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Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by acchow on Thursday December 01, 2016 @05:24PM (#13084128)
"Because of the very small fusion reaction probability (the fusion cross section is ~0.3–0.6 pb or (3–6)×10−41 m2) the experiment took four months and involved a beam dose of 4×1019 calcium ions that had to be shot at the californium target to produce the first recorded event believed to be the synthesis of oganesson.[9] Nevertheless, researchers are highly confident that the results are not a false positive, since the chance that the detections were random events was estimated to be less than one part in 100000."

Wow.

Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by mathattack on Thursday December 01, 2016 @07:10PM (#13084854)
When social sciences try to use the mathematical tools of physical sciences, I wish they would use the same measure of statistical significance: "the chance that the detections were random events was estimated to be less than one part in 100000"
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by will_pseudonym on Thursday December 01, 2016 @07:51PM (#13085062)
I think that the larger problem with social science is that they conduct experiments under extremely specific conditions and then attempt to generalize to populations where those same conditions aren't present at all. And I'm not talking about the media's interpretation and broadcast of the findings. I'm talking about the papers themselves.
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by Ntrails on Friday December 02, 2016 @04:59AM (#13087416)
It's also pretty hard/expensive to get 10000 people involved in a long term experiment. So they tend to get tens of people and extrapolate from there.

I don't think it's that they're lazy or incompetent - it's just hard to have the sort of scale required for the levels of certainty you can get from firing a bazillion calcium ions at something for months.

Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by mathattack on Friday December 02, 2016 @09:37AM (#13088806)
You can get "1 in 10000" significance without 10000 people. (How many Tails in a row would you need to flip a coin to believe it's not random at that level? Somewhere between 13 and 20?)

Also, many datasets (think financial data or census data) are much bigger.

Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by jdavis703 on Friday December 02, 2016 @07:29AM (#13088042)
Why can't they do fewer studies but with larger sizes then? Do you then run into a problem of idled researchers?
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by mathattack on Friday December 02, 2016 @12:48PM (#13090682)
This is the modern physics model. The major discoveries and papers have 100s of authors attached to them. The soft sciences tend to have lots more smaller studies and papers.

The damage is that there isn't an "Accepted body of knowledge" that everyone knows to be true. Perhaps this isn't even possible.

Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by nonbel on Friday December 02, 2016 @08:30AM (#13088358)
There is a sick culture that thinks being the "idea person" is the most important part of research, and that "idea people" should be in charge of implementing their ideas. A lot of issues stem from that.
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by nonbel on Thursday December 01, 2016 @07:54PM (#13085075)
Well, the wikipedia source appears broken so I can't be sure but I bet that is a p-value. In that case it is wrong.

The chance (probability) of an observation arising from random events is not the same as the chance (probability) random events explain the observation. In the first case (which is usual) you are assuming the random event model is true.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Confusion_of_the_inverse

Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by djsumdog on Thursday December 01, 2016 @07:56PM (#13085083)
You can't sequester humans in a cage for 50 years, controlling everything except the variable you want to study.

Maybe if we could create a parallel universe at a specific point, and have one side try one thing and the other side do another, but there are huge ethical concerns from that as well.

Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by nerfhammer on Thursday December 01, 2016 @08:31PM (#13085243)
If you posit that 50% of people like X, you survey 21 people and find that 0 like X, then the odds that you would get that result due to random sampling error assuming the original hypothesis were true is 1 in 2097152
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by danielvf on Thursday December 01, 2016 @09:20PM (#13085437)
However that doesn't take into account correlated sampling error. If you randomly sample college social science majors at a single school, you could easily get results like that, even if the rest of the population is actually split on the matter.
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by dismantlethesun on Thursday December 01, 2016 @09:41PM (#13085519)
That's true, but that's also not a random sampling so doesn't really detract from what the above poster is saying.

Most social science experiments do not initially handle random samples.

The famous ones like the Milgram experiments and others conducted by the same researcher do. If I have my facts correct, he used to mail out letters to people randomly chosen from the phonebook to ask them to participate in his study, then travel to their locales to study them. The Milgram experiment itself was redone multiple times, using different population segments---students, random people in the city, all women, all men, etc.

As an anecdote of how poorly correlated a social experiment can be to real life---in my university, econ & social science students were required to take at least 10 experiments per semester. Often we would go there, realize the material tested was identical to what we had studied in class then behave like 'rational market actors' in order to get the best result (econ experiments used small sums of real money, so you'd be paid at the end based on performance). This isn't anything like how a random person would have behaved.

Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by jdavis703 on Friday December 02, 2016 @07:34AM (#13088074)
And I always behaved as an irrational market actor, because hey we exist in the real world too. I know in some of my finances I don't behave as a model would predict, for instance investing in companies that are doing something that is ethically interesting to me, despite the financials. Or doing the inverse if a company seems to be doing something wrong, even if it's perfectly legal and increasing the share price.
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by i__believe on Friday December 02, 2016 @12:44AM (#13086343)
Question: how does one go about finding that number?
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by AimHere on Friday December 02, 2016 @05:21AM (#13087500)
The commenter just described the probability of tossing a coin 21 times and all cointosses being heads, so (1/2)^21, or 1 in 2^21.

It's a specific case of the cumulative binomial distribution which is what you might look up if you want to know about the case where the probability of people liking X in general isn't 50% but something else, or the number of samples isn't 21, or the number of sampled people liking X isn't 0.

Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by schoen on Thursday December 01, 2016 @07:47PM (#13085043)
It does make their results seem unconvincing in comparison... but can you supply them with 4×10¹⁹ research subjects to experiment on?
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by vacri on Thursday December 01, 2016 @08:06PM (#13085138)
When the social sciences do experiments as useless as this one - spending four months to get one atom for one millisecond - they get roasted for wasting money.
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by nerdponx on Thursday December 01, 2016 @05:27PM (#13084161)
I wonder how much it cost to make that atom
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by kakarot on Thursday December 01, 2016 @06:16PM (#13084545)
Atomic scientists get excited over the littlest things...
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by mathattack on Thursday December 01, 2016 @07:10PM (#13084856)
On a per pound basis?
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by acchow on Thursday December 01, 2016 @07:21PM (#13084925)
I don't think we could produce a pound of this (that exists contemporaneously)
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by djsumdog on Thursday December 01, 2016 @07:58PM (#13085099)
pounds? Come on, we're scientists and engineers here (well some of us). Grams .. or in this case, nanograms or picograms .. possibly attograms.
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by semi-extrinsic on Friday December 02, 2016 @11:36AM (#13089999)
A single oganesson atom weighs 294 u, or 0.488 zeptograms. That's 0.000488 attograms.
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by mathattack on Friday December 02, 2016 @12:48PM (#13090689)
ok, I'll settle for a metric ton!
Re:Four New Names Officially Added to the Periodic Table of ... by nerdponx on Friday December 02, 2016 @08:33AM (#13088382)
More like "per atom" since they only made one atom.