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Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by pk3 on Sunday April 09, 2017 @03:21PM (#14073890)
I wouldn't go so far as to call it useless - anachronistic perhaps, but useless no.

When the Dow was first calculated, real time market capitalization for individual companies wasn't a thing. Prevailing market price was a decent enough proxy that Charles Dow could make an index of leading industrial firms out of prices (and price changes) alone.

As others have pointed out, over a long enough time period the Dow Jones has a high correlation with market cap weighted indices. Its annual volatility has been about 1.5 percentage points more a year, but average returns over any reasonable holding period are barely different than, say, the S&P 500.

There's an even better argument against the Dow than the price weighting though - the somewhat arbitrary company inclusions. One of the more interesting pieces of history is IBM's 40-year 'vacation' from the Dow. If IBM had stayed in for the 40 years after 1939 you could tack on another 5 figure number to today's index price.

Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by JumpCrisscross on Sunday April 09, 2017 @07:38PM (#14074932)
> I wouldn't go so far as to call it useless

At this point, it's popular art. For any purpose one might use the Dow, the S&P 500 is better.

Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by zeroer on Sunday April 09, 2017 @07:54PM (#14074999)
Any purpose? What about curmudgeonly criticism?
Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by umanwizard on Sunday April 09, 2017 @03:28PM (#14073925)
> When the Dow was first calculated, real time market capitalization for individual companies wasn't a thing

How is this possible? People were buying shares without knowing what fraction of the company they represented ??

Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by peller on Sunday April 09, 2017 @04:03PM (#14074087)
Probably he's referring the "real time" part. Electronic ticker tapes were invented in 1867, and were relatively prevalent by the 1870s. (The Dow was first calculated on May 26, 1896.) But even still, for average investors, most information back then would have traveled at horse, train, or steamboat speeds.
Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by umanwizard on Sunday April 09, 2017 @04:55PM (#14074310)
Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to prices?
Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by peller on Sunday April 09, 2017 @05:41PM (#14074496)
Certainly it would. I'm not exactly sure how a longer-term investor would have gone about buying stock then, but probably there was a broker in their city that had a big ticker board showing the current prices (as quickly as some kid could write them up on it as they came in from the tape). And you'd walk up to a window and place your order, and just like today, you'd actually pay whatever price your order was filled at back on the exchange's floor (well, today it's an ECN, but you get my point). Eventually, your broker would deliver physical stock certificates to you.

For shorter-term or smaller transactions, bucket shops were very common. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucket_shop_(stock_market) There's all sorts of shenanigans that went on with those - they were more like bookies; you never actually owned the underlying securities you were speculating on.

It's also worth remembering that things were vastly less regulated and insider trading/outright manipulation were very common (the SEC didn't come into existence until 1934).

Good reading on this time period if you're interested: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Opera...

Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by pk3 on Sunday April 09, 2017 @03:55PM (#14074062)
More in the sense that we don't realize how spoiled we are (and how the standards have improved). I don't even have to leave this table to see the effects of share issuance or buybacks from a public company, and it's all updated in close to real time for me.

It's not that you couldn't make a _pretty-reasonable_ estimate, it's just that the ecosystem is much improved and easier to roll up for the indices we follow today. The Wilshire is from the 70s and the first flavor of the S&P came 30 years after the Dow (and was 'only' 90 firms). If you read Security Analysis (first edition: 1934) you can still see some of this in action; it mentions how only some statistical services (paid!) would calculate/estimate the current number of shares outstanding.

Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by kgwgk on Sunday April 09, 2017 @06:27PM (#14074676)
I don't know what is "updated in close to real time" for you, but normally companies disclose the number of shares outstanding and details about buybacks programs once per quarter.
Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by twblalock on Sunday April 09, 2017 @03:54PM (#14074053)
They had a good estimate, but not in real time. All of the information was delayed.
Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by umanwizard on Sunday April 09, 2017 @04:55PM (#14074313)
(As I said on the other comment) wouldn't that also apply to prices?
Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by twblalock on Sunday April 09, 2017 @08:14PM (#14075062)
Yes.

It still does, actually, but on a much shorter delay. If you make a market buy order with an online broker, it will execute pretty much instantly, but the price might have fluctuated between the time you pressed the button and the time the order was filled. It usually makes little difference, but people have ended up paying a lot more than they expected on some rare occasions.

This is common enough with ETFs that some brokers advise their clients to always use limit orders.

Re:Why the Dow is a useless market index by kgwgk on Sunday April 09, 2017 @06:14PM (#14074621)
Do you think people buying shares now know what fraction of the company they represent?