>Kaspersky called that false flag scenario "possible" but "improbable."

This is more a standard disclaimer of any intelligence analyst than a serious qualification in this case. When trying to attribute something that allows easy copycats, an investigator will obviously constantly be thinking "is this clue genuine or intentionally placed to suggest a different origin"? And without an incredible amount of evidence, it's hard to definitively say certain malware or tools were written or used by a particular entity.

The DNC hack is self-consistent and aligned with known motives of suspected actors, so the public sees a false flag as possible but improbable. WannaCry came seemingly out of nowhere using a mixed bag of tricks from unfamiliar actors... absent context, the public will entertain any explanation.

The N Korea thing was the same even under Obama (the Sony hack) people wanted to believe the US was just trying to make the N Koreans "look bad" or create excuses for something (as if N KOrea needed any help in that regard).

More importantly, why do you want people to be convinced of this? What difference does it make? If it is used as some sort of justification for (more?) economic sanctions or an attack, then I don't think any realistic hacking attempt is going to be enough. If you just want this attributed to NK, what is the point? If people don't know enough about the situation to be sure, and they have no trust in any authority on the subject, then the way forward would be for an authority to build up trust with those people and then claim it is attributed to NK.

The public sentiment gains from drumming up a case against NK aren't measurably enhanced by this enough to justify the effort. I wouldn't think. But one never knows.

I heard that the DPRK was definitely involved, but that they involved themselves at a later point in the publicity over the attack, and that it the original attack was initiated by disparate individuals only loosely cooperating.

Not to disparage your points on the Lazarus group. I've heard the same about their sophistication. I know next to nothing about the WannaCry attack besides the tragedy of the NHS succumbing to it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11...

It's not going to single-handedly pull the country out of recession, but it is probably the best utilisation of those computer-skilled individuals who developed it.

No-one cares about $75 being used to buy heroin on The Silk Road, but people will notice $75,000,000 being moved - and Bitcoin is not anonymous either, merely psuedonominous.

I'd go with more like $10M over a few weeks.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html