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Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by startupdiscuss on Thursday March 23, 2017 @10:14AM (#13939890)
That's a very interesting and original way of looking at it.

It would also explain clustering in other areas (finance in NYC, Oil and gas in Houston etc).

Do you have any links or references exploring that idea in greater detail?

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by CPLX on Thursday March 23, 2017 @10:19AM (#13939937)
I don't mean to have this come across as snarky, at all, but really the reference for this is the whole of human history.

Wealth is basically self-concentrating. Our political systems tend to end up with a few capital (and often Capitol) cities where the spoils from the plundering, both metaphorical and literal, end up.

The original article does present some interesting and relevant examples of countervailing forces at work as well, and is insightful. But the elephant in the room, as always, is that returns to capital and rent extraction are the primary drivers of wealth, and that the winners tend to keep winning and vice versa.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by startupdiscuss on Thursday March 23, 2017 @10:34AM (#13940060)
That's not snarky, and you have a point.

But even if things seem "really obvious" and we can tell "just by looking at the facts", I feel better if someone has looked at the data and shown that to be the case.

We aren't living in the feudal era, and a lot of people like to think that the reason people move to the cities is because of (for instance) bars and restaurants, museums and the opera, high-paying jobs and so on.

This proximity to wealth may be a symptom of some third factor or it may be the driving factor.

That's why I appreciate it when smart, hard-working people take their time to figure it out for me.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by closeparen on Thursday March 23, 2017 @12:44PM (#13941438)
It takes relatively wealthy people (or at least big spenders) to make trendy upscale bars and restaurants work.

Museums, opera, symphony, most theater, etc. are kept alive by the philanthropy of the local rich.

High salaries are paid by rich VCs looking for return, or companies with more cash than they know how to handle commissioning prestige projects. (How many people at Google actually work on revenue generation? That doesn't happen at Joe's Computers in Nowheresville).

Concentrated wealth is the reason cities can have these things.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by jethro_tell on Thursday March 23, 2017 @01:40PM (#13942052)
It should be noted that the vast majority of the IT industry isn't startups. Lots of the drive of rent is not funded by VCs.
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by Mtinie on Thursday March 23, 2017 @04:01PM (#13943674)
I'd argue that what you're identifying as those businesses in the majority were at one time, startups themselves. Without the previous generation of concentrated wealth those businesses would not be in the position they are.

I do, however, also agree with your counter-point to the previous comment.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by aplomb on Friday March 24, 2017 @12:58AM (#13946714)
Prices are driven on the margins - that is the last transaction
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by andruby on Friday March 24, 2017 @04:21AM (#13947448)
If you've ever played city building games like Rome, Anno, The Settlers, Banished this will be familiar. They encoded the dynamic of number of people, increasing needs and critical mass well imho.
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by figers on Thursday March 23, 2017 @01:07PM (#13941693)
A large share of units in Boston rent to mostly college students who's parents pay the ever increasing rent. Harvard, MIT, BU, etc aren't going anywhere...
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by antisthenes on Thursday March 23, 2017 @11:00AM (#13940289)
The problem is, as often in economics, defining the terms and building a model that approximates life. It's not as trivial as a sorting algorithm or a simple 1 parameter regression.

How do you define wealth concentration, for example? If your definition is flawed, you can throw out the entire model.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by Paul-ish on Thursday March 23, 2017 @01:42PM (#13942082)
I suppose that is why people spend their entire academic career looking at these things.
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by glibgil on Thursday March 23, 2017 @11:11AM (#13940402)
> bars and restaurants, museums and the opera, high-paying jobs

And these would actually be rent seeking activities? Is that the idea?

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by startupdiscuss on Thursday March 23, 2017 @11:31AM (#13940616)
That wasn't what I was thinking of.

I was just contrasting two different types of reasons for why people cluster in those cities.

Type I, the optimistic theory

Information is more efficient and trust is better when people meet in person. Industries need to co-ordinate trust and information flow through lots of people, so they have to be in the same place. They produce a lot of value, which produces wealth and increases productivity. That wealth pays for all these great things.

This causes a happy cycle of smart and educated people being attracted to the "good" things in life coming to the cities, and providing labor for the companies and so on.

Type II, the pessimistic theory

In order to get industries going (tech startups, new Oil and gas company etc) you need capital, and the capital exists in these enormous clusters. So the people who want to fund the industry has to go to these clusters of existing capital and convince them to invest them. The returns from the success of the industry go back to the same place and so on.

The existence of the bars, restaurants and museums are compatible with both, but only have causal power in the first type of theory.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by CPLX on Thursday March 23, 2017 @11:36AM (#13940676)
It's not all that complicated. People go to where resources are.

Sometimes resources are grasslands with plentiful wild animals that you can spear and eat. Sometimes it's gems or petroleum buried underneath the rocks. And yes, resources are things like museums or pretty views or available five star restaurant meals. But the dynamic throughout human history is reasonably understandable, you can observe the same basic concept in a Petri dish.

The biggest resource of all in modern society is financial wealth. So people go to places that have it. Unlike the grassland, where new arrivals quickly deplete the available resource, in this modern scenario the result tends to be the creation of more wealth, and the cycle reinforces itself.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by acchow on Thursday March 23, 2017 @03:06PM (#13943069)
Is that a typo? Rent seeking refers to a specific kind of behavior

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent-seeking

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by glibgil on Thursday March 23, 2017 @06:00PM (#13944754)
Exactly what I meant. Bars and museums require wealth
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by acchow on Thursday March 23, 2017 @07:56PM (#13945448)
How is a bar owner rent seeking? They are providing a good and charging market prices for it. If bars in the city got together and introduced a bar-density limit within the city so as to limit the number of bars that can exist and thus allow them to raise prices, that would be rent seeking. If a bar hired a bunch of people to attend town hall meetings preventing new bars from opening up and allowing itself to raise prices - that would be rent-seeking.

If prices of drinks are going up naturally because people are making more money, "rent" for real estate is going up, etc. that is not "rent-seeking".

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by nickjarboe on Friday March 24, 2017 @01:42PM (#13950703)
Not sure if I'm missing a sarcasm tag in your comment but most places in the US restrict the number of places selling hard alcohol by having a restricted number of liquor licenses that trade on the open market like taxi medallions. In San Francisco for a restaurant this will set you back a cool 1/4 million[1] and the type 48 license you need to open a bar seem be sold so rarely in San Francisco I can't find any price reference online.

[1]http://www.mercerrestaurantgroup.com/how-to-open-a-restauran...

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by Retric on Thursday March 23, 2017 @02:48PM (#13942851)
A huge missing part of this discussion is Tech is not that concentrated in 'The Bay Area' people are. More people live in 'The Bay Area' than Maine, Montana, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming combined.

The Bay Area plus NYC metro area are 8.5% of the total US population so yes they are a significantly larger chunk of GDP and wealth. But, they are large enough that the differences are smaller than you might think.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by olalonde on Thursday March 23, 2017 @02:36PM (#13942716)
> Wealth is basically self-concentrating. Our political systems tend to end up with a few capital (and often Capitol) cities where the spoils from the plundering, both metaphorical and literal, end up.

Plundering, seriously? Isn't HN supposed to be a community of entrepreneurs?

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by CPLX on Thursday March 23, 2017 @03:11PM (#13943132)
Yes, seriously. Next time you're in London take a detour to the British Museum if you remain confused on the subject.
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by sqeaky on Thursday March 23, 2017 @02:52PM (#13942910)
We might not be the plunderers, we might just be their tools.
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by moomin on Friday March 24, 2017 @06:08AM (#13947816)
Just because we believe there are people who accrue wealth by adding value doesn't mean there aren't people who do the opposite. If you recall Atlas Shrugged, James Taggart makes an awful lot of money and can't understand why Dagny still doesn't approve.

To further complicate matters, both behaviours can be exhibited by the same person.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by protomyth on Thursday March 23, 2017 @10:35AM (#13940071)
It also provides a place with interesting signals. You could tell shale oil was going to take off when Minot ND suddenly had direct, daily flights from Houston.
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by sgron on Thursday March 23, 2017 @11:38AM (#13940703)
The reference that I posted elsewhere in this thread is pretty thorough: http://web.stanford.edu/~diamondr/jmp_final_all_files.pdf
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by ghaff on Thursday March 23, 2017 @04:05PM (#13943723)
In industrial industries like Oil & Gas, there are also a lot of advantages to having clusters of suppliers and service industries together. When I worked in the drilling business (not in Houston but in another city fairly nearby), pretty much all the overhaul, fabrication, part suppliers, etc. were all in the general area and we could visit them to review plans, oversee tests, etc.
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by jlewis7272 on Thursday March 23, 2017 @03:35PM (#13943379)
A good resource that is still in use today by many urban planners is a book called "The Death and Life of Great American Cities" by Jane Jacobs. She explores among other things the growth, decline and renewal of urban centers. Even though this was written in the 60's most of her ideas are still considered when city urban planners make decisions.
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by Spooky23 on Thursday March 23, 2017 @05:11PM (#13944335)
Remember that you have consolidation happening too!

Places like Albany, NY were regional banking centers as recently as 30 years ago. In Albany's case, that was an artifact of the city's role as a transportation hub for canals and railroads.

As the role of banking has changed and the market has consolidated from a highly distributed model, its harder and harder to do business outside of large areas. If you're a midsize business, it's hard to get lines of credit simply because nobody wants to travel to talk to you.

Even within large organizations like government and Fortune 50 companies, consolidation drives centralization. Big places used to have regional administrative services (HR, Finance, etc). You could make a career working in some regional field office.

Now, centralized functions mean that you work at HQ, a regional center, or you're a task worker in the provinces.

Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by ikeyany on Thursday March 23, 2017 @11:34AM (#13940663)
Are you serious? That's Students choose to attend "good schools" because of the networks and resources. Immigrants flock to the US because of our resources. Increasing your chances of prosperity is the reason why anyone moves anywhere (unless a family member is in need).
Re:Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever by yblu on Thursday March 23, 2017 @03:26PM (#13943281)
I first read about this connection in Paul Graham's essay "How to be Silicon Valley" [1]

[1]: http://www.paulgraham.com/siliconvalley.html