Scenario 1a, two Swedish women get a bunch of cash in return for filing a bogus charge of rape (edit: which is just as hard to prove as it is to disprove, causing a lot of smoke absent any fire at a time when wikileaks needs to be seen as 'clean' and on the moral high ground).

It's not as if governments haven't been doing shit like this for ages.

Indeed, the simplest explanation is the most likely.

Until this hit the wires I figured Assange is just a bit too paranoid, this charge is so over the top that I'm no longer convinced he's paranoid but that he was right all along.

After all, not one but two rape cases out of the blue reported by two women that know each other just when wikileaks is about to release a bunch of incriminating material after refusing to budge under pressure?

It's technically possible, but that's the only thing this charge has going for it at this point in time, evidence is what it is all about.