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Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by tanderson92 on Monday November 14, 2016 @11:29AM (#12950875)
The Democratic candidate came in 3rd place with only 19%. I believe that makes the Democrats the "spoiler" in that election. To not recognize it as such is to prop up the 2-party system.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by Ph0X on Monday November 14, 2016 @01:04PM (#12951816)
While that may be true, either of the two could've been the actual winner if real ranked voting was used.

People usually flock to the candidate who has the best mix of "likely to win" and "shares my values". Preferably, only the latter should count.

It's also important to note that First-Past-The-Vote forces candidates to try to differentiate themselves as much as possible from each other, and that also includes popular 3rd parties. They will say more extreme things that they often don't really believe in. So that too would skew the results.

All in all, ranked voting will completely change how the whole process happens.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by mtgx on Monday November 14, 2016 @05:43PM (#12954044)
Yes, I fully believe the FPTP voting system is what has led to the incredibly toxic and extremely partisan political system in the US, to the detriment of all logic. It has created an extreme "us vs them" situation.

Studies also show a correlation (and possibly causation) between FPTP countries and income inequality. Whatever "benefits" FPTP may have, they pale in comparison to all the disadvantages.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by will_hughes on Monday November 14, 2016 @08:15PM (#12954846)
> PTP voting system is what has led to the incredibly toxic and extremely partisan political system in the US

Perhaps, but Australia uses Instant-Runoff Voting [1], and we are also following the toxic partisan Us vs Them situation too.

I suspect there's more than one factor at play here.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by redcap on Monday November 14, 2016 @09:35PM (#12955170)
While the Liberals (conversatives in Australia) have the lower house, they don't have the majority in the upper house, making it more of a house of review than a rubber stamp.

The PM is elected by the parliament, and often disposed of when they're seen as not doing the job. More turmoil, but avoids a lame duck at the top.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by will_hughes on Monday November 14, 2016 @11:30PM (#12955583)
Perhaps, but I'm talking more about that voting methods are not necessarily to blame for the levels of partisanship in US politics.

There have been a lot of eerie similarities in Australian politics in terms of partisanship.

Turnbull was ousted from his first turn at Liberal Party leadership precisely because he was seen as 'cooperating' with the Labor government at the time, when he was willing to negotiate and compromise on certain positions.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by lambertsimnel on Monday November 14, 2016 @06:27PM (#12954296)
By "either of the two" do you mean the Democrat and the independent? It looks to me like (assuming voters voted for the candidates that would have got their first preferences under RCV) the Democrat could not have won under RCV in 2010 and the independent could not have won under RCV in 2014.

RCV should be used for gubernatorial elections, to address vote splitting but in the last two such elections in Maine, the candidate placed third on first preferences could not have won under RCV.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by _samihasan_ on Monday November 14, 2016 @02:34PM (#12952544)
I'm wondering why doesn't the US implement a system like "Two-round system" as a part of electoral reforms because as I see it the current system in place is not fair for the electorate or even the candidates themselves.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by koenigdavidmj on Monday November 14, 2016 @02:54PM (#12952685)
Washington kind of has this for federal offices (other than president) and state offices. The top two winners of the primary make it to the final election, regardless of party affiliation. We had one state race between a Democrat and a Libertarian, and my congressional district had a choice between two Democrats (though one was 'normal' and the other was a self-proclaimed socialist).
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by sidlls on Monday November 14, 2016 @02:54PM (#12952687)
For basically all offices but POTUS that's what California effectively has. Except it is implemented badly as a "top-two primary" system. This virtually guarantees that most partisan elections will exclude anyone outside the two biggest parties. It is not very healthy.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by labster on Monday November 14, 2016 @03:01PM (#12952748)
Or outside the one biggest party. Jerry Brown recently vetoed an STV elections bill, calling it "too confusing for voters". Having met some actual voters, I'm growing more inclined to agree with him, but STV has worked very well in my university's elections for more than a decade.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by bdamm on Monday November 14, 2016 @05:16PM (#12953866)
I don't much like STV either; not because it isn't fair, but because it's almost impossible to do without using computers.

We need to keep computers out of elections.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by tacostakohashi on Monday November 14, 2016 @07:24PM (#12954601)
STV has been around since the 19th century, and in use in Australia and Ireland since 1918 and 1921 respectively. At no point have computers been involved.

Although it is simple to perform manually, the iterative nature of counting the votes, eliminating the least popular candidate and distributing their preferences can add extra time to arrive at a result in a tight race. In general, though, the margin between candidates and preference flows are predictable enough that it's rarely significant.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by nitrogen on Tuesday November 15, 2016 @01:47AM (#12956127)
Doesn't STV have the problem of nonmonotonicity, where gaining votes can make a candidate lose?
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by labster on Monday November 14, 2016 @07:34PM (#12954654)
The algorithm to run an STV election is not that hard to implement. If the government is willing to release the ballot files, then there's no reason that you couldn't conduct your own count. But let's not pretend that we could do massive amounts of tallying without any kind of computer.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by caf on Monday November 14, 2016 @09:03PM (#12955056)
If anyone wants to try their hand at implementing the count for a multi-member electorate by PR-STV, the 'formal preferences' files for the Australian 2016 Federal Senate Elections are available here: http://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-... (scroll down to "Formal Preferences").

Single-member STV elections are considerably simpler to count.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by lambertsimnel on Monday November 14, 2016 @05:59PM (#12954137)
There's no need to use computers to conduct an STV count. The single-winner variant (variously called "Instant Runoff Voting" "Majority-Preferential Voting", etc.) is especially easy to count by hand. Counting votes in a proportional election under STV is slightly complicated by the transferring of surplus votes, but it can still be done by hand.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by mtgx on Monday November 14, 2016 @05:48PM (#12954069)
Two-round system would be an improvement as well to the FPTP system. It would also fix the spoiler effect and the lack of majority support for winner problems. It's also simpler than RCV.

However, I don't think it reduces negative campaigns like RCV does (though it might improve on the "blue or red" campaigns that exist with FPTP). Another objective may be that the election "costs too much" (basically double or more), although I don't think this is a real objective. Democracy costs money. Deal with it. But I could see the objection gaining traction with some politicians, for the same reason the removal of voting polls gained traction in states with budget deficits.

I'd be content with either RCV or two-round system.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by dragonwriter on Tuesday November 15, 2016 @02:25AM (#12956266)
California actually now has a two round system for many legislative (state and federal) and other elections, with the "primary" being the open-field first round and the "general election" being the final vote between the top two.

I've seen lots of complaints that it "eliminates choice", because you have elections where the "general election" options are both Democrats (most notably, this year's U.S. Senate race.)

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by lambertsimnel on Monday November 14, 2016 @06:06PM (#12954187)
RCV is better than the Two-Round system, which is an expensive and time-consuming way of doing Supplementary Vote. Supplementary Vote is a system we use in the UK to elect mayors and Police & Crime Commissioners, and is a form of RCV in which voters are limited to only two preferences.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by ClayShentrup on Tuesday November 15, 2016 @02:12AM (#12956216)
Not certain. http://scorevoting.net/Honest Runoff.html
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by lambertsimnel on Tuesday November 15, 2016 @05:17AM (#12956909)
The address should be http://scorevoting.net/HonestRunoff.html (without the space)

Perhaps not certain, and I do agree that there's far more to be gained by replacing plurality voting by either, but I think that page has some mistakes.

> IRV leads to stifling 2-party domination

I suspect that's because of poor voter information. You can't address every political problem effectively with a choice of voting system.

> with IRV, that one round is more complicated and it cannot be done on ordinary "dumb totalizing" voting machines ... > IRV is more complicated for both voters and talliers.

I find IRV simpler as a voter because of the reduced need for tactical voting in the first round.

IRV isn't complicated to count by hand. (In my country, vested interests said we couldn't afford the necessary voting machines, but we already conduct hand counts suitable for IRV.) You simply separate the ballot papers by candidate and count each candidate's vote, as we do under plurality voting. If no candidate has a majority, eliminate the last candidate, redistribute that candidate's votes to the highest ranked candidate (as marked on each ballot paper) still in the race, count only the redistributed votes and add them to the total from the previous round. Keep going until a candidate has a majority.

> we certainly cannot argue that one system is better than the other under all circumstances.

You have to choose an electoral system before you can know the exact circumstances of an election, but the he main thing is to avoid plurality voting.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by egypturnash on Monday November 14, 2016 @08:21PM (#12954867)
A big part of the problem is that the people who are going to approve changing the election system are also often the people who are elected due to the flaws in this system, and would like to hang onto the power these positions give them.

It's as if if the power to accept patches on an OS belonged to people who were profiting from a bunch of zero-day exploits in it, and kept on DMCAing attempts to set up a new repo free of their influence.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by _greim_ on Monday November 14, 2016 @09:06PM (#12955066)
But there also hasn't been (as far as I can tell) a significant popular outcry against plurality voting. It seems unfair to blame politicians for resisting a movement that doesn't exist.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by nitrogen on Tuesday November 15, 2016 @01:45AM (#12956121)
There's a chicken-and-egg problem there -- most people don't know there could be any other way to vote.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by scythe on Monday November 14, 2016 @03:36PM (#12953097)
Two-round systems are actually quite gameable in their naive form.

One version I rather like is a Condorcet election with an optional runoff inside the Smith set, if nontrivial

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by lambertsimnel on Monday November 14, 2016 @06:13PM (#12954225)
I agree about the current system, but not about the Two-Round system. It would be more efficient for voters to go to the polls once and choose a first and second preference. Voters could be allowed as many preferences as candidates, which is what RCV does.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by bshanks on Monday November 14, 2016 @07:46PM (#12954724)
As long as the same ballot will be used not just for the runoff but also for the initial election, people have an incentive not to write down their true preferences (this is implied by the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibbard%E2%80%93Satterthwaite_... (approximately) which says that as long as there are >2 candidates, tactical voting is incentivized).

The advantage of actually going to the polls twice is that you eliminate tactical voting in the final runoff; people no longer have any incentive to lie about their preferences.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by notahacker on Monday November 14, 2016 @08:02PM (#12954796)
You get to honestly veto the candidate you dislike the most (or back the candidate you want if s/he actually makes the final ballot) in the runoff.

But if anything, the first vote becomes even more tactical potentially in bizarre ways such as aiming to ensure that a candidate sure to make the final ballot runs against the most odious fringe candidate on the final ballot.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by bshanks on Monday November 14, 2016 @10:04PM (#12955289)
Maybe, but I get the impression that overall the addition of a true runoff tends to make things better. For example, this guy compared a number of voting methods using his preferred metric, Bayesian regret; note that when a method and a variant with a runoff added to it are compared, the runoff tends to do slightly better: http://rangevoting.org/StratHonMix.html

In addition, I have no data for this but I expect that a runoff would increase the perception of legitimacy of an electoral result, because while the initial voting procedure that narrows the field to only 2 candidates will occasionally be impacted by counterintuitive results such as spoilers, at least the runoff can always be interpreted in a straightforward manner as "we were choosing between A and B, and most voters preferred A over B".

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by lambertsimnel on Tuesday November 15, 2016 @03:06AM (#12956398)
> Maybe, but I get the impression that overall the addition of a true runoff tends to make things better. For example, this guy compared a number of voting methods using his preferred metric, Bayesian regret; note that when a method and a variant with a runoff added to it are compared, the runoff tends to do slightly better

I suspect that result is caused by voters being misinformed about how IRV works. It would be interesting to see IRV compared to Exhaustive Ballot, which is like the Two-Round system, but with up to n-1 rounds for n candidates. The last-placed candidate is eliminated each round until there are a majority of votes for one candidate, just like IRV.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by caf on Monday November 14, 2016 @08:51PM (#12954988)
In practice it rather works the other way: the fact that your ballot will also be used for the final runoff reduces the incentive to tactically vote, because there's a greater chance your vote will backfire.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by veidr on Monday November 14, 2016 @12:08PM (#12951291)
Sure, the Democrat was the spoiler there. But your characterization of kevlar1818's comment doesn't make sense.

Advocating RCV is the exact opposite of propping up the two party system. And the terminology itself is neutral -- it's only because the American democracy has suffered under (or, as some would now say, outright failed due to) the two party system that you associate "the spoiler effect" with a third party candidate.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by tanderson92 on Monday November 14, 2016 @12:10PM (#12951314)
No, my characterization did make sense because at the time I commented (kevlar1818 has since edited -- read the whole thread), kevlar1818 explicitly blamed an independent candidate for splitting the Democrats' votes, as if they owned them.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by kevlar1818 on Monday November 14, 2016 @02:43PM (#12952604)
Once again, any blame was not intentional. I don't know why you are insisting that I'm an opponent of third parties in elections.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by kevlar1818 on Monday November 14, 2016 @11:39AM (#12950982)
Fair enough, but I think you're kind of splitting hairs. You're referring to the 2010 election, I think. The 2014 election has the Democratic candidate take ~43% if I'm correct.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by tanderson92 on Monday November 14, 2016 @11:47AM (#12951061)
How is it splitting hairs to correct the (implicit, through use of the phrase "The Spoiler Effect") blaming of third party candidates when it wasn't a third party candidate who was at fault whatsoever? In fact that's the central point of this ballot proposition: so that we can vote for better candidates than the Democrats are willing to put up without fear of your blame if we don't reach enough to defeat the other side.

Even worse, your post is just factually wrong. By placing the fact that a 3rd party candidate split the vote once in a sentence where you mentioned the governor failed to reach a majority twice, you conflated the two in a manner that almost looks willful.

And yes, I was referring to the 2010 election because the plurality for LePage was much less convincing then.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by ClayShentrup on Monday November 14, 2016 @12:23PM (#12951420)
I'm a co-founder of the Center for Election Science. This was the spoiler effect. It doesn't really matter which candidate was the spoiler. It matters that the wrong candidate won. We did some analysis on this election here.

http://scorevoting.net/Maine2014Exit.html

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by RobAtticus on Monday November 14, 2016 @12:31PM (#12951513)
tanderson92's point was that by implying that the independent candidate was the spoiler, it is tacitly supporting the two-party system.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by Tobani on Monday November 14, 2016 @01:07PM (#12951846)
I don't think that was the implication. The original post just said that the democrats and independents split the vote (spoiler effect). There was no implication as to which was the spoiler.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by tanderson92 on Monday November 14, 2016 @01:17PM (#12951935)
It was the implication present in the original post before it was edited to remove that implication (after much of this discussion had occurred). See: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12951169, and the edit note in the edited-edited-original post.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by pessimizer on Monday November 14, 2016 @01:26PM (#12952007)
You can't really say "spoiler effect" without implying it. A "spoiler" is a minor candidate that is substantially similar to one of the major candidates. Just because the Democratic candidate lost to the spoiler doesn't make the spoiler less of a spoiler; the Democratic candidate would have been more likely to win if they weren't there.

It's not a "spoiler effect"; maybe a split constituency is a better term. Spoiler implies that somebody has something, and someone else steps in and ruins it. These are all equal people running for the same office.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by tanderson92 on Monday November 14, 2016 @01:43PM (#12952163)
This IMO gets it completely wrong. An independent candidate who comes within 2% of a plurality and victory and performs >15% better than the Democrat does not deserve to be called a spoiler. Why does the Democrat deserve the win regardless of what voters evidently want?

If anyone is a spoiler, it must be the Democratic candidate.

Your reasoning may be well-intentioned, but it is yet more 3rd-party-blaming.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by tanderson92 on Monday November 14, 2016 @12:29PM (#12951487)
Of course it was the spoiler effect! I never claimed otherwise! I only said that if you are going to use that language then in 2010 it is clear that the Democrats were the spoilers and the independent deserves none of the blame assigned by kevlar1818 in the original wording of the post.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by kevlar1818 on Monday November 14, 2016 @11:57AM (#12951169)
Look, I agree with you. I am thrilled that RCV was voted-for by the people of Maine. It's a step away from the two-party system, and that's great.

The Spoiler Effect happened one way or another. I was not intentionally trying to bash any of the candidates who were involved in the Spoiler Effect, and I think it's petty and inflammatory to assign blame either way. I'll update my post to be more clear in this regard.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by hx87 on Monday November 14, 2016 @12:32PM (#12951520)
You're reading a lot into Kevlar1818's posts that isn't necessarily there. It's possible to blame a phenomenon (the Spoiler Effect) without blaming its players (Democrats & third party candidates).
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by kevlar1818 on Monday November 14, 2016 @02:45PM (#12952613)
In his/her defense, I edited my comment to show I did not mean to blame anyone.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by kevlar1818 on Monday November 14, 2016 @11:41AM (#12951003)
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by dcosson on Monday November 14, 2016 @05:16PM (#12953868)
We can debate all day about whether voting 3rd party under simple majority voting is taking a stand or being irresponsible (by causing a split vote and letting the worst candidate win). I think there are legitimate arguments on both sides.

The only real way to stop propping up a 2-party system is to switch to something like ranked choice voting, so good on them for doing it.

Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by r00fus on Monday November 14, 2016 @03:13PM (#12952891)
Fine. Whatever. Spoiler effect is much less of an issue with ranked voting, so good to know that Maine will be going IND (likely) next cycle unless GOP steps up their game and caters to the middle. A win for lefties in either way.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by chapium on Monday November 14, 2016 @12:09PM (#12951309)
Just an observation here, I dont think there was an implication that the independants were a spoiler. Parent implied that democrat and independent candidates were similar in ideology and therefore a spoiler effect was present.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by odonnellryan on Monday November 14, 2016 @12:20PM (#12951399)
Good news for Maine: preferential voting will really help with the two party system.
Re:Maine Ranked Choice Voting Initiative Approved by pessimizer on Monday November 14, 2016 @01:30PM (#12952047)
The two-party system doesn't need any help. Preferential voting will give people the opportunity to vote for the candidates they prefer in the order they prefer them, rather than participating in the (media-driven) Keynesian beauty contest that the institutional parties force us into.