Granted, I make the effort to network, especially with people who I have enough of a working relationship with that they'd recommend me. But it seems just based on my quick sanity check, that networking could easily work well enough to find a job should I decide I need one. And that's not even counting the 4-5 unsolicited contacts per month that come in from recruiters that I was referred to them by someone I know.
Sample size of 1 and perhaps I distinguish myself more than others, but I can say with certainty that the effort I've put into networking means I won't have problems getting an interview in the current market. If the market tanks, the story might be different.
But management is also a discipline apart from the work being done by the team. I made a ton of mistakes early in my time as a manager. I was also fortunate enough to work for a company that had a management training program that was hugely helpful. And I'm also fortunate to have a parent that teaches interpersonal dynamics in a business school, so I've had a lot of exposure to the theory behind the practice. I feel this has made me a lot better manager now than I was when I first started, despite the fact that my actual abilities to write code have suffered somewhat from lack of practice.
But I think your math is off.
- you need powerful people
- you need to know people well
- you need to know them IRL
- you need to know them if they know you
- one person can only help you get a job at one place
- the person must be in your line of work
However my experience has been rather:
- anybody has the potential to bring you an opportunity. They have friends, family and colleagues, and they talk. My first internship was from the cousin of a friend of my mother needing somebody. 3 layers of indirection.
- superficial relationships (met once in a meetup, sport club, whatever) do carry opportunity. When people are looking for a worker, they prefer somebody they know, but will rarely find it and settle for anybody they can assess.
- IRC channels, forum and social networks are all doors to get jobs. Even MMORPG, MOBA or RTS. Actually they are filled with geeks, they all work in companies having some need for a recruitment or the other. And they are having fun with you.
- Even if you don't know somebody, if the person knows your work, it's a start. Github is a great personal showcase. I personally don't send my resume first, but my link to my stackoverflow account because it's quite famous in the Python community.
- people can talk about you to somebody working at another company who heard someone needed somebody, etc. Actually it often works that way: informal networking is the way humans connect the best. This is something I learned in Africa where it's the way of life, it's a lost art in our countries, were we do it reluctantly if we have no way around it.
- I'm currently working for a transport facility. Because my flat mate, not an IT person at all, works for one of their contractor, and he knows the project manager for one stuff where they needed something to be coded and he hooked us up. How ? We played laser tag 2 years ago, and so they know me and we just had diner to seal the deal. It's that stupid. And it worked. I delivered the software and they were happy.
I'm with you, but I think I see where others are coming from. I had job referrals before, and it can work. The dynamics of this are complicated, but the bottom line seems to be that networking works when it works, but not always or for everyone or in every job market. The reality is that lots of jobs get filled every day with a process very much like the one caricaturised in the piece.
Job-Worker matching as it's done today is haphazard, weird, biased... and almost certainly extremely inefficient.
But... I don't know that we have better examples matchmaking processes at scale. Do we? University selection? Dating? What's the scalable alternative?
What I'm saying is that it doesn't seem reliable or scalable. Looking at my own network, the one's I've kept up with[1], which I think is pretty average, there are only a handful of people who actually work at a company I'd one day be interested in joining. I know I would easily exhaust the whole pool in a single job search (ask me how I know this). I'm not going to rely on that. To sum up the reliability aspect: I can't foresee a point in my career when I'll ever be able to say "I can rely entirely on my network for my next job search." If you can, congratulations, that's an enviable position.
To me, networking is like that great tool in your toolbox that _really works_ when it works. I think the network approach is most appropriate as a "fallback" when you are desperate for a job, would take anything, and can literally tap everyone you know in hopes of finding _something_.
1: That's another not-so-scalable aspect of networking: Maintenance. I would never out of the blue E-mail a former colleague with "Hey, I know I haven't talked to you even once in 20 years, but, HOW'S IT GOING?!? :) I noticed you work at a company I'm interested in [...]" Awkward! You have to actually keep up with everyone like you would a friend. I've seen people who can do it well, but jeez it must be positively exhausting staying in touch like that.
You need to realize that social life and networking goes well beyond your workplace.
Yes, the connection will be far weaker than any connection with a former colleague, but sometimes all you need is an inside connection to make your resume stand out just a bit more and to be that less of an unknown.
Weak connections actually being you into vastly different networks.
I go to events and conferences because I am genuinely interested in them, I go there to listen to insightful presentations and talk to fellow programmers about interesting things, the motivation is never to "get a job later", that would be sick. The "networking effect" comes much later when you become close enough to naturally tap on them for job opportunities without feeling awkward or anything.
In other words, you don't go for conferences to find job opportunities, that's not the end, but the natural effect of knowing a lot of awesome people with the same interest as you.
Heck, I dare to go one step further to say that the purpose of a full-time job for me is just to meet more awesome programmers.
You can pick a few meetups (or even just one) to focus on, or you can be on the lookout when you meet casual acquaintances (perhaps at other social events).
I wouldn't want to spend all my social time in work hunting mode, but a small regular investment can pay dividends (depending on how happy you are in your current position).
Another reason to do such activities is the opportunity to help others. I love when I am talking to others and find out about a position that isn't a fit for me, but may be great for someone else I know. Hooking up two acquaintances in a possibly mutual beneficial way is low energy (not too much work) and yet high impact (people remember who helped them get a job).
I discovered this can be as easy as clicking"like" on a LinkedIn in post: http://www.mooreds.com/wordpress/archives/2180
It doesn't require you to risk anything to put in a referral. Maybe a referral + recommendation, but not just a referral.
Yet networking, in one form or another, is how many if not most people land their jobs. Perhaps a poll is in order here?
I suspect your definition of what constitutes "a network" is what makes the odds you calculate look like a search for extraterrestrial intelligence. It's nothing like that.
If we did a poll right here, I would wager that more people got their current position through a third party lead or inside contact than through submission to an online job application.
The actual jobs I've gotten from networking were either family connections or people I met going to raves when I was younger, or people I talk to online about tech stuff.
Let's generously assume that you meet and have excellent working relationships with 100 people at each of the 4 jobs you've had. Of those 400 people, say, conservatively, 50% think so highly of you that they'd be willing to stick their neck out help you with your next job search. Out of those 200 people, 50% are no longer working for that company. Out of those 100 people, let's optimistically assume you actively kept in touch with all of them over the years. Now, maybe 50% are working for a company where you'd actually like to apply. Out of those 50 companies, 20% actually have a job opening that fits your background. Out of those 10, maybe 2 actually know and can put you in touch with the hiring manager for that opening. And your success chance through the interview pipeline has got to be worse than 50%.
Tweak my numbers up or down a little, but I think it's a pipe dream for most workers: You have to have an enormous address book full of high-power contacts in order to end up at the end of the funnel with one or two who are both willing and able to successfully help you get a job. And once you've exhausted that network (all it takes is to blow a few interviews), then what?