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Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by NedIsakoff on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:28AM (#15124499)
I posted this to a friend's facebook when he asked, I need to re-write it better but the idea is there. No one wants DPRK to fall or KJU to die, its too many fucking refugees.

What you don't realize is that no one (I don't mean average person, I mean politicians and leaders) really cares what the DPRK (by extension the Kims) do to their own people as long as they are not a threat to anyone else. China likes having the DPRK there as a buffer against the American forces in South Korea. It also provides a distraction as China is claiming the entire South China Sea.

South Korea while officially saying they want re-unification doesn't really want it. If and when the DPRK falls, you got 25 million refugees who are barely able to function in the modern world streaming to China or South Korea. China will not take the refugee in, they will either deploy PLA at the border and stop them or take over the DPRK as a puppet state. The economic cost to absorb the refugees is enormous. In the 20 years after West Germany and East Germany merged, over 1.3 trillion euros was spent on the former East Germany and its still behind economically the former West Germany. The GDP per capita for East Germany at the time of the merger was 10000USD (1990 dollars) and right now for DPRK it's less than 1500USD (current dollars). West Germany was also economically much stronger at the time then South Korea is now and has a much higher population (~60M West, ~15M East) compared to the Koreas (~50M South, ~25M North). South Korea doesn't have the money or the economic poweress help the DPRK like West Germany did with East Germany.

EDIT: read this instead, this guy explained what I said much better on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_kor...

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by apetresc on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:30AM (#15124923)
I don't know very much about geopolitical whatevers, but can anyone explain-like-I'm-five why everyone assumes that taking out the North Korean government has to involve 25 million refugees (which is the entire population of the country) streaming into China and South Korea? They're not going to nuke all of NK into inhabitability, people will still live there. I'm sure some people will want to leave now that they're not under pain of death for doing so, but probably the vast majority will stay. Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did?

(Not trying to be snarky, genuinely curious, because every time this subject comes up, everyone starts throwing around the "China doesn't want 25M refugees overnight" argument, so I assume there's some background I'm missing.)

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by mikeash on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:52AM (#15125124)
Keep in mind that NK is in far worse shape than most (all?) of the Communist countries whose governments collapsed around 1991. Not that life in those countries was all sunshine and rainbows and fluffy rabbits, but the life in NK is a whole different scale.

Those governments also fell internally, meaning the people were pushing for a change and were somewhat ready to make it happen. Invading North Korea would be pretty different.

One big unknown (at least to me) is the level of indoctrination. Related to the above, a lot of people in Eastern Europe were fed up with their government, didn't believe anything they said, and were ready to build something better. It seems like a lot more North Koreans might buy into their government's views, in which case they might flee the "evil imperialist invaders." Heck, even without indoctrination, a reasonable person might not want to be near the fighting.

25 million refugees is obviously a bit much. The entire country won't pick up and move. But it would probably be many millions.

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by tinbad on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:58AM (#15125162)
Looks like by 2007, the war in Iraq resulted in about 2 million[1] refugees, that's roughly 5% of the population.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_Iraq#Iraq_War_.282...

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by golergka on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:38AM (#15124990)
> Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell

Not Europe, no - because most of them didn't have the legal status to gain any european citizenship. But million jews rushed into Israel, with a total population of 8 million, which greatly affected the country.

Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone - and I don't doubt that a LOT of north koreans will jump on this opportunity right away.

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by tome on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:42AM (#15125037)
> Given that South Korea officially 'wants' unification, they won't have any other choice but to grant citizen status to everyone

Of course they'll have the choice not to immediately grant citizenship to 25 million!

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by NedIsakoff on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @12:52PM (#15125652)
The comparison is East Germany vs West Germany, which did.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by pmoriarty on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:49AM (#15125090)
"Did Russian emigrants overwhelm Europe when the Iron Curtain fell, or Germans when the Berlin Wall did?"

Those were largely peaceful changes. Neither Germany nor the Soviet Union got nuked nor have millions of people die in a war, as is very likely to happen if war breaks out with North Korea. If they had, then yes, there would have been probably millions of refugees trying to run for their lives. Take a look at any other major war and you'll see that this is in fact what happens.

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by williamscales on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:49AM (#15125094)
To me it seems like this assumption is based on the fact that relatively many North Koreans try to escape the country even though it's very dangerous. If trying to leave the country isn't going to get someone killed by the government any more, maybe more people will try to leave in search of better conditions. Will it be 25 million? Who knows, probably not, but you could imagine whole villages leaving together.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by yomly on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:34AM (#15124547)
I get what you're saying, but I think South Korea would bear that cost.

I personally know people whose family was split by the arbitrary North/South border divide. For them, I think absorbing and reintegrating the population of the North Korean means more to them than just an economic burden.

Given that the South Korean government were elected democratically, you would hope that they would be prepared to represent the interests of the population.

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by NedIsakoff on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:40AM (#15124592)
That's one example, but time is against it. The generation that was split by the border divide/war is dying out. The younger generation doesn't really care about the DPRK.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by exhilaration on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:43AM (#15124611)
I've been told the same thing about Ireland and Northern Ireland - the younger generation of Irish don't care at all about Northern Ireland.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by jaymzcampbell on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:27AM (#15124903)
With Brexit and the possibility of a return to a "hard" border that is rapidly changing I think (ex-Newry, NI, person here, now living in London). Though I'd say this hasn't gone away at all - there's plenty of "young people" taking part in this visceral display every year[1] and it to me at least, every time I go back it seems to be getting worse not better for at least the past 10 years.

There's been lots of talk that this won't happen but it's hard to see how there won't be at least some sort of checks reintroduced. This isn't too unusual, we had the Common Travel Area[2] since 20s well before Schengen but a return to any sort of militarized or "formal" border could easily kick it all off again in the border counties.

For an idea of the difficulty here's what crossing the border looks like the BBC did a little drone video where it's very easy to see how "leaky" it would be [3]. When I was growing up it looked more like this for the main routes [4].

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz35L-TBt9M

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area

[3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northern-ireland-40104333/cr...

[4] https://i.pinimg.com/736x/23/a3/54/23a354665613f3aa695f0e5c3...

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by thanksgiving on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:47AM (#15124642)
I am sure you're right and I hope the old saying "where there is a will, there is a way" is true, but the numbers paint a very bleak picture. Even if the will is there, as GP said:

> South Korea doesn't have the money or the economic poweress help the DPRK like West Germany did with East Germany.

Realistically, a merger has to make sense for the chebols/conglomerates, right?

Edit: also where do China PR and Japan stand on unification? I've read claims that neither is very fond of it?

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by mikeash on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:58AM (#15125164)
It's worth pointing out that East Germany was one of the most (maybe the most) prosperous countries in the Soviet sphere, whereas North Korea is horrendously poor. To put some numbers on it, the East German GDP in 1989 was about $160 billion, with a population of about 16 million, so about $10,000 per capita. North Korea's GDP is about $12 billion with a population of about 25 million, for a per-capita GDP of about $600.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by agumonkey on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:56AM (#15124690)
Interesting point, but how many families were split between North and South ? If it's only people near the border, I bet a dollar the other ones will quickly bail out of helping NKans if the problem seems too large.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by isseu on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:37AM (#15124567)
4 years ago I read this excellent comment on reddit explaining the same topic. (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1etaxd/north_kor...)
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by NedIsakoff on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:41AM (#15124594)
That guy did a much better job then I, extra credit.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by ricardobeat on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:34AM (#15124961)
Considering the cost of war as seen in the middle east, wouldn't it be cheaper to make some kind of deal where the West, SK and Japan dump massive amounts of resources into improving NK's economy, in exchange for the regime opening up? Would they refuse a trillion-dollar offer?
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by _Codemonkeyism on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:41AM (#15125029)
Please explain US interventions in South America and invasions in Middle America in light of "do to their own people as long as they are not a threat to anyone else".
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by mikeash on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:59AM (#15125169)
What's the relevance of that? They're not claiming that this is a universal principle.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by csomar on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:05AM (#15124765)
Looking through Google Maps, my guess is that they are better than the average non-developed country. They just don't have open trade, so their GDP per capita is very low comparing to reality. For example, they have two underground metro lines. For a city of only 2.5million, that's more than what other developing countries have.

I think they'll be really fine.

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by nazgul17 on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @06:59PM (#15128311)
Sure, but they still don't have an electric nor an internet network. I also wonder what is their level of education.
Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by devdoomari on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:54AM (#15125141)
so... we should wait until NK population shrinks? or should we wait until NK prepares its population for its demise?

whatever you're suggesting, it's about now or some future time...

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by baklavabook on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @11:54AM (#15125139)
I said this in the other thread (before someone maliciously took the thread down using the dupe command):

If we have to address this at the root, it's China, the pink elephant in the room. China, our biggest trading partner and also an authoritarian government (US is probably kicking itself allowing such a horrible government to be so powerful), is propping up this vassel state and prevent any progress made in the peninsula. If China wasn't propping them up, North Korean government would have already fell long time ago.

So what happens now? Do we just let China keep protecting its puppet until the puppet has shipped a nuclear bomb to a port in Los Angeles? I hope not. I hope the world takes action before then - I hope the world punishes China and North Korea

Re:Japan Wakes to a Text Message: Missile Approaching by bluGill on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @12:17PM (#15125323)
China wants us a lot more than that puppet. China has uses for that puppet which why it exists, but if that puppet starts attacking the US it is safe to assume China will lead the war against them.