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Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by antr on Sunday December 11, 2016 @04:22AM (#13150299)
In early 2016 I purchased commercial real estate, got a 25 year fixed rate mortgage, and leased it. This requires very little of my time every month, and the post-tax yield is above 5%. I couldn't be happier.

I'm now considering doing this again in 2017. Hopefully interest rates will remain as low as they have been in order to lock-in an attractive mortgage.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by PaulRobinson on Sunday December 11, 2016 @05:19AM (#13150436)
You don't say where you are based, but you are going to get a shock if you think interest rates are going to stay on the floor. If you can get a genuine 25-year fixed rate, great, but you need to tread carefully here.

Brexit, Trump, EU sentiment, China trying to deal with their own problems, they're all pointing to the same way: devalued currencies. Where they start, rising interest start to follow.

I'd also be wary of assuming commercial real estate was a lock-in. I've heard horror stories.

I'm glad it's working for you right now, I'm just saying: make sure you tread carefully and have done your research before you start gearing up.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by antr on Sunday December 11, 2016 @07:40AM (#13150824)
The all-in fixed rate is 2.10%, and let me repeat: fixed. Not LIBOR + spread + you need to have you savings account with us + you need to buy my home insurance, etc.

I don't understand why you say "tread carefully"... when it's the bank bearing all the IRS cost. Plot any LIBOR curve, and you'll see that the bank is the one to lose here. Banks are fighting for customers, and cheap loans and mortgages is the game they are playing. I could go into more detail, but given that I have a 12 month DSRA account in place, I'm quite happy with the investment.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by cylinder on Sunday December 11, 2016 @04:41PM (#13153474)
I don't believe we'll see high rates in our lifetimes. The broad trends in developed countries are all deflationary.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by brianwawok on Sunday December 11, 2016 @09:22AM (#13151165)
Don't you lose if you can't find Tennant's for your property? Or do you plan to just go bankrupt if that happens?
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by antr on Sunday December 11, 2016 @11:17AM (#13151666)

  > but given that I have a 12 month DSRA account in place, I'm quite happy with the investment.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by brandon272 on Sunday December 11, 2016 @06:46PM (#13154284)
What happens if you can't find tenants for 12+ months? I've seen many commercial properties sit barely occupied for years.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by antr on Monday December 12, 2016 @01:45AM (#13156139)
Worst case scenario, pay the mortgage with my salary.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by brianwawok on Monday December 12, 2016 @08:01AM (#13157717)
So that seems a pretty risky investment to me. Only a few percent profit for the risk of eating a giant monthly bill.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by antr on Monday December 12, 2016 @10:19AM (#13158609)
"Risky" investment for commercial real estate in a tier I area in a European capital? I find any residential property more risky and volatile, at least from a price elasticity point of view.

I guess we have different views on how we perceive risk. But that is ok.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by brianwawok on Monday December 12, 2016 @03:34PM (#13161662)
I am not saying commercial is more risky than residential. I am saying for the low gain, I would not take that kind of risk (i.e. more than near 0)
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by lowpro on Sunday December 11, 2016 @05:25AM (#13150454)
This isn't necessarily true. The US dollar is actually increasing in value as people want their money to be safe. If Trump does bring back American jobs, meaning less jobs in Asia, the dollar buy will continue, depressing Asia and strengthening the US for now.

But you're right, the OP definitely needs to tread lightly with property and the contracts. The devil is always in the details.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by threeseed on Sunday December 11, 2016 @05:53AM (#13150522)
The unemployment rate in the US is 4.9% which is basically full employment.

Now sure there are a number of people who don't report and those who wish to work more. But I don't think it's going to be easy to get those people back into work. Most are either in industries that are disappearing due to automation. Or they lack the skills/training to re-educate themselves.

And without tariffs (which will impact exports) there is little chance of US being all that competitive in most industries that compete with Asia (I assume you actually mean China).

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by bb611 on Sunday December 11, 2016 @10:26AM (#13151419)
Unemployment is only 4.9% because the participation rate dropped 3% points in the last 10 years: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

That's close to 10 million people who have stopped looking for jobs who we would otherwise expect to have them.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by berdario on Sunday December 11, 2016 @01:59PM (#13152504)
But the participation rate can float for a few different reasons

http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-th...

(clickbaity headline, but the contents seem sound)

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by krakensden on Sunday December 11, 2016 @01:23PM (#13152299)
Baby Boomers should be leaving the labor market though.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by icebraining on Monday December 12, 2016 @01:32AM (#13156087)
It's not just old people: "in 2000, if you happened to be a 20-year-old man with less than a Bachelor's Degree--and when I say 20-year old, I mean in their 20s--21 to 30. About 8% reported not working at all during the prior year. That number, today: About 18%."

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/11/erik_hurst_on_w.htm...

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by FrancoDiaz on Sunday December 11, 2016 @07:47AM (#13150843)
4.9% isn't even close to being the real unemployment rate.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by StevePerkins on Sunday December 11, 2016 @09:17AM (#13151149)
Nor does it reflect the stagnant/decreasing income of the jobs that people DO have.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by enraged_camel on Sunday December 11, 2016 @01:32PM (#13152354)
Not to mention hordes of underemployed college grads.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by 551199 on Sunday December 11, 2016 @08:00AM (#13150883)
You want to look into participation rate. Compare participation and unemployment rate over time and it's clear '4.9%' is pure fallacy.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by bigboris on Friday December 16, 2016 @02:00PM (#13195758)
Roughly 100 million people in the US are out of work or no longer looking for work. That's approx a third of the population. "4.9% is basically full employment" is a terribly naive statement. The trend clearly shows things getting worse, not better.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=4CRu

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by sean_patel on Sunday December 11, 2016 @03:14PM (#13152923)
> In early 2016 I purchased commercial real estate, got a 25 year fixed rate mortgage, and leased it.

What was your downpayment? Asking because I tried to do the same thing earlier this year. Thought I was clever, did the math on how much I can rent out an apt on AirBnB, and what the mortgage would be on 30 year fixed, and my calcs said I need to put only 5% down to break-even. Then I contact lender and turns out, for Investment properties, they require minimum of 25% to 35% cash as downpayment. They said this was to hedge their risks against a borrower who would bail easily if an investment property goes south.

Any way around this? i.e. around not having to put 25% down on investment RE?

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by tomcam on Monday December 12, 2016 @04:12AM (#13156733)
No. Because the lender knows your AirBnB investments could easily be regulated out of existence. I suggest you live super frugally and save up cash for your real estate purchases. (We did this and so have many of our friend.)
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by sean_patel on Monday December 12, 2016 @10:52PM (#13164290)
Thanks tomcam (cool username btw :)
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by chipperyman573 on Sunday December 11, 2016 @04:28AM (#13150313)
As the property owner, aren't you responsible for maintenance etc?
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by kornholi on Sunday December 11, 2016 @04:39AM (#13150350)
In the commercial world, NNN (triple net) leases are popular. The tenants take care of property taxes, insurance, and maintenance, so it is a good passive investment since you don't have to worry about operating expenses.
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by antr on Sunday December 11, 2016 @04:35AM (#13150337)
Contractually, day-to-day maintenance, no. Any extraordinary maintenance (a water pipeline bursts, electrical problems, etc), yes; but that would be covered and taken care of by the insurance company.
[dead]
Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by antr on Sunday December 11, 2016 @11:17AM (#13151670)
because... I haven't worked hard and saved money?

or, like you are implying, I shouldn't have saved any money, and spent it all... fancy cars, exotic vacations, and parties. I guess I gave up one lifestyle to reach another one. We all have different priorities.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by branchless on Sunday December 11, 2016 @01:45PM (#13152417)
I don't believe land is taxed highly enough so the system encourages monopolising land to appropriate value added by labour that should be going to workers.

I think right now we have a situation were money makes money and selling your labour doesn't, in the average case not in the "I'm a senior engineer at google" case.

I just don't see how this ends well. Workers struggling to get wage rises at all and yet 5% per anum return for those with capital. We've just had Trump and yet here everyone is basically saying "I can get further ahead by playing the system".

It's not looking good.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by antr on Sunday December 11, 2016 @02:59PM (#13152831)
Relax, you are mixing apples and oranges.

Many companies, large multinationals to small startups don't want to OWN property. It's capital intensive for them, they want to rent. Does Starbucks own its coffee shops? No. Can't you see how renting property is a service to many?

Stop being apocalyptic simply because someone owns property. Take a chill pill.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by branchless on Sunday December 11, 2016 @09:04PM (#13154976)
I think this is a huge problem. I think that is illustrated by the fact that you feel you can make well ahead of wage rises without any risk. The financialisation of land is driving a wedge between those with capital and those without.

We've just had Trump because some people are feeling very left behind. I'm not saying you caused Trump, but I think the system that incorporates rent seeking through land is a big part of it.

Land prices are all consuming, they are taking wages from workers and then rent from net wages of workers. The system as it stands is very efficient at adjusting credit to soak up any gains into banking and land speculators.

Re:Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2016? by jdcarluccio on Sunday December 11, 2016 @07:16PM (#13154446)
You should offer chill pills as part of the property deal. :) like your style