What will be the catalyst? Just because we haven't had a recession in awhile is not enough. Corporate profits are up, consumer spending is up, and even though everyone on here thinks the numbers are lies, wages are starting to go up.
> My money is on late 2018 or early 2019.
So you have already either shorted the market or bought put options out in 2019?
I'm not a huge investor, but I am preparing by reducing the proportion of US stocks in my portfolio.
Have you really put your own money on that?
We're going to need solar and wind power in the future, and batteries. Lots of batteries.
Do you really think you have some big insight here that the rest of the investment community hasn't thought about?
It's unsustainable growth, and I'm afraid the crash is going to happen sooner rather than later.
Will it be as bad as in 2008? I don't know. But it's going to hurt (except if you're wealthy enough to invest heavily right after and ride the wave back up again).
QE was a reaction and counterpressure to low rates, not the cause.
Stuff we actually need like housing, healthcare (in the US), and education have been rising faster than 2%.
Assets too like stocks have risen much higher as well.
Isn't the problem in investing in that that there's really no way to know which particular business will come out on top here since there really isn't any large barriers of entry?
There's a lot of money in oil that will be captured by the 'free' energy of renewables. Renewables are just now becoming more cost effective than oil. Oil will be around for a long time but renewables are poised to overtake it in consumer and commercial energy. Might take a few decades but it's inevitable that a vastly more efficient energy source becomes the market leader.
Also, governments across the world are putting in place regulations to build and retrofit buildings to reduce emissions. That's not just energy, it's the actual building materials and techniques. That's a lot of government mandated money about to be put into green infrastructure. Again, this is over decades so the ramp time will seem slow to us humans but now is the time to get in IMO. However, I am an amateur investor and I've definitely been wrong before...
What to do before then? Don't have any money in US stocks. Diversify both geographically and sector-wise, cash out, be ready to invest when stocks crash through the floor, to ride the wave when they inevitably rise again. The real trick is spotting who's going to rise again and who's going to be left behind. Tech stocks are volatile by nature, invest in renewable energy and related sectors. We're going to need solar and wind power in the future, and batteries. Lots of batteries. Then, as we near battery saturation, there is going to be big money in recycling all those depleted batteries.