Not much deniability for orbiting objects. Everything bigger than a golfball, and the launches to park them there, can be easily observed and cataloged by state actors. They might not know what every chunk of junk is for, but everyone knows who put it there. Even amateurs with small telescopes can play along for the larger chunks.

Eg: http://www.heavens-above.com/Satellites.aspx

Fake a failure and use stealth coatings. It has been tried with at least some success, and we wouldn't hear about the really successful ones... http://www.nbcnews.com/id/3077830/ns/technology_and_science-...

Sure you can do the chaff thing, but the backyard telescope guys--and any big guys with radar--will still see a new object and log it. A little math will pair its orbit with the launch.

I'm not talking about chaff, I'm talking about low reflectivity paint (to reduce spotting via visual observation) and stealth to prevent radar detection (ala F-117 or B2). Maybe you even mosey on up to a known piece of debris and attach to it.

Chaff's handy for making it look like the launcher had an issue, but you need something else for ongoing evasion.

Ah, good point. Given that's 80s tech they're probably way ahead of this even. You're right, the oops-we-lost-it gambit is more relevant than ever.

I'm curious how far it'd go with something as serious as a nuke, though. I don't want to imagine how high tensions would be after such an attack, if there isn't enough evidence to pin the blame on someone.