If it's a well known application I will go out of my way and buy it outside the store if that's the only way to get it. But for some random app that I just found I have to wonder if it's worth getting it from outside the store (and frequently the answer is no). I need to a) give my credit card to a random website that will probably get hacked in the next 12 months, b) start getting unsolicited email campaigns in about 18 months when someone hires a growth hacker, c) remember how to install the damn thing when I upgrade my laptop, d) deal with the reduced security guarantees of an app that did not go through the Apple review process and is not subject to the sandboxing of the App Store.

For many apps where I wouldn't mind spending $10 to $20 in the App Store, I am probably not going to deal with all of the above to buy it directly from the developer.

I suspect you are a tiny minority though and that the cut the app store takes doesn't make up for losing a few folks like yourself.

However, I have no data to back up that claim, so I could very well be wrong.

I personally don't feel like you do because I use burner cards and emails to solve the hacking and spamming problems, and apps still have to be sandboxed unless you turn off that safeguard explicitly for the app.

Parent might be a tiny minority, but if so I'm right there with him.

> give my credit card to a random website that will probably get hacked in the next 12 months

Pretty much everyone takes PayPal which shields you from this

Or uses stripe which hides your real card number from the merchant. The annoyance of adding a card is one thing but fear of an app developer getting hacked and exposing your card doesn't strike me as a very strong reason.

they shouldnt be storing it anyways. thats not PCI compliant.

Dev logic, not how most of us are thinking

As an app developer, most users also seem to think developers are to blame for issues like the App Store failing to download apps, double-billing etc, so I don't think buying though Apple makes much of a difference there.

That's flawed logic. Your users are telling you they can't tell apart merchant/platform so you should build on top of that and assume they won't know that you're not PayPal

Wait a sec – consumer benefits absolutely affect the developer, because they affect whether or not the consumer buys the developer's app!

It's not necessarily a dealmaker or breaker; but if someone really cares about that and the market has many substitutes, it could be enough to sway them towards App Store purchase.

But that's my point. I think there is only a tiny number of people for whom that particular consumer benefit is a make or break deal.

Perhaps for now. I expect this to shift just as we saw mobile apps shift. Slowly at first then a mass migration of users towards the new model.

Example: Steam

I just don't think any implementation has really been that great yet. However as I think about Steam, it's rare I even consider a game I can't install via it - mostly due to it being an easy way to "back up" my games for later availability. That and they keep things up to date so it more or less Just Works.

The Mac App Store is now a full 5 years old. If 5 years in developers abandoning it see their revenue go up, that looks a lot more like persistent stagnation and decline for the store.

Mobile app stores post-iPhone just took off. There was no 'slowly at first' phase, in the sense that they had an uncertain future. They went gang busters from the start. But we're past theorising about how the first 5 years of the Mac App Store might go. They've gone. It really doesn't look good and I don't see any signs it might improve any time soon. A few people appreciate the convenience, but as this case study shows it's not enough to make an economic difference to developers. Steam killed it, but the Mac App Store is completely stalled.

It's a developer benefit if consumers feel averse to buying software that they can't re-download/update from a centralized software store (App Store, Steam, etc).

Right but that is my point. I don't think anyone would be averse to buying an app outside the app store just because it doesn't have that feature.

That could explain why someone chooses to buy it in the store if it is available both on and off the app store, but it's unlikely that there is many (any?) people out there who refuse to install an app that isn't in the app store.

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. It's not about refusal. It's not (primarily) a red line where crossing the line means you get no sales at all from the X% of people that care. It just incrementally raises the bar that customers' varying levels of desire/motivation to buy the app have to clear before they decide to go ahead. There are many other factors that probably have a greater influence on that bar, including price, convenience of the purchasing process, perceived quality of the product, etc. But that doesn't mean smaller factors don't matter at all. To get a sense of how much they matter, you'd have to measure it, but I doubt that things like license management convenience are completely irrelevant.