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Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by worldsayshi on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:19PM (#15169543)
There's so much misinformation about renewable energy. I was quite surprised by this.

So how does it compare to nuclear energy?

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by philipkglass on Monday September 04, 2017 @03:25PM (#15170312)
Wind vs nuclear, USA edition:

Wind advantages:

* Faster to build

* Electricity production can begin before entire project is finished

* Lower cost per MWh generated

* Much less expensive worst-case-scenario failure mode

* No cooling water required

Disadvantages:

* No guaranteed output without storage add-ons

* Much lower areal density of annual generation (e.g. "how much energy can you generate yearly on a 10 km^2 parcel of land?")

Other differences:

* A nuclear reactor may operate 40-60 years before replacement; a wind turbine is more like 20-25 years

* Over its full life cycle, a wind farm demands less human labor per MWh generated

I put nuclear's long life under "other" rather than "advantages" because the other side of "long life" is "long term commitment." I also put the lower labor demands of wind under "other" because many people (not me, but many) consider "providing good jobs" as more of a benefit than a burden when they evaluate power sources.

On balance, I think that wind has the advantage now and for at least the next decade or so. Nuclear could become more attractive again once there's a high penetration of intermittent renewables on the grid that make guaranteed-output sources relatively more valuable. The high areal density of nuclear power vs. wind is much more of a theoretical than a real advantage in a country like the USA, which has low population density by global standards and a lot of windy area. The more interesting contest will be between wind and PV; the latter has historically cost more nameplate watt, but its costs have been falling faster. PV also has lower day-to-day variability even though its annual capacity factor is typically lower.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by samcheng on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:21PM (#15169563)
Once you factor in the costs to decommission a nuclear facility, nuclear becomes one of the most expensive options.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by olau on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:52PM (#15169746)
While decommissioning is indeed expensive and as far as I'm aware still mostly based on estimates since there's little experience with the full process, I don't think this statement is correct.

What's really, really expensive is building the plant in such a manner that it is both secure and maintainable.

The problem with securing it is that a critical event is so damn expensive (cf. Fukushima) that you need to secure it against all imaginable problems - and as you can imagine, that list is growing over time. And still, you can't buy insurance for a plant. So the government carries the bulk of the risk.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by DiThi on Monday September 04, 2017 @03:58PM (#15170505)
> you need to secure it against all imaginable problems

It's not that hard if you avoid greedy power plant owners. TEPCO was repeatedly warned many years ago that they had to build a barrier against tsunamis, and all other plants of the area followed the advice.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by RivieraKid on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:43PM (#15169705)
True, but nuclear energy has two important benefits. It has a stable output (so you don't have to invest in energy storage) and it takes up much less space (so it doesn't visually disrupt the landscape as much).
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by olau on Monday September 04, 2017 @02:01PM (#15169814)
Demand is not stable so you still need energy storage or something else to fill the peaks. The only alternative is not running the plant at full capacity, which will make it even more expensive.

Less space: that's true. But you still need a fair bit of space to the nearest city. :)

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by Caveman_Coder on Monday September 04, 2017 @06:06PM (#15171123)
That is not "the only alternative" in practice. If you're in a market (which most companies owning nuclear generation are) you'd sell your excess energy, you wouldn't lower the output of your nuclear generation resources.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by RivieraKid on Monday September 04, 2017 @03:17PM (#15170280)
Yeah, but with nuclear you only have to deal with demand variability, not supply variability.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by pjc50 on Monday September 04, 2017 @02:13PM (#15169875)
Unless the 1/1000 failure event happens and all the land for miles around is rendered uninhabitable and unfarmable.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by eru on Monday September 04, 2017 @02:39PM (#15170048)
We could have many, many more Chernobyl and Fukushima style disasters, and nuclear would still be safer than real-world coal.

(But that's an easy target to beat.)

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by DiThi on Monday September 04, 2017 @04:09PM (#15170559)
All failure events happened due to incompetence and/or greed, and increasingly unlikely due to new designs and improved protocols.

And even assuming those accidents are unavoidable, coal still produces more health problems and deaths.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by pjc50 on Monday September 04, 2017 @04:33PM (#15170692)
I'm glad we've abolished greed and incompetence in this future world.

(I'm also not sure why so many people are playing the nuclear/coal dichotomy when we got into this discussion from wind power and the default backup for renewables is now CCGT?)

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by RivieraKid on Monday September 04, 2017 @05:46PM (#15171049)
The situation is completely different now. Reactor design is much safer, operational safety is at another level and safety risks are more clearly understood.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by adrianN on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @01:14AM (#15172691)
We have had six nuclear accidents with more than local effects in the last sixty years, with hundreds of reactors running. None of them could have happened with modern designs.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by RivieraKid on Monday September 04, 2017 @03:07PM (#15170231)
In modern nuclear reactors, safety is not an issue.
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Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by chefkoch on Monday September 04, 2017 @04:27PM (#15170662)
So intentional circumventing of safety measures and (cost) cutting corners is not possible sich the new tech?

Almost in every industry i can think of there are countless examples of how profit is traded for safety. Why should this be any different?

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by guscost on Monday September 04, 2017 @06:53PM (#15171333)
Safety measures which cannot be intentionally circumvented (except by planting a bomb, I suppose) predate Chernobyl by many years. The RBMK was a horrible design which threw away passive safety[0] for convenience and cost savings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_nuclear_safety

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by dsfyu404ed on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @11:03AM (#15175881)
x2.

Modern designs for things that can fail dangerously incorporate features that cause the system to go down a branch that ends in a safe failure mode high up the tree rather than allowing the possibility of a less safe failure many more steps down the tree.

It's like how Uhaul overbuilds the living crap out of it's trailers then puts relatively (compared to the rest of the system) light duty tires on them. Better to have idiots blow out tires than other less safe failure modes.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by RivieraKid on Monday September 04, 2017 @04:01PM (#15170523)
Not sure what your point is.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by chefkoch on Monday September 04, 2017 @04:29PM (#15170675)
My point is many technologies were thought of being safe untill you encounter this one error, iceberg, negligence.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by RivieraKid on Monday September 04, 2017 @05:43PM (#15171038)
Yeah, but at this point, I think the risks of modern reactors are understood well-enough to say with confidence that safety is not a major argument against nuclear energy.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by virmundi on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:27PM (#15169594)
When you say that, does it take into account nuclear where we reuse fuel?
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by pjc50 on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:35PM (#15169653)
Fuel sourcing and disposal is a small part of the cost.

Edit: a projected cost breakdown for Hinkley Point C! https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Hinkley-Po... (figure 2)

So fuel is not inconsiderable; 6.2bn "fuel costs", 1.8 "fuel management", 2.6 "fuel disposal". From a total of £54.8 bn.

Add 10-50% to actual construction and decommissioning costs for overruns.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by worldsayshi on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:28PM (#15169597)
And yet still there are so many people that believe that nuclear is the only pragmatic path to a green energy future.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by olau on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:45PM (#15169724)
Traditional nuclear plants are simply too expensive to build.

They are not competitive, and haven't been for decades if I'm not mistaken.

It's not impossible that a new design could be cheaper, but figuring in both development, test, and time for industrialization, we're probably at least 20 years from that. Meanwhile, both PV and wind are falling in price from industrialization.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by edison85 on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:58PM (#15169794)
They are very very cheap, the regulations make up the bulk of their costs. Most regulations are important but the costly ones are not and it takes 10+ years to get approvals due to beuracratic hold ups. Even smoothening those out and keeping exact same safety standards would cut prices and time significantly

That said I am very pro Wind. The American Midwest is a goldmine for that and I'm very excited to see it increase over the next five but I hope they keep the tax credit, wind growth will significantly fall without it

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by hwillis on Monday September 04, 2017 @02:40PM (#15170057)
Not true. Nuclear is fantastically expensive in every country regardless of regulations or NIMBYism. Regulatory expense is a minority problem that exacerbates the core issues.

The big problems are mostly competency. A nuclear plant requires huge parts from tons of companies all over the planet. People are always messing it up. The biggest issue is that this huge coordination problem makes everything take way longer, which means almost everyone involved with the plant is sitting around getting paid to do nothing. That's incredibly expensive when the project stretches over a decade.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by opo on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @01:49PM (#15177495)
>... Nuclear is fantastically expensive in every country regardless of regulations or NIMBYism.

Not true. One example is France - they generate over 70% of their power through nuclear:

>...France enjoys one of the lowest electricity prices in Europe; at 14.72 euro cents per kWh, the average cost of electricity in France is 26.5% cheaper than the EU average (20.02 euro cents per kWh).

https://en.selectra.info/energy-france/guides/electricity-co...

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by hwillis on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @02:26PM (#15177851)
The per kWh cost of electricity does not correlate well with the actual amount of money paid, particularly for nuclear. The cost of building plants was and is immense, and was heavily subsidized for obvious reasons. There is a reason France is not building more nuclear plants- they are scaling their nuclear energy back 30% over the next 8 years.

Take Flamanville: it's basically the posterchild for expensive nuclear. It's French and huge so it should theoretically be one of the most affordable reactors in the world; the French are nuclear experts. Construction began in 1979 and has was planned to end in 1985.

Instead, it's been delayed until 2019 and the budget has inflated from 3.3 billion euro to 10.5 billion. In USD that's an overnight cost of $4,522 USD/kW not counting financing, and a 40 year construction period. You'd have to be insane to invest in that, and it's one of the cheapest nuclear projects. The overnight cost of advanced nuclear in the US is $6,000/kW[1].

For comparison, the overnight cost of natural gas is $700/kW and wind is $1900/kW (with capacity factor >30%). Nuclear can't compete on price even before the cost of fuel, security and staff are factored in.

[1]: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost...

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by opo on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @09:50PM (#15180592)
>...The cost of building plants was and is immense, and was heavily subsidized for obvious reasons.

Do you have any evidence that they subsidized nuclear as much as wind/solar have been subsidized in other countries?

Rather than focussing on the cost of the plant, it is more accurate to look at the levelized cost.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source

Certainly not "fantastically expensive in every country".

>...Construction began in 1979 and has was planned to end in 1985. Instead, it's been delayed until 2019 ... and a 40 year construction period ...

That seems to be misrepresenting the situation quite a bit. The first 2 reactors came on line in 1986 and 1987 and have produced many terra watt hours of power since then. The third reactor began construction in December 2007 and is a new design which has had problems and cost overruns.

>...For comparison, the overnight cost of natural gas is $700/kW

Unfortunately, the CO2 emissions and methane releases from drilling/processing natural gas might make natural gas as bad for climate change as burning coal. Unfortunately without a major advance in grid storage, there will likely be major increases in the use of natural gas.

Given the political environment in the US, there will likely be little role for nuclear power for at least the next few decades. Instead it will likely be China which builds/deploys nuclear power.

Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by dx034 on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @03:41AM (#15173227)
Since Hinkley Point C is forecasted to cost ~£50bn, I don't think that regulation really makes up the bulk of that. Most of that will be for safety measures to ensure that it can run safely. The result is a power plant that produces energy above prices of both renewables and gas.
Re:Wind Energy Is One of the Cheapest, and It's Getting Cheaper by TomK32 on Monday September 04, 2017 @04:06PM (#15170547)
Aside from stuff others mentioned, there's a social/political component differing them. Nuclear energy has always been pushed by politicians. Harvesting the mighty atom is a prestige project and not something a business that wants simple tech that's quick to market. Wind energy in comparison is ancient, well-understood and something every person can harvest. Same with solar, generate your own, very anarchic.