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Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by pedrocr on Saturday July 22, 2017 @02:29PM (#14828576)
I'm not saying it's not economics, just that bitcoin (and the other cryptocurrencies in existence) seem to have quite a few fatal flaws going forward from just our understanding of normal economics, let alone a new branch someone wants to start.
Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by sillysaurus3 on Saturday July 22, 2017 @02:42PM (#14828646)
From your Reddit comment:

I have no issue with the people that invented a specific technology getting rewarded for that. But that's not what's happening here. You're giving a few early adopters most of what you want to then use to price all the assets in the world.

I'm not sure anybody is saying that bitcoin will be used to price all assets in the world. USD currently isn't, for example. It's just the dominant currency.

A reasonable estimate for all the dollars in the world is 10 trillion. Say that bitcoin being a full sucess is it being valued at a total of 5 billion. Now consider that Satoshi has about 5% of all bitcoins that will ever exist. That puts him as 3x richer than the current richest man in the world. I don't see anything in bitcoin that justifies that kind of payout and that's for the inventor of the thing.

We don't have a justice system. We have a legal system. And this seems to be allowed under our legal system, so I'm not sure the moral argument is valid.

Why do you feel it's immoral for Satoshi to own 5%? We don't even know if he's alive or still has access to the coins, but let's say for the sake of argument that he does.

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by alexandros on Saturday July 22, 2017 @02:52PM (#14828699)
To go one step further, who says inventing a better currency shouldn't be worth 3x as much as creating e.g. walmart or microsoft? Sounds exactly like the sort of civilisational step forward that should be rewarded handily. Remember, we're talking about a world in which bitcoin has absorbed 50% of the world's assets, presumably because it's better in some real way than other currencies.
Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by pedrocr on Saturday July 22, 2017 @03:00PM (#14828740)
>Remember, we're talking about a world in which bitcoin has absorbed 50% of the world's assets

Bitcoin proponents keep misunderstanding this. Most of the world's assets are not currencies, they are stocks, bonds, land, etc that we do use currencies to price but we are not holding currencies when we own them. The fact that central banks can inflate currencies doesn't change the value of assets just their pricing under those currencies. So creating a new way to price assets with something that has a guaranteed fixed supply is not a big innovation. If you want that just use gold. It has a much longer history, much less volatility, much less chance of being replaced by the next fad, and isn't mainly owned by a few recent early adopters.

>presumably because it's better in some real way than other currencies.

That's the point someone still needs to make. Modern financial systems are pretty efficient and featureful. Bitcoin is for people that believe in a narrow scenario where normal institutions have failed and yet the internet and the mining infrastructure is still working. To me that seems incredibly unlikely especially given how mining economics and evolution have made it highly centralized in a few players in China.

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by cromon on Saturday July 22, 2017 @06:05PM (#14829670)
Considering how old gold is its distribution is pretty slim

https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/who-owns-worlds-gold/24...

And it's far from immune to being manipulated.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1489601367.php

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by pedrocr on Saturday July 22, 2017 @02:49PM (#14828691)
>I'm not sure anybody is saying that bitcoin will be used to price all assets in the world. USD currently isn't, for example. It's just the dominant currency.

Most things are actually priced in dollars to some extent, perhaps with some conversions. Maybe euros in some other cases.

>Why do you feel it's immoral for Satoshi to own 5%? We don't even know if he's alive or still has access to the coins, but let's say for the sake of argument that he does.

I'm not making a morality argument. Just pointing out that it will be a hard pill to swallow that for the (in my view small) advantages of cryptocurrencies we as a society complete the most massive wealth transfer to a single individual ever attempted. For me it's an argument as to why it's implausible crypto currencies will take hold as they exist today. They require a huge wealth transfer to a few early adopters for very little gain. If the advantages were greater it seems more likely to me that a new chain would be bootstrapped but I'm not even convinced it's worthwhile enough that it will actually take hold on a massive scale.

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by guscost on Saturday July 22, 2017 @04:01PM (#14829053)
> bitcoin (and the other cryptocurrencies in existence) seem to have quite a few fatal flaws going forward from just our understanding of normal economics

How long would Bitcoin have to survive these flaws before you start to question your understanding of economics?

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by pedrocr on Saturday July 22, 2017 @04:19PM (#14829136)
It's not enough to survive it has to become a relevant currency and/or store of value worldwide. At 40B$ in market cap bitcoin is still a curiosity in financial terms. Worldwide dollar supply and US GDP are in the 15-20 T$ range. If Bitcoin reaches half that in value and in transactions without fixing any flaws I'll be impressed.
Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by guscost on Saturday July 22, 2017 @04:56PM (#14829330)
This isn't consistent with your original claim ("fatal flaw" implies that the perception of any existing value will be destroyed), but OK. I'll check back in ~25 years.
Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by PeterisP on Saturday July 22, 2017 @08:46PM (#14830288)
The current market cap is not appropriate for the current usage of bitcoin - it's like a startup valuation that "prices in" the assumption that the usage will massively increase.

Thus any limitations that would prevent a large growth in adoption would also destroy most of the existing/stored value, since whenever "the market" would believe that the usage growth is going to stop, the price and the market capitalization would drastically decrease.

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by guscost on Saturday July 22, 2017 @09:09PM (#14830376)
> whenever "the market" would believe that the usage growth is going to stop

If you're talking about transactions-per-second, how could the market not already know that this is the case? Computers have finite resources, and a decentralized immutable proof-of-work ledger would be really inefficient to run on ten billion devices forever.

But if you mean growth in total perceived value, Bitcoin's use as a trust-less standard for floating other currencies could continue indefinitely. I'm not able to talk seriously about the proof-of-work/proof-of-stake argument, or the inflation/deflation argument, but there's no known technical reason that each Bitcoin can't be worth a trillion dollars in the far future. In addition to the economic and political theory, you're basically betting that asymmetric crypto, SHA, and the Bitcoin source are all mathematically sound, and probably that physics imposes serious limits on computing power, if you want to make that (super) long play.

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by pedrocr on Saturday July 22, 2017 @05:04PM (#14829366)
I specifically said "fatal flaws going forward". Nobody cares if your magic cards trading platform is not very economically sound.
Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by guscost on Saturday July 22, 2017 @05:12PM (#14829398)
That's a wispy rhetorical straw you're grasping now, but I won't deny it is a real straw. Fair enough.

The phrase "limiting flaw" would be less confusing.

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by pedrocr on Saturday July 22, 2017 @05:39PM (#14829540)
There's nothing rethorical about saying that something that currently works at a small scale can reveal fatal flaws when it tries to reach a large scale.
Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by guscost on Saturday July 22, 2017 @06:07PM (#14829679)
To be honest I'm a bit baffled. Are you claiming that once these flaws are revealed, the perceived value in Bitcoin will be destroyed? If no, what purpose does the word "fatal" serve? If yes, couldn't you answer my original question?

As an aside, the phrase "rhetorical question" has a special meaning, but the adjective "rhetorical" just means anything relating to discussion. I was trying to say that you veered off into a meta-argument about the words we were using, which unfortunately I'm now continuing.

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by pedrocr on Saturday July 22, 2017 @06:46PM (#14829858)
It seems like you're nitpicking terminology but in case my original intent wasn't clear I'll try again. I'm saying that bitcoin has fatal flaws to work as a global currency at scale (I've estimated what that means) that aren't fatal flaws to work as a niche currency (it's present scale). So the answer to your original question is that surviving at it's present scale forever would not be surprising. Scaling and then revealing its flaws would indeed be fatal as there's no going back to being a niche once it scales and fails to work properly.
Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by guscost on Saturday July 22, 2017 @06:52PM (#14829873)
Do you have an example of a flaw in all existing cryptocurrencies? I've heard about the current scaling challenges with Bitcoin.
Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by pedrocr on Saturday July 22, 2017 @07:14PM (#14829954)
>"a cryptocurrency where the founder owns 5% of all the currency that will ever exist and deflation is builtin and fixed seems like it fails some fairly basic things we know about standard economics"

This is the flaw I was pointing at. Others have said that while there's some research there doesn't seem to be a solution for it. A cryptocurrency that scales it's size in rough proportion to its trading and thus keeps prices in check with maybe slight inflation would be interesting. It's almost surely difficult to accomplish given the restrictions in what you can do in a distributed consensus type of setup.

I'm not convinced it even matters though. Of all the important things we need solutions for in the world cryptocurrency doesn't seem to help any than I can see.

Re:Cryptoeconomics: Paving the Future of Blockchain Technology by guscost on Saturday July 22, 2017 @07:27PM (#14830024)
> A cryptocurrency that scales it's size in rough proportion to its trading and thus keeps prices in check with maybe slight inflation would be interesting.

These already exist, with all kinds of incentive schemes and target inflation rates. If you're saying that deflationary Bitcoins can't possibly "win" in the long term, but something else could, I guess it's plausible and I don't know a lot about that.

I do know that Bitcoin was started partly in protest of inflationary Fed policy.