News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by down on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:07AM (#15844333)
I had trouble understanding bitcoin myself, and therefore stayed away from it, but what made me understand it, if shinny metals and compressed carbons pieces have huge markets, eg. gold has a cap of 7 trillions and bitcoin is just 150 billions, and just work why bitcoin would not also work, even when you buy gold jewellery or diamonds, in the back of your mind is the resell value, (hedge against inflation), not that they look much better than a fake, or the coated version.

Maybe in US inflation isn't a problem but in my country until a few years 7% inflation was low, although maybe the official inflation is low, but as far as I know asset prices have gone up due to quantitative easing.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by mxwsn on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:18AM (#15844435)
The rub is in "gold just works". It doesn't just work, there are reasons it has retained value for so long and reasons it might not forever.

The intrinsic value of USD is it's the only currency you can use to pay taxes to the US government. The intrinsic value of gold is its industrial/commercial uses. The intrinsic value of bitcoin is a nearly incorruptable transaction ledger while also being trust less.

None of these things "just work", some or all will fail eventually.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by FLUX-YOU on Monday December 04, 2017 @12:53PM (#15845872)
>The intrinsic value of USD is it's the only currency you can use to pay taxes to the US government.

This isn't intrinsic value. The government can conceivably decide USD is worthless (it won't, probably ever, unless the US collapses). USD relies on the US government for value.

Being able to burn money to start a fire would be intrinsic value. Same for gold's conductivity and its other industrial uses. They are physical properties.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by DSingularity on Monday December 04, 2017 @01:43PM (#15846320)
I think its a stretch to say that the US gov will decide USD is worthless. So the expected intrinsic value is as he stated, the power of the US government to levy taxes. I would also include the domination of the USD in oil trade as another intrinsic value.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by paulgb on Monday December 04, 2017 @03:40PM (#15847275)
Intrinsic value is a term with specific meaning going back to the days of commodity money. I don't disagree with your point, but by definition the things you mention are not intrinsic value in the monetary theory sense.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by lallysingh on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:51AM (#15845273)
Not just taxes. The dollar says "This note is legal tender for all debts public and private." Useful to have when you're getting sued.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by Manglano on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:54AM (#15844772)
Gold in industrial applications will probably be used at atomic-scale in integrated manufacturing processes sometime within the next three years.

If you look at an ATX motherboard from 2009 with an Intel processor and a MacBook Pro mainboard from 2017, the amount of material consumption to create a similar product has fallen dramatically. You can actually see Moore's Law, it's kinda beautiful.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by Lordarminius on Sunday December 10, 2017 @02:14PM (#15892961)
>The intrinsic value of gold is it's industrial/commercial uses....

Excuse me ?

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by bicubic on Monday December 04, 2017 @12:00PM (#15845347)
> and reasons it might not forever

Is there historical precedent for something to be as widely accepted as gold, which isn't considered valuable today?

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by notdonspaulding on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:29PM (#15846677)
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by conanbatt on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:28AM (#15845054)
Again with the pay taxes thing. The duty to pay taxes cannot be the value of the usd. Lowering taxes would depreciate the coin!
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by Manglano on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:44AM (#15844683)
From an economic standpoint, Bitcoin is backed by generated electricity, computer hardware, and network trust. This is not dissimilar from the American Dollar, currently backed by the global energy economy and network trust. Here, the network is the US Treasury and the American public, depending on your analysis; Bitcoin's network is necessarily smaller but the opening of Futures trading suggests a vested interest in continued network growth by exchange operators. Consider the hedge on continued access to electricity and advanced technologies.

What this is worth to the consumer (is currency a product? opinions vary) will vary, but diamonds without industrial use were valued at billions of dollars only 150 years ago. Large diamonds still carry multimillion dollar values, despite that a 32-karat diamond can be grown from carbon ash in a small plasma cell for only hundreds of dollars. Maybe even less if the laboratory is powered with a renewable energy source.

The diamond was perhaps my favorite currency to study. It is an object historically backed partially by human fascination with light, partially by industrial demand, but the industrial demand was slowly diminished by the introduction of synthetic grit and stones. Despite the low cost of manufacturing a synthetic diamond for jewelry, they usually depreciate immediately--that may be a comment on the consumer's demand by those who practice valuation, or it may be that a "used" diamond is somehow worth less than a "newly discovered or grown" diamond. Impossible to say.

Good talking to you!

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by paulgb on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:38AM (#15845150)
> From an economic standpoint, Bitcoin is backed by generated electricity, computer hardware, and network trust.

Saying Bitcoin is "backed" by generated electricity and computer hardware is like saying paper money is "backed" by the printing presses and labor that made it. Economically this is nonsense.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by xorcist on Monday December 04, 2017 @06:02PM (#15848388)
Nonsense is perhaps a bit strong. What people mean when they say Bitcoin is "backed" by energy, is that there is a certain cost associated with producing one BTC. That cost is primary the electricity consumed and electricity has a spot price (barring distribution problems which might skew the price). Miners are not likely to sell under the price of production, at least for shorter time frames, which creates a supply elasticity.

It is not backed by energy in a literal sense of course, that would be obviously meaningless. But the price of energy, BTC and mining difficulty are connected. A change in one variable affects the others.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by vasilipupkin on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:55AM (#15845308)
yeah, that argument I never really got. It's like saying that a product is backed by the cost of that product. Doesn't make sense.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by notyourday on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:52AM (#15844755)
US dollar is backed by :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_t...

and other things like that. Which is why even drug dealers that are hunted by the US trust US dollar.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by Manglano on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:55AM (#15844783)
Yes, I know that. I lump the US military under "network trust."
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by tome on Monday December 04, 2017 @12:13PM (#15845464)
What does it mean for a currency to be backed by the military?
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by briankelly on Monday December 04, 2017 @01:03PM (#15845958)
Couldn't find a good source quickly, but it should be fairly evident that there is a pretty strong feedback loop between a nation's military and its economy, especially in the all of human history up to the colonial times at least. Maybe the link is more obfuscated today, but the US exerts a huge amount of political power (and therefore economic) with its massive military. And since military relies on the USD for funding, you could probably assume that the USD is going nowhere as long the US military is powerful (with some hand waving), which looks like a good bet.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by ksk on Monday December 04, 2017 @04:45PM (#15847832)
>And since military relies on the USD for funding, you could probably assume that the USD is going nowhere as long the US military is powerful (with some hand waving), which looks like a good bet.

But that is not income and would only put the US in debt, devaluing the USD.

I think the point he was alluding to is that countries hold a significant chunk of their foreign reserves in USD, which keeps demand for USD high. Other than the obvious trade aspect, one of the major reasons countries do so is because they purchase goods and services from the US military. (e.g. Japan, South Korea).

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by rhino369 on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:40AM (#15845169)
>From an economic standpoint, Bitcoin is backed by generated electricity, computer hardware, and network trust.

From an economic standpoint it isn't backed by anything. Bitcoin doesn't have a direct correspondence with any commodity. I can't turn in a bitcoin and get the electricity back.

It's back by nothing. Monopoly money. So is the USD dollar and all other fiat currency. Bitcoin is a fiat currency without the fiat.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by Manglano on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:01PM (#15846467)
Humbly I disagree!

The labor of manufacture is perhaps why the fiat currency has value. This argument heads toward philosophy, but without the minting process (and its technological backbone), to some degree the dollar would be valueless cotton.

In nations where the fiat currency is printed on polymer, I feel that their fiat currency states something like, "Not only do we stand as the people of this nation and its currency, but our belief is such that we have printed the currency with a specialized ink on an advanced polymer."

Before you consider military or government or the world outlook, a belief like that is not worth nothing. That note has indeed been backed by something, and no way is it Monopoly money!

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:13AM (#15844382)
An important difference: gold and diamonds have significant non-financial use. The majority of gold mined each year, for example, goes to jewelry and industrial use. And the track record for that demand runs back millennia.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by IkmoIkmo on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:41AM (#15844650)
You've got the causal relationship flipped. Gold isn't valuable because it's used in jewellery. It's used in jewellery because it's considered valuable.

There was a time when we hadn't the technology to produce aluminium in significant quantities like we do in today's factories, and it was more expensive than gold. And for that reason, it was used in jewellery, expensive cutlery and even the Washington monument.

Gold is mostly valuable for its scarcity and the way our culture has used scarce metals as a store of value, not because of its intrinsic value as a metal.

Today we can create artificial scarce tokens digitally, before using a centralised party to manage the ledger, today in a decentralised manner. Who knows whether gold's status will last, or in fact bitcoin's. Perhaps the noble notion of decentralisation won't be valued by markets in the end, perhaps there's no reason to respect one token's value for its scarcity when you can programmatically create a million clones on a single computer.

I've been a bitcoin enthusiast for half a decade, but the past few years I've seen a major decline in genuine interest in bitcoin other than as a get rich quick scheme. We used to have lots of cool and fun things going on, now it's bland and boring. People forget bitcoin's only value is its decentralised nature, yet the price increases don't reflect any significant growth in capturing the value of decentralisation, at all.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:52PM (#15846846)
I don't believe I have the relationship flipped.

There are many valuable things that are not made into jewelry. There are metals that are more valuable than gold, but they are not as commonly used in jewelry because they aren't as aesthetically appealing. Gold was used for making beautiful things in cultures that did not treat it as money. It became valued because it was uniquely workable, beautiful, and durable.

Part of gold's value is its rarity, certainly. But another part of it is utility. If investor demand for gold collapsed, it would still be valued.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by hackinthebochs on Monday December 04, 2017 @01:07PM (#15846002)
> People forget bitcoin's only value is its decentralised nature, yet the price increases don't reflect any significant growth

You seem to ignore the simple fact that as demand grows for a limited resource, the price grows. So even if the "value" of bitcoin viz a viz decentralization has remained constant, its market cap goes up because demand has exploded.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by vasilipupkin on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:44AM (#15845206)
gold is also used in jewelry because jewelry made out of gold looks good, right? it's not pure scarcity, certain physical properties of it make it attractive, correct?
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by joeschmoecad on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:56AM (#15845314)
You can make something that looks identical with cheaper alternatives or even synthetic materials. Same with diamonds (see cubic zirconia).

Thus, it is not the actual properties that make them desirable as jewelry. It is solely the fact that they are valuable that people want them for jewelry.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by vasilipupkin on Monday December 04, 2017 @12:01PM (#15845358)
hmm, perhaps, but historically you couldn't and so this combination of historical data, etc. as well as physical properties is what gives it value. But, yes, because of the issues you are talking about, going forward we should expect gold to be a bad investment, not a good investment.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by DoveBrown on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:59AM (#15845343)
I'm not sure you can say that gold is used in jewellery solely because it is valuable. Gold has physical properties being nonreactive and soft enough to be worked without large scale machinery that makes it a perfect material for making shiny jewellery out by a single skilled artisan. Add in an element of rarity/scarcity and it's pretty much a virtuous circle for why gold is used in jewellery.

If the price of gold was to collapse tomorrow, it's use in jewellery would continue without pause.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by IkmoIkmo on Monday December 04, 2017 @01:16PM (#15846080)
That may have been true a long time ago, but I highly doubt we'll be buying each other gold rings if they cost 50 cents in material like a plastic ring, or some shiny colored cheap metal ring, or any other easily malleable cheap and abundant material available today.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:54PM (#15846854)
Price is a balance between supply and demand. Gold's price is high because there is a lot of demand for use in jewelry and industry. Its monetary value isn't some intrinsic or historical fluke. The monetary value is underwritten by its utility.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by down on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:26AM (#15844502)
gold industrial use is like 10%, jewelry as just a fancier way to store gold, so 90% of gold is so valuable because is valuable, and for so many years, meaning something can be valuable without intrinsic value, aka bitcoin.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:58PM (#15846875)
Non-financial use is the majority of gold demand:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/299603/gold-demand-by-se...

Jewelry is definitely not just a fancier way to store gold. How many people do you know that sold their wedding rings when prices spiked?

I don't think intrinsic value is a meaningful term. Gold has been valued for millennia because it is very useful for making pretty things. And the price has been high for a long time because the supply of it is low.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by vasilipupkin on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:37AM (#15845138)
I disagree. Gold is valuable because physical commodities and physical things, like jewelry, etc. tend to track inflation over time. As an investment, gold is terrible. Just look at the chart of gold prices over a long period of time.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by hackinthebochs on Monday December 04, 2017 @01:11PM (#15846034)
>Gold is valuable because physical commodities and physical things, like jewelry, etc. tend to track inflation over time.

I don't know how to read this other than as stating the same thing with different words, i.e. "tracking inflation" is just another way of saying that its valuable.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by vasilipupkin on Monday December 04, 2017 @01:27PM (#15846190)
Well, what I mean is, physical things tend to track inflation. That doesn't make them great investments. I'm not sure it's fair to assume the same properties for bitcoin, but supposing bitcoin is like gold - gold is actually not a great investment.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by cloakandswagger on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:50AM (#15844736)
Gold isn't worth $1.2K per ounce because of its "non-financial use", and has been valued throughout human history for its scarcity. I'm fairly certain kings weren't making crowns from the stuff 500 years ago because of its conductive properties.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by lucozade on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:49AM (#15845257)
Mostly they were using gold because it doesn't readily tarnish and it's relatively easy to work.

Scarcity was necessary, for sure. But definitely not sufficient.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by kgwgk on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:58AM (#15845328)
But it was, in large part at least, because of its malleability. There were even scarcer materials that have never been used to make crowns.