for space operations. Ultimately some of that may return to Earth, but the main goal is to avoid spending money on lifting things from Earth.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by pythonaut_16 on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:30AM (#16325027)
Low gravity (e.g. the moon) and zero gravity environments could have manufacturing advantages that are used to create projects that are shipped to earth.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:36AM (#16325072)
In the longer term, yes; right now, nothing game-changing on the horizon.

The best example would be the work of Made In Space[0]. They've started manufacturing optical fiber on the ISS, where they can reach much greater medium purity than what one can do on Earth. It can, in principle, make fiber optics installations cheaper (less need for repeaters along the way), but the savings are entirely eaten by launch costs (and lack of economies of scale).

The primary output of asteroid mining and space manufacturing will naturally be utilized in space, because we need to bootstrap a pretty large and self-sustaining economy to be able to profitably ship useful quantities of useful stuff downwell.

--

[0] - http://madeinspace.us/mis-fiber/

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by le-mark on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:08AM (#16325362)
Low or zero gravity can also be a hindrance; how do you mine an asteroid if every wack of the pickaxe also propels you away from said asteroid? Clearly asteroids won't be mined with pickaxes, this is an illustration that gravity is in fact critical for all known terrestrial manufacturing processes!

When considered in this light, shallow gravity wells like the moon or mars, which are cheaper to access from a delta-v perspective are actually super important.

Also, O'neil type cylinder habitats (which I think Bezos favors) are a suitable alternative.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:16AM (#16325433)
Yup. Zero-g introduces absurd amounts of challenges, only showing just how much everything we've learned over past couple thousand years is dependent on living at the bottom of a gravity well.

For those curious about asteroid mining per se, there are plenty of ideas being prototyped right now - including the more obvious ones like two-part drills spinning in opposite direction, and the less obvious ones like using concentrated sunlight to heat up the asteroid and collecting the matter that outgasses from the hot spot.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by le-mark on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @12:33PM (#16326260)
My pet theory: Giant kevlar bag, surround asteroid, embed explosives, pulverize, cinch bag tight: bag-o-gravel :D
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @12:45PM (#16326382)
Change "embedded explosives" to the concentrated solar light I mentioned, and you've essentially described a mission proposal that I've seen in a NASA report.

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/eso_fin...

Scroll to page 11 for a picture.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Robotbeat on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @02:39PM (#16327365)
I think both points are false.

Space mining companies currently have two or three possible products they usually talk about: platinum group metals, helium 3, and water.

Helium 3 would come from the lunar soil. The problem is that it is EXTREMELY rare in the lunar soil, so you'd have to process ridiculous amounts of it. It is ostensibly used as a fusion fuel, but it's actually a tougher fuel to use than deuterium/tritium, and no one has even made D/T fusion breakeven, yet. The only real advantage is that helium 3 produces fewer neutrons than D/T does. But Protium-Boron11 produces even less. And you can make Helium 3 by just making Tritium and letting it decay. So Helium 3 isn't a real market.

Platinum group metals are supposed to be this huge market. But the total value of the platinum market (and the vast majority of the PGM market is platinum by value) is just $5 billion per year. The global commercial space telecom market is already on the order of $100 billion per year. And even here, processing platinum in orbit is a HUGE technical challenge. It's in relatively small concentrations (though perhaps still better than Earth), it's not like there's a big chunk of platinum that you just need to grab.

And water. Water is supposed to be the huge, near-term space commodity. $10,000 per kilogram, "The oil of space." ...except the only current market for water is on ISS, where it is occasionally delivered by Dragon, Progress, and Cygnus. Water is not used for propulsion for any current satellites; instead, they use hydrazine, xenon, or a bipropellant hypergolic combination (usually including hydrazine).

The only other use is for upper stage propellant. But that'd require splitting the water, refrigerating the resultant gases, storing them in deeply cryogenic conditions, then delivering them to the upper stage. This is all possible, but that is only good for a small part of the trip to orbit, the part from LEO to GEO. But the starting assumption of water being super expensive is based on a faulty assumption that launch costs will remain really high, i.e. that reusable rockets won't work. If Falcon Heavy works, the cost to orbit is only like ~$1000/kg to LEO. And if BFR works (first orbital test as early as 2021/2022), costs could be as low as $10/kg. So you have to assume reusable rocketry isn't really viable. But to get water from, say, the Moon requires a reusable launch infrastructure of some kind, usually a reusable lunar lander/ascender. And usually, in order to be cost effective, it has to be totally autonomous. So you're assuming fully autonomous, refurbishment-free launch from the Moon is going to be cheap to develop but reusable rockets on Earth won't. And you're also necessarily assuming that space market growth won't be buoyed by much cheaper space launch, so you're looking at a small part (upper stage propellant) of a relatively small market (the current space launch market, which is a tiny fraction of the space telecom market). And you have to build a bunch of infrastructure on the Moon and in Earth orbit to make it work, it'll probably take over a decade to get working... Why not just invest in reusable rockets on the Earth first?

So I feel like the business case for water mining also doesn't make any sense, in spite of the difference in delta-v needed to reach orbit.

(The caveat to this is if you have a Moon base or something... in which case you already have a need for water on the Moon itself and much of the infrastructure already in place. That is reasonable, IMHO.)

If lifting things from the Earth becomes super cheap (and it most certainly can), then the vast majority of the business case for space mining goes away, and you're left mostly with mining platinum group metals for Earth use (which isn't a very big market). The narrative needs to be rewritten to account for reusable space launch.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by legitster on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:02AM (#16324805)
Except it's hard to argue that Elon Musk does anything for profit. Both Tesla and SpaceX are examples of businesses set up to disrupt an industry and worry about money later.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by njarboe on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:57AM (#16325280)
I agree that he does not see the value of using money as a scoring system for his success, but making a profit, I am sure he is very interested in that. Profitable ventures are how he had the $100 million to create SpaceX. Profits of venture after venture until he acquired enough capital to actually start and fund a new aerospace company and be the largest investor in Tesla.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:01AM (#16324795)
Where do you see the profit?

I would think precious metals get a lot less precious if they start falling out of the sky and I am pretty skeptical about other Earthside uses being profitable at all.

People that go try to live in space are going to have a hard time of it so I wouldn't expect profit from supplying space industry either (the longer missions cosmonauts and astronauts have completed have had grave physical consequences, we aren't adapted to low g environments).

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by yaniqt on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:08AM (#16324847)
The value of the resources is not in having them on Earth. It is in not having to get them into space from Earth at ~$10,000 / lb.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:10AM (#16324860)
Yeah, I expressed a couple of thoughts about that. There's not billions of dollars of demand for bulk materials in space.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by JoeAltmaier on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:28AM (#16325016)
That's entirely because of the cost of lifting to orbit. If resources were available at reasonable cost, demand would soar. It would be the largest expansion of commerce since the discovery of the new world. It cannot be underestimated the impact this would have on human development.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:40AM (#16325121)
What's the end market driving all this commerce?

Current space industry is dominated by intensively manufactured goods (satellites) that provide enormous value to ground based users. Having literal tons of steel available isn't going to help with the intensively manufactured part.

I can see space hotels or whatever, but that is not a huge market, even with Musky launch prices.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:51AM (#16325233)
The market is not there yet. But it will be, and asteroid mining is an important part of bootstrapping it.

The other day I found an interesting analysis on that, which should answer all your questions: https://medium.com/@centrena/the-cislunar-economy-series-fed....

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:05AM (#16325338)
I skimmed https://medium.com/function-core/cislunar-economy-101-part-7...

It enthuses that colonization should be the end goal because it will drive funding. I remain unconvinced that there are actually enough incredibly wealthy people that want to go die in space to drive a vast economy.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:11AM (#16325391)
Skim the first 6 parts too; they deal more with what is now than what might be in the far future.

There's enough interest, demand and money in current space activities to justify a small cislunar economy; after that happens, well, hard to predict, but I think you're underestimating the amount of people with ideas about what to do in the Solar System.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by JoeAltmaier on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:07AM (#16325355)
The cost of colonies becomes small(er) with the incredible resources available in space. It wasn't the incredibly wealthy that colonized the New World.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by posterboy on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @05:30PM (#16328603)
I'm pretty sure some crowns with a lot of jewels were deeply invested in the process.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by JoeAltmaier on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:06AM (#16325346)
It could be colonies on the Moon or whatever. But I'm thinking a space-based industry to produce more space-based industry. If it could be self-sufficient, the question of "what does this do for Earth?" becomes moot. Like the Americas are not here to serve the old world.

Getting started, it could be a scheme of space development futures. Bet on the value of things in space, which puts money into the development of more things in space.

By 'in space' of course we mean everywhere in the Universe except tiny 'ol Earth.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by yaniqt on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:14AM (#16324887)
Perhaps because there is currently no supply.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:23AM (#16324979)
Exactly. This is a chicken-and-egg problem, and to break out of it, you need to address supply and demand simultaneously.

Asteroid mining isn't happening in a vacuum (well, it is in a physical one, but not metaphorical). Fortunately, there are people working on using the mined material to manufacture things in space too; missions plans are being sketched around those capabilities.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Symmetry on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:30AM (#16325028)
Tethers Unlimited is working on ways to build antennas larger than could be flow up on a rocket in GEO, I'm sure they're pay for refined metal once that gets going. Any location with humans in space would probably like to buy some loose gravel just for greater radiation/impact shielding, especially for anything outside the Van Allen belt. Space is currently a $300 billion industry and I wouldn't be surprised if you could sell $1 billion worth of raw materials. It's getting an asteroid to Earth for that cheap that's the really hard part.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by encrystation on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:03AM (#16324809)
There's probably lots of neat uses for gold at the moment that aren't financially viable due to the cost of the raw material.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by PeterisP on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @02:56PM (#16327487)
Why would the cost decrease?

It'd still be more cost-efficient to e.g. mine for gold under the ocean or in the Antarctic rather than send gear up to space to do that.

If we had a huge solid gold asteroid (how would that occur?) floating in a very close, very convenient orbit then maybe it would be cost-effective to send a ship to connect, re-orbit and land it without vaporizing; but anything realistic simply wouldn't be worth the launch effort&cost.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by mmjaa on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:08AM (#16324848)
Not to mention that the idea of things just falling out of the sky when we need them sounds great to me.

Seriously, not kidding. Lets push 3D printing so hard all we need to do is send a few drones worth "up there", and oila .. free everything for everyone, forever.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:24AM (#16324986)
It's less fun when you realize that being able to drop any meaningful amount of material from space is equivalent to having a weapon of mass destruction.

(This is actually a constant thing in spaceflight, that comes up because of the scales involved. Similarly to that, any engine able to cut down interplanetary travel to reasonable lengths (days, weeks) will have energy output of a WMD, and could be used as such.)

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Neutrion on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:56AM (#16325272)
Also the disruption brought by let huge objects falling through the sky will be devastating to atomsphere.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by mmjaa on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @12:46PM (#16326392)
Clearly we'll work out how to deliver through the atmosphere.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:11AM (#16324871)
Right, but if you make the price of gold fall by 5 or 10 times you are, uh, undermining your own profitability.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by sitkack on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:39AM (#16325105)
Money is a proxy. When one has a star trek replicator, money doesn't matter anymore.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Retric on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @09:57AM (#16324760)
Earth does not really have a shortage of most things, so I don't think there is much use for Asteroid mining in the next 10,000 years unless people are also moving into space.

EX: Just the worlds oceans has 5 lb of gold per person on the planet. It's far more abundant on land, but we really don't have a lot of need for gold.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by rtkwe on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:09AM (#16324854)
I'd rather gather them from the asteroid belt if possible so we could stop/limit the terrible effects of mining on the environment on earth. Also if we can setup manufacturing and fuel creation in space it would let us build larger and go farther because we wouldn't have to lift the pieces up out of our gravity well and atmosphere. At the very least we could build the bodies of spacecraft and fuel them in space and just lift harder to build stuff like electronics from Earth.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Retric on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:15AM (#16325414)
As long as we are just sending satellites up into LEO that takes far less energy than you might think. Flying around the world or getting to space are not that far apart. SpaceX for example is only worth ~20 billion because there is simply less demand for rockets and they cost less than many assume.

Now, if we want to colonize outer space then asteroid mining becomes necessary. But, with current tech there is little personal benefit to being in space vs staying home.

PS: I am not going to try and predict what happens 1,000 years from now, but space is unlikely to be a nice place to live any time soon.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by rtkwe on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @12:36PM (#16326288)
Even short of full colonization sourcing materials from space will allow much larger structures and shapes that would be difficult. Ultimately right now we're severely limited by the fairings, inflatables like Bigelow Aerospace solves some of that but ultimately there still limits to the volumes.

I agree we're pretty far out from being able to live comfortably in space but I think to get there we kind of inevitably have to mine resources from space.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Retric on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @01:51PM (#16326973)
But what's the point of having large structures in space without people?

We can already get big stuff into space aka building sized, so you're taking about mega structures which seem rather pointless right now.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by WD-42 on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:04AM (#16324825)
"just the world's oceans"? I think you understate just how vast the oceans are. That's some seriously diluted gold.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by pwinnski on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:35AM (#16325069)
I suspect the comparison was against asteroid mining. The oceans are vast and difficult, but less vast and less difficult than space.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Retric on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @01:55PM (#16327006)
My point is the earth is huge.

260 billion cubic miles worth of asteroids without going into space. Sure we are currently limited to a tiny fraction of that but start processing magma directly is an option.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by jws on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:14AM (#16324884)
Each person’s 5kg of gold also comes with a bonus of about 1/6 of a cubic kilometer of seawater. Hopefully yours is near a beach so you don’t have to haul it too far.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by pavel_lishin on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:06AM (#16324837)
But we do have a need for rare earth metals. Not as much as we thought we did in 2011, but it would still be a fantastic boon to manufacturing.

It wouldn't just be profitable in the sense that you can sell 1000 kilos of dysprosium to manufacturers; it would be profitable in the sense that those manufacturers could make more products, employ more people, build more electric cars or LED bulbs, etc.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by alex_young on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:10AM (#16324858)
Say you also own an electric car company...
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Retric on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:52AM (#16325244)
rare earth metals are not nearly as rare as you might think.

The problem is they don't concentrate that much in any one area not that they can't be extracted for most places. So, we could extract them at 100x the current rate for the next 1,000 years and recycle them forever.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by jdavis703 on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:22AM (#16324973)
If everyone consumed like an American we’d need something like 4x Earths. There are not enough resources on this planet unless westerners start scaling back their consumption and members of developing societies scale their ambitions down to match the new, lower consumption models of the West.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Asdfbla on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:43AM (#16325150)
Then making that consumption sustainable and reducing waste would be a far better investment than pipe dreams of asteroid mining.

Keep in mind scarcity of resources is not the only issue. If everyone on Earth really ever started consuming as much as Americans then it doesn't matter if there's enough surplus material in space, the ecosystem on Earth would be dead anyway and we'd have much bigger issues.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by jotm on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:37AM (#16325088)
There's enough resources (especially since they don't just disappear and can be recovered by recycling), afaik, except for food - that's what we're consuming too fast to replenish.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:15AM (#16324903)
If you mean the Belt, then not really. The current iterator of asteroid mining will focus on near-Earth asteroids primarily, as they're close - exactly what you need for testing and for building a cislunar economy.