In other words, I'm not going to see flying cars in my lifetime, then? I mean, from my POV, that is some serious hand-waving, at least until we get some demonstrable AI in consumer products that's anywhere near what I'd trust to drive a car, let alone fly something.
How old are you now? 20, 30, 40? Given an average life of lets say 80. That's 40 years. So much could happen. Are you serious?
> at least until we get some demonstrable AI in consumer products that's anywhere near what I'd trust to drive a car
Google started the self driving concept back in 2009. 16 years later, here we are. Also, that's half of what's left of a potential lifetime.
Waymo is testing on public roads now [1].
Here's an article details the other competitors timelines [2]:
GM: Rumors of self-driving vehicles by 2018
Ford: Truly self-driving vehicles by 2021
Honda: Self-driving on the highway by 2020
Toyota: Self-driving on the highway by 2020
Renault-Nissan: 2020 for autonomous cars in urban conditions, 2025 for truly driverless cars
Volvo: Self-driving on the highway by 2021
Hyundai: Highway by 2020, urban driving by 2030
Daimler: Nearly fully autonomous by early 2020s
Fiat-Chrysler: CEO expects there to be some self driving vehicles on the road by 2021
BMW: Fully self-driving vehicles possible by 2021 Tesla: End of 2017
Lets say, that all the manufacturers slip and it's only until 2030 that it's a viable consumer product. That's still 26 years it took to develop. Way way less than half a lifetime.
Now if we extrapolate all that AI and knowledge and apply it to:
[3] - Uber enlists help from NASA in bid to launch flying taxis by 2020
then [4] - [5] - [6] and probably more companies who are racing to make this a reality. Even if it took them 20 years to do so.
You'd still see it in your life-time.
-----
So please. I'd love to hear a rebuttal.
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/07/google-wa...
[2]: https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self-driving-car-timeline...
[3]: https://news.sky.com/story/uber-enlists-help-from-nasa-in-bi...
[4]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/21/electric-fl...
[5]: https://www.wired.com/story/delorean-aerospace-flying-car/
[6]: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/17/flying-car-compan...
Try again, Sonny. :-)
So please. I'd love to hear a rebuttal.
My rebuttal is that I've walked this earth for a number of decades, and the track record of such predictions has been dismal. We've been "almost there" for decades. Tesla can't even accurately predict when they'll ship you a Model 3, and you're just going to take the word of Tesla, et. al. on when this AI-run technological miracle will happen?
But if you want a rebuttal, here it is: you list car companies that claim to have self-driving cars in the next three to four years. And yet there isn't a single company that has produced anything on a smaller scale (Siri/OKGoogle, home robot, or the like) AI/ML-related that has me thinking, "you know, I could imagine this expanding to something that could drive a car in a few years." Nothing, not a single product. If you have something along those lines that you think would fit the bill, that I can walk down to the store and buy today, I'd reconsider my position (slightly).
But that's cars, for which we have existing infrastructure for routes, refueling, and traveller services. And despite my pessimism, I expect self-driving cars in which I can take a nap on the way to happen within ten years. But flying cars? The thing that we can't even make for practical use even if you want to pilot it yourself? And we want to slap an AI control on it? With very little infrastructure to support the idea? Yup, I will be a pile of stone cold ashes before that happens.
But I hope I'm wrong about the "in my lifetime" part. Because if I am wrong, then I get a flying car and I'll have lived way past the point that I expected to. :-)
Well, it's all makes sense as to why you are so pessimistic.
You sound quite a lot like my Dad. He's in his 60s and I'm in my 40s. We have differing view points.
To him, technology is slow and things will take literally multi-decades. Because it did for him, that's how he experienced it.
Whereas for me, we've gone from iPhone 3 to X in a blink of an eye. We've gone from DeepMind creating AI to solve Go, to it training itself. Technology is starting to exponentially increase faster and faster. There will be breakthroughs coming that some of us won't even be aware of and that will lead to changes that affect everyone.
But one final thing. Even if you are 60, you still have another good 20 years. You may just see it yet!
Why, because I was writing software professionally before you were born? Maybe your Dad and I sound a lot alike because we’ve heard that young person saying something about wolves for decades. And your argument to the contrary? Your Dad and I have been hearing almost those exact words (different examples, of course) for decades as well.
You seem to think it’s different this time. Maybe is, maybe it isn’t. But perhaps you can understand my skepticism. Any article of “predictions from 20 years ago”, from any time period, will probably back me up on this.
Before:
- technology was at it's very infancy
- the number of capable engineers very small
- ai the glimmer in engineers eyes
Now:
- technology at the stage it's bearing fruit of the next iteration
- the number of engineers is vast and among several companies
- ai is here to do narrow tasks well
One thing that this period has, that the 60s didn't. Is that someone can leave university and do something so radical, it leaves the big guys speechless. A case in point, the solid lidar. Or look at George Hotz with his self driving company.
You couldn't do that in the 60s.
Or what about jumping another 20/30 years ahead?
- Quantum computers will be available
- General AI may be around
- Self Driving cars, flying cars and HyperLoop variants will be around.
- SpaceX inter-planetary transport may be around.
- Mars missions a reality.
As you go down this list. It's not just 1 company or the government that is doing the research or product. It's several companies all competing with each other and pouring Tens of Billions or dollars into the industry.
Those are the differences to then and now.
Trust me. If 20 years ago or 40 years ago. You'd said that we'd have two stage rockets both landing back. You'd be laughed out of the room. Nasa engineers said it was impossible... How things change!
Anyway we can go round in circles. Like my Dad, I doubt you will change your mind. But like I tell him, if you reach 90. You'll see a lot of changes!
Yeah, I think we’ve kinda reached that point. I mean, we’re going to have to wait twenty years to see who’s right. At which point, when you still don’t have your flying car, you’ll be arguing with someone younger about how cold fusion won’t happen in your lifetime. ;-)
No matter, though, as I would be the most tickled person on earth if/when I’m shown to be wrong. Because wrong though I might be, I get to have a flying car!
> The Flying Car
New technologies such as metallic hydrogen are on the horizon. Coupled with better advances in battery tech, we may see the advent of a hybrid approach where VTOL is used via battery and propulsion with hydrogen.
That said. Flying Cars may be mandated so that it's for use intra-cities or states. But then localised will be for autonomous driving.
Having synergistic travel mediums will allow people to travel further and faster. Imagine having flying cars, hyperloop, autonomous driving and spaceX to combine to get you from A to B over a great distance in a matter of hours? All running on clean energy?
More importantly, all AI driven without the need for human intervention?
> will require a new kind of air traffic control
Sure, AI driven. There's nothing wrong with having an AI that ensures cars fly amongst already agreed routes.
> "Boy howdy. And create new categories of horrific accidents. Let's not build a world where a drunk driver can plow through the roof of a school, shall we?"
How about No? How about having AI actually fly the car? We already have planes which go on autopilot for most of the journey. AI for flying cars should actually be a whole lot easier, than driving on the road.
There will be no drunk driver, because there will be no stick.
If you actually look at all the differing technologies that are coming out. Graphene, AI, Chemical processes, Battery Tech, etc, etc, etc. It's not difficult to see the next 5 or 10 years being a whole lot different to now.