Why, because I was writing software professionally before you were born? Maybe your Dad and I sound a lot alike because we’ve heard that young person saying something about wolves for decades. And your argument to the contrary? Your Dad and I have been hearing almost those exact words (different examples, of course) for decades as well.
You seem to think it’s different this time. Maybe is, maybe it isn’t. But perhaps you can understand my skepticism. Any article of “predictions from 20 years ago”, from any time period, will probably back me up on this.
Before:
- technology was at it's very infancy
- the number of capable engineers very small
- ai the glimmer in engineers eyes
Now:
- technology at the stage it's bearing fruit of the next iteration
- the number of engineers is vast and among several companies
- ai is here to do narrow tasks well
One thing that this period has, that the 60s didn't. Is that someone can leave university and do something so radical, it leaves the big guys speechless. A case in point, the solid lidar. Or look at George Hotz with his self driving company.
You couldn't do that in the 60s.
Or what about jumping another 20/30 years ahead?
- Quantum computers will be available
- General AI may be around
- Self Driving cars, flying cars and HyperLoop variants will be around.
- SpaceX inter-planetary transport may be around.
- Mars missions a reality.
As you go down this list. It's not just 1 company or the government that is doing the research or product. It's several companies all competing with each other and pouring Tens of Billions or dollars into the industry.
Those are the differences to then and now.
Trust me. If 20 years ago or 40 years ago. You'd said that we'd have two stage rockets both landing back. You'd be laughed out of the room. Nasa engineers said it was impossible... How things change!
Anyway we can go round in circles. Like my Dad, I doubt you will change your mind. But like I tell him, if you reach 90. You'll see a lot of changes!
Yeah, I think we’ve kinda reached that point. I mean, we’re going to have to wait twenty years to see who’s right. At which point, when you still don’t have your flying car, you’ll be arguing with someone younger about how cold fusion won’t happen in your lifetime. ;-)
No matter, though, as I would be the most tickled person on earth if/when I’m shown to be wrong. Because wrong though I might be, I get to have a flying car!
Well, it's all makes sense as to why you are so pessimistic.
You sound quite a lot like my Dad. He's in his 60s and I'm in my 40s. We have differing view points.
To him, technology is slow and things will take literally multi-decades. Because it did for him, that's how he experienced it.
Whereas for me, we've gone from iPhone 3 to X in a blink of an eye. We've gone from DeepMind creating AI to solve Go, to it training itself. Technology is starting to exponentially increase faster and faster. There will be breakthroughs coming that some of us won't even be aware of and that will lead to changes that affect everyone.
But one final thing. Even if you are 60, you still have another good 20 years. You may just see it yet!