Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are immune from AI, etc?

Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by vegabook on Monday January 02, 2017 @05:59AM (#13300427)

The difference is that chess, go, etc are all essentially rules based. Finance has very few rules that do not break over time. Just look at QE. Arguably the financial market represents the collective intelligence of a huge amount of very clever people. Machines are only just starting to challenge a single human at a rules-based activity. We're very far from beating a brutally darwinian, impressively adaptive, human hive-mind whose main skill is figuring out when rules are about to get broken.

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by dougabug on Monday January 02, 2017 @06:35AM (#13300561)

What are the rules for image / video captioning? For natural sounding speech synthesis? For realistic image generation? For semantic segmentation? For determining perceptual visual similarity between images?

Frankly, rules based AI is basically a bust compared to learning from data approaches.

The hive was pretty amazing at destabilizing the entire global economy within a brief span following fundamental financial de-regulation.

People flatter themselves in ways which satisfies their egos and self-interest. Of course they want to believe in, and have everyone else credit, their magical superpowers. No government (backstop) wires necessary.

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by dilemma on Monday January 02, 2017 @07:21AM (#13300738)

Automatic image and video captioning is in a very sorry state. Machines can't do it.

Machine learning is rule based. The difference is just that it creates many more rules for more and more granular cases. But it will never be intelligent, it will always be a dumb digital bureaucrat.

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by yjftsjthsd-h on Monday January 02, 2017 @07:42AM (#13300834)

Given results from ex. neural networks, ML "rules" appear to be granular and flexible enough that I'm not sure they usefully count as being rules anymore.

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by pyrale on Monday January 02, 2017 @08:11AM (#13300950)

There are rules in that you're able to create an exhaustive labeled training dataset. The rules may not be generic, but they exist through a specification by example.

Beating a human when there is no discoverability to the problem, and when building an exhaustive dataset is a problem in itself is not on the horizon yet.

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by webmaven on Monday January 02, 2017 @09:45AM (#13301355)

> Automatic image and video captioning is in a very sorry state. Machines can't do it.

You may have missed various dramatic improvements over the past year:

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=2016&q=%22image+ca...

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by dilemma on Monday January 02, 2017 @10:05AM (#13301478)

Definitely haven't. Where is captioning applied with human like accuracy?

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by webmaven on Monday January 02, 2017 @10:19AM (#13301567)

Hmm. I suggest that recent SOTA results contradict your contention that the field is in "a very sorry state" and you up the standard to "human like accuracy". Feels like the goalposts are being moved.

Anyway, this paper demonstrates some impressive results:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1611.06607v1.pdf

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by vegabook on Tuesday January 03, 2017 @09:22AM (#13309275)

arguably the "crisis" was a perfectly rational response to inputs, namely, people no longer being able to service their debts.

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by cm2187 on Monday January 02, 2017 @06:04AM (#13300443)

Interest rates cannot go negative was a commonly accepted rule at the beginning of my career (and interest rate option traders where using models that did not allow for negative interest rates).

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by snakeworld on Monday January 02, 2017 @06:34AM (#13300559)

QE?

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by melling on Monday January 02, 2017 @10:26AM (#13301605)

Here's my first result from Google:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

Google is getting really good.

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Re:Why do traders in investment banks feel their jobs are im... by timthorn on Monday January 02, 2017 @06:40AM (#13300576)

Quantitative Easing

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