Agreed. There are plenty of people who work hard their entire career and don't get any kind of windfall. Of course there's a lifetime of choices and circumstances spicing up the mix so who can say how much is one vs the other, but the point is they are out there.

I think the underlying point trying to be made though can be summed up by this quote from a movie clip I saw channel surfing in a hotel the other day: "You want the job after this job, but you need this job first."

I think this is the problem: People expecting windfalls: "a large amount of money that is won or received unexpectedly."

There exists a reasonably reliable path to success for most people:

- Look at the people whom you consider to be successful who got there mostly through hard work.

- Do what they did, think about the things they think about, obsess over it. Let it consume you. You won't be good at first, but keep doing it. It will take time.

- Don't think you know better.

- Try not to spend too much time or too many brain cycles on recreation or non-work-focused friendships/relationships. (If you choose to do this, that's fine, but recognize that it is a choice that will define your future.)

That's about it.

That might work, assuming you grew up with a decent education, a stable home, in a safe environment with a supporting network of friends/family. Unfortunately, this does not apply for most people.

I disagree. The thought that you have unique roadblocks is, in itself, disempowering.

I agree with idea that one should not focus on what is holding them back, but I was responding to the claim that there is a reasonably reliable path to success for most people, in the sense that success conveys "a windfall" or otherwise making you financially secure and independent.

However, there is no reliable path for a woman in Saudi Arabia, or poor child with drug addict parents, or the family of the lowest caste in India who have no assets. Surely they can help little by little and better their future generations, but they will by and large be gone before anyone gets a "windfall".

The term "Windfall" comes from Apples which are knocked from the tree by wind, so you can just go and pick them off the ground and sell them without having to go to all the trouble of picking them.

So strictly speaking, that value was always coming your way you just received it early for less effort than otherwise. Unless you're scrumping that is ;-)

Not sure how this ties in to our metaphor here but it kind of feels poignant.

This is exactly the same mistake of Survivorship Bias.

I can't believe you responded in a thread about not looking at one guy who worked hard and succeeded by telling people to "copy one guy, work hard, and you'll succeed".

I love your spin on it though. Have no friends!

> Agreed. There are plenty of people who work hard their entire career and don't get any kind of windfall.

There's a lot of talk about survivorship bias, but I have to admit, in 10 years that I've worked in game development, I've never seen anyone like that.

Either people change careers, industries or you can see that they're already burned out. I've never seen a good performer with a lot of experience in the same field and career, and ambition for more, who would be stuck.

So, other than the ones that quit or burn-out, the success rate is high?

That's almost the definition of survivorship bias.

No. Most of the people just don't really have high ambitions and are quite content as regular developers, designers and artists. They know that becoming a studio head or something like that means working 80 hours a week and no social life, for a long time, and they chose not to pursue this.

Sounds like you're falling for the fallacy fallacy.

Hard work pays off quite often. Hard work opens you up to opportunities quite often too, especially in an information-related career.

Survivorship bias is by far my favorite bias

Not all could agree