But consider that future Tesla will probably be owning/running a service like Uber. Add to that grid storage, solar power installation (from which it makes interest on loans to the consumer), powerwalls, battery production for other industries (including possibly every other car manufacturer), and whatever else Tesla branches out into once those markets are established.

Excessive vertical integration is over-valued, unless you holds a monopoly position in at least one of the component of the vertical.

They're going to own about half of the world's battery production capacity at ~30% reduction in cost per kwh over current production. Plus they're planning three more factories.

Selling core tech to other car companies seems like a lucrative long term move.

How would it do that? And why are self-driving cars a separate category when it comes to battery suppliers?

> They're going to own about half of the world's battery production capacity

There should be about 200 GWh of worldwide production capacity by the time GF1 is fully ramped up. That means they'll have about 17% of it, not half. BYD alone will match that. So will Foxconn and Boston Power. Then there's LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, etc.

These names have committed over $20 billion to additional battery factories over the next 2-3 years, many of which have already broken ground. They're also largely ahead of Tesla's position in the battery business already, are better capitalized, and have no intention of dropping out of the market rather than expanding to meet the expected future demand.

It's easy to get roped in by Tesla's press releases and marketing materials, where they do things like compare the GF's expected production rate at the end of 2018 to worldwide production numbers from 2013. The rest of the market isn't standing still.

I don't think that's going to happen. It might happen on some roads, in order to reduce congestion or whatever, but there's no reason to ban human drivers in general.

That's because "autopilots" can run in passive/safety mode, ready to take over and prevent you doing anything really stupid. This is already starting to happen, in fact, with AEB to be installed in all new cars by 2022.