Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising [pdf]

Re:Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising [pdf] by gr3yh47 on Thursday December 14, 2017 @11:20AM (#15923451)

i disagree with the author's logic here - yes any individual result is disconnected, yes the gambler's fallacy is wrong, but if we simply expand it to say, a 100 sided die landing on 1, 92 times in a row, then we can see the flaw here.

or to put it another way - expand his argument to 1 million coin flips, and all of them heads.

at some point probabilities should be evinced in results. it is surprising when they are not.

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Re:Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising [pdf] by pcmonk on Thursday December 14, 2017 @11:22AM (#15923478)

He addresses this in the article if you read a little further down. Briefly, any sequence of 1 million coin flips is equally unlikely, so why are most of them not surprising?

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Re:Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising [pdf] by ythn on Thursday December 14, 2017 @11:24AM (#15923504)

He addresses this in the article if you read a little further down. Briefly, any sequence of 1 million coin flips is equally unlikely, but because most fall within our expectations, they are not surprising. 1 million heads in a row does not fall within our expectations and is unlikely, and hence is surprising.

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