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Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @03:08PM (#15707293)
> Either politicians are stupid, or more likely, they know that "homeowner policy" like this can make them and their other rich buddies even richer.

It's not a malice vs idiocy situation, actually there is a third explaination : economy needs a growing money supply to work properly (and the money creation need to compensate the economic growth AND the reduction of money velocity[1]). But since the late seventies, money creation is only possible through the banking system via credit. That's why central banks reduces interest rates to stimulate economy, because you need to create money to enable economic growth. To get out of the rising housing prices trap, we need another money creation mechanism, but many people are affraid of the old ones (state-controlled monetary creation) and a lot of people (bankers, homeowners) have a lot to lose if we changed the system.

[1]: this is the failure of the monetarist view from the seventies, which predicted a constant money velocity, in fact we've had a declining one for the last four decades.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by opportune on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @04:48PM (#15708169)
Very good point. My pet theory is that the emphasis on asset-ownership as a means of retirement is what is decreasing the velocity of money. For example, let's say we had a system where instead of purchasing a home/stocks/bonds to save for retirement, you could instead pay the government $X which essentially goes toward an annuity with payout determined by the age at which you retire. The government could just immediately spend that money - perhaps on other retirements - and your actual annuity is just an accounting entry. So this is similar to social security, except you can pay more if you want to.

The emphasis on assets for retirement locks a lot of money up in an unproductive musical-chairs of asset transfership. For example let's say I have a pay-day and want to spend $100 on buying stock. When I buy that stock I'm purchasing it directly from someone else who now has $100 instead of the stock. They can spend that money on goods and services, but in my opinion there is a far greater chance that they will reinvest that money in some other asset. If the actual assets in the market don't change, I think you can say that my investment increased the total sum of costs of all assets. I'm not 100% sure this is solid logic but it's some rough reasoning.

The problem is that at any given time more people are buying new assets instead of selling them off. This is because you can make money on purchased assets through rentiership (dividends, renting, or collateral for a leveraged investment that pays dividends/can be rented), and also because people are cautious and save more than they need, since asset prices are unstable.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @05:42PM (#15708634)
That's an interesting point, and easily challenged since my country (France) is actually doing what you suggest. And as a matter of fact, retirement here is part of the social security system (La sécurité sociale). I'll check if we see the same kind of slowdown of money during the past decades here.

I have two personal pet theories (is that really a common idiom in english ? I like it !) on that topic.

1. since we now focus on low inflation, people have little incentive to spend/invest their money, they can just hoard cash for a long time with no risk of losing money.

2. The low imposition rate since Reagan accelerate the concentration of capital, and rich people buy assets with their money, not consuption goods.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by opportune on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @06:06PM (#15708875)
One thing I'd worry about is that this kind of pension may only work in a closed system. People not living in France may still purchase French assets for investment, just as they continue to purchase international assets for investment, which will still drive an increase in demand. That could incentivize French people to continue investment, in the absence of strict capital controls.

And yes, it is somewhat common! I think your second point is definitely part of the problem. As to your first, I think that looking at inflation in these terms requires looking at interest rates as well. When both inflation and interest rates are low, hoarding cash is highly incentivized. If inflation is low and interest is high, there is a large opportunity cost to holding cash rather than collecting interest via a mechanism directly tied to the cash (e.g. a bond). If both inflation and interest are high, it would probably be optimal to invest in assets that won't have their underlying value erode as they do with bonds.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by vasilipupkin on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @08:06PM (#15709497)
I'm sorry I think you are confused. When you buy stock, you are providing capital to the company issuing that stock. Yes, even in the secondary market, although indirectly. The company then invests that money productively and the economy grows.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by redtexture on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @08:44PM (#15709690)
Ah, no. The moment the company gets money, is when it sells the stock. After that, unless the company sells more stock, or buys and re-sells its stock, it receives zero more capital financing dollars, unless it undertakes other financing activity, such as the sale of bonds.

There is no indirect means to receive money, except for profit, and that it is not related to stock.

Profit is ultimately the primary means for company cash liquidity, held as retained earnings, after the company has survived its initial years of inception and growth.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by vasilipupkin on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @09:15PM (#15709814)
Sorry, you are missing the point. A liquid secondary market is what enables the company to go public in the first place. There would be no initial sale of stock without it at all. In addition, liquid secondary market enables the company to incentivize its employees and undertake other financing activities, as well as gives value to its remaining treasury stock.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Thursday November 16, 2017 @01:11AM (#15710570)
> A liquid secondary market is what enables the company to go public in the first place.

Dividends enable the company to go public. The secondary market makes the stock liquid, which is convenient but not mandatory.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by vasilipupkin on Thursday November 16, 2017 @07:04AM (#15712026)
No. Growth companies may not pay dividends for years and still go public. Dividends are paid by private companies too. The only reason to go public is the liquidity
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by geezerjay on Friday November 17, 2017 @02:16PM (#15725089)
That's not true. A company doesn't manage to sell its shares because of dividends. Dividends may be used to estimate value base on the expectation of returns, but if dividends were relevant or even dictated the share price then stocks of companies that posted negative results would be worth zero. Which they don't.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by geezerjay on Friday November 17, 2017 @02:05PM (#15724990)
> To get out of the rising housing prices trap, we need another money creation mechanism,

...or simply a way to deflate the housing market, such as public housing and urban renewal projects.

I don't understand why a small issue that's easily solved and a very basic strategy all over the world is somehow interpreted as a insurmountable problem that means the entire economical system is broken.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by alexasmyths on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @08:49PM (#15709716)
"But since the late seventies, money creation is only possible through the banking system via credit."

? I don't know how the Kroner works, but usually a central bank issues currency into the market in exchange for some kind of asset - this is the primary mechanism for controlling interest rates.

Yes, more credit is created through fractional reserver, but this is taken into account.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Thursday November 16, 2017 @01:33AM (#15710633)
> more credit is created through fractional reserve

There is no such thing as fractionnal reserve credit in 2017, bank don't need reserve to lend, they need reserve to hold bank accounts for their customers.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by alexasmyths on Thursday November 16, 2017 @11:28AM (#15713940)
?

The fact banks can lend out more than they have in deposits means there is 'fractional reserve credit', or 'fractional lending' currently, in 2017.

Most of the credit in the world is created this way, actually.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by kgwgk on Thursday November 16, 2017 @04:03PM (#15716590)
Have you seen the balance sheet of a bank? They don't lend out more than they have in deposits.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by alexasmyths on Thursday November 16, 2017 @04:39PM (#15716907)
Banks definitely lend out more than they have in deposits. [1]

It's why you've heard the term 'reserve ratios' etc..

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022416/why-b...

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by kgwgk on Thursday November 16, 2017 @06:41PM (#15717723)
The link you sent doesn't say that they lend out more than they have in deposits (it says loans create deposits... so they will always have more deposits than there are loans).

And the following passage doesn't make much sense: "When a bank makes a loan, there are two corresponding entries that are made on its balance sheet, one on the assets side and one on the liabilities side."

If you take a loan to buy a house, it will not be a new deposit at your bank. It will be a new deposit at the seller's bank. And against that new deposit, that bank can extend new loans. Etc. http://thenextturn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Fractional...

Of course when you are just getting the loan it will appear as a deposit at your bank. But this is not to balance the loan. The loan is coming from a reduction in reserves. This temporary deposit (on the liabilities side) will increase the reserves temporarily (on the assets side), but only until you take the money out to do whatever you asked the money for.

Definitely banks do not lend out more than they have in deposits (ignoring other forms of financing for banks, of course).

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by alexasmyths on Thursday November 16, 2017 @11:44PM (#15718992)
I see what you are saying, I agree, we are just arguing over words.

Technically, you are correct - they don't lend out more than what is deposited, but what is deposited is 'created' (or at least deposited and lent money against those deposits are both considered 'in circulation') by they or other banks, ergo, banks end up lending out considerably more money than is created from the central bank.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by kgwgk on Friday November 17, 2017 @03:28AM (#15720207)
We agree, then. Simplifying a bit, M0 (physical cash) is lower than M1 (M0 + checking accounts) and M2 (M1 + savings accounts) which are the usual measures for money in circulation. Note that there are also broader definitions of money, including as well long-term deposits and other money-like instruments.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by hackerguy99 on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @04:12PM (#15707853)
How else can money be created except through credit?
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @04:26PM (#15707979)
Direct reserve emission by the central bank. In practice, the central bank can just give some reserve to the governement account.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by badestrand on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @04:50PM (#15708181)
..or they can give it directly to people. There is an initiative for Europe that wants exactly that, Quantitive Easing for People. I love the idea and am sure it would do more for the economy than just pushing banks to lend more money.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @05:59PM (#15708810)
That could be a good idea, even though we don't really know the impact it will have on inflation. Imho, the impact would be close to zero in nowadays economy where the lack of demand is much more of a problem than an hypothetical shortage of goods. In the long run though, the demand would catch up and the supply could be the limit, like it was after the first oil crisis.

Personnally, I'd rather give the money to the governement like we did in the keynesian golden age, because it fuels the development of infrastructures, housing and social security. And at our point in history, it could be used to transition to a sustainable society. But that's because I don't trust the market on this, I'm kind of a socialist.

> am sure it would do more for the economy than just pushing banks to lend more money.

This is such a failure (esp. in the EU) I don't see how I could disagree with you on this.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by natslovR on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @06:02PM (#15708841)
They did it in Australia during the GFC. Spent 10 billion dollars giving 12 million people $900 each.

Share market jumped, retailers rolled out significant sales. People bought TVs.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by imtringued on Thursday November 16, 2017 @08:00AM (#15712288)
The problem with this idea is that the central bank doesn't have a list of bank accounts for the entire population and even if they did not everyone has a bank account.

It's more likely that negative interest rates will be passed onto consumer bank accounts by elmininating cash.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by geezerjay on Friday November 17, 2017 @02:20PM (#15725129)
If money is given directly to people then that money will disappear in non-productive spending such as luxury goods and services, which typically mean that the nation's trade balance would suffer greatly.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by dredmorbius on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @05:26PM (#15708478)
And what prevents the arbitrary extension of credit?

The present primary reliance on fractional reserve monetary is not a carved-in-stone requirement of financial systems, only the present norm.

If you're interested in ideas and thoughts on money, I'd suggest William Stanley Jevons writing as a starting point for modern views. A. Mitchell Innis's "What is Money?" (1913) is not entirely mainstream, but strikes me as among the more insightful enquiries I've read:

https://www.community-exchange.org/docs/what%20is%20money.ht...

I'd stumbled across that here: http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2013/09/money-created-ove...

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @05:44PM (#15708659)
> The present primary reliance on fractional reserve monetary is not a carved-in-stone requirement of financial systems, only the present norm.

Their is no fractionnal reserve banking in the modern world anymore. And circa 2007, virtually nothing prevented the infinit expansion of credit, with the result we all know.

If you want to learn more about these topics, the keen-krugman debate (more of a controversy than a civil debate) a few years ago was really enlightening.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by dredmorbius on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @06:42PM (#15709105)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201041/index.h...

The St. Louis Fed tends to have the largest set of articles on economic policy, generally.

Here are 632 results for "fractional reserve":

https://encrypted.google.com/search?hl=en&q=site%3Astlouisfe...

And limiting to 2010 and subesequently, 27. None declaring the concept dead.

https://encrypted.google.com/search?q=site%3Astlouisfed.org+...

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Thursday November 16, 2017 @01:30AM (#15710628)
> And limiting to 2010

The second paper on the page is from 1968 …

In the US, there is no limit anymore on how much credit you can lend given the amount of reserve you have, the reserve requirement is on deposit not credit lent.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_requirement

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by dredmorbius on Thursday November 16, 2017 @05:56PM (#15717466)
Please cite your source(s) that reserves and reserve requirements no longer exist, are no longer linked to money supply, and are no longer Fed policy.

Thank you.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by nrhk on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @04:34PM (#15708045)
It can be created backed up by assets instead of reputation though.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by rileyphone on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @04:27PM (#15707986)
Via being backed to some tangible good, eg gold.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @05:51PM (#15708743)
Or bitcoin ! Wait, this is ridiculous we have like two centuries showing us that commodity currency is a failure in an industrial economy.
Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by novalis78 on Wednesday November 15, 2017 @09:24PM (#15709847)
I would not be so fast in that conclusion. There is actually research that indicates that the opposite might be true:

http://saifedean.com/Saifedean%20Ammous%20The%20Bitcoin%20St...

A slowdown a la Thiel due to fundamentally flawed monetary policies.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by littlestymaar on Thursday November 16, 2017 @01:19AM (#15710592)
Thanks for the paper, but having skimmed through I don't think the word research is appropriate for this, it's more of a compilation of autrian propaganda than anything else.

Gold standard failed, no matter what libertarians like to fantasize about it.

Re:The Shock of Sweden's Housing Market Is Hitting the Count... by boznz on Thursday November 16, 2017 @12:31AM (#15710457)
Groan.. I think we need a version of Godwin's law for bitcoin