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Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:01AM (#16324795)
Where do you see the profit?

I would think precious metals get a lot less precious if they start falling out of the sky and I am pretty skeptical about other Earthside uses being profitable at all.

People that go try to live in space are going to have a hard time of it so I wouldn't expect profit from supplying space industry either (the longer missions cosmonauts and astronauts have completed have had grave physical consequences, we aren't adapted to low g environments).

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by yaniqt on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:08AM (#16324847)
The value of the resources is not in having them on Earth. It is in not having to get them into space from Earth at ~$10,000 / lb.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:10AM (#16324860)
Yeah, I expressed a couple of thoughts about that. There's not billions of dollars of demand for bulk materials in space.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by JoeAltmaier on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:28AM (#16325016)
That's entirely because of the cost of lifting to orbit. If resources were available at reasonable cost, demand would soar. It would be the largest expansion of commerce since the discovery of the new world. It cannot be underestimated the impact this would have on human development.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:40AM (#16325121)
What's the end market driving all this commerce?

Current space industry is dominated by intensively manufactured goods (satellites) that provide enormous value to ground based users. Having literal tons of steel available isn't going to help with the intensively manufactured part.

I can see space hotels or whatever, but that is not a huge market, even with Musky launch prices.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:51AM (#16325233)
The market is not there yet. But it will be, and asteroid mining is an important part of bootstrapping it.

The other day I found an interesting analysis on that, which should answer all your questions: https://medium.com/@centrena/the-cislunar-economy-series-fed....

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:05AM (#16325338)
I skimmed https://medium.com/function-core/cislunar-economy-101-part-7...

It enthuses that colonization should be the end goal because it will drive funding. I remain unconvinced that there are actually enough incredibly wealthy people that want to go die in space to drive a vast economy.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:11AM (#16325391)
Skim the first 6 parts too; they deal more with what is now than what might be in the far future.

There's enough interest, demand and money in current space activities to justify a small cislunar economy; after that happens, well, hard to predict, but I think you're underestimating the amount of people with ideas about what to do in the Solar System.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by JoeAltmaier on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:07AM (#16325355)
The cost of colonies becomes small(er) with the incredible resources available in space. It wasn't the incredibly wealthy that colonized the New World.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by posterboy on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @05:30PM (#16328603)
I'm pretty sure some crowns with a lot of jewels were deeply invested in the process.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by JoeAltmaier on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @11:06AM (#16325346)
It could be colonies on the Moon or whatever. But I'm thinking a space-based industry to produce more space-based industry. If it could be self-sufficient, the question of "what does this do for Earth?" becomes moot. Like the Americas are not here to serve the old world.

Getting started, it could be a scheme of space development futures. Bet on the value of things in space, which puts money into the development of more things in space.

By 'in space' of course we mean everywhere in the Universe except tiny 'ol Earth.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by yaniqt on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:14AM (#16324887)
Perhaps because there is currently no supply.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:23AM (#16324979)
Exactly. This is a chicken-and-egg problem, and to break out of it, you need to address supply and demand simultaneously.

Asteroid mining isn't happening in a vacuum (well, it is in a physical one, but not metaphorical). Fortunately, there are people working on using the mined material to manufacture things in space too; missions plans are being sketched around those capabilities.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Symmetry on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:30AM (#16325028)
Tethers Unlimited is working on ways to build antennas larger than could be flow up on a rocket in GEO, I'm sure they're pay for refined metal once that gets going. Any location with humans in space would probably like to buy some loose gravel just for greater radiation/impact shielding, especially for anything outside the Van Allen belt. Space is currently a $300 billion industry and I wouldn't be surprised if you could sell $1 billion worth of raw materials. It's getting an asteroid to Earth for that cheap that's the really hard part.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by encrystation on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:03AM (#16324809)
There's probably lots of neat uses for gold at the moment that aren't financially viable due to the cost of the raw material.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by PeterisP on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @02:56PM (#16327487)
Why would the cost decrease?

It'd still be more cost-efficient to e.g. mine for gold under the ocean or in the Antarctic rather than send gear up to space to do that.

If we had a huge solid gold asteroid (how would that occur?) floating in a very close, very convenient orbit then maybe it would be cost-effective to send a ship to connect, re-orbit and land it without vaporizing; but anything realistic simply wouldn't be worth the launch effort&cost.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by mmjaa on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:08AM (#16324848)
Not to mention that the idea of things just falling out of the sky when we need them sounds great to me.

Seriously, not kidding. Lets push 3D printing so hard all we need to do is send a few drones worth "up there", and oila .. free everything for everyone, forever.

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by TeMPOraL on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:24AM (#16324986)
It's less fun when you realize that being able to drop any meaningful amount of material from space is equivalent to having a weapon of mass destruction.

(This is actually a constant thing in spaceflight, that comes up because of the scales involved. Similarly to that, any engine able to cut down interplanetary travel to reasonable lengths (days, weeks) will have energy output of a WMD, and could be used as such.)

Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by Neutrion on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:56AM (#16325272)
Also the disruption brought by let huge objects falling through the sky will be devastating to atomsphere.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by mmjaa on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @12:46PM (#16326392)
Clearly we'll work out how to deliver through the atmosphere.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by maxerickson on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:11AM (#16324871)
Right, but if you make the price of gold fall by 5 or 10 times you are, uh, undermining your own profitability.
Re:SpaceX craft overshot Mars’ orbit and is headed to astero... by sitkack on Wednesday February 07, 2018 @10:39AM (#16325105)
Money is a proxy. When one has a star trek replicator, money doesn't matter anymore.