Re:Is This Economist Too Far Ahead of His Time?
by davidgerard on Friday October 21, 2016 @09:26AM
(#12760192)
Yes, I know where Bayesian epistemologists get their numbers.
The danger is that they then announce these numbers as if they have any real-world basis, and that they are taken as making a claim about objective reality.
There's no evidence I know that pulling a number out of your backside and running it through Bayes' theorem produces better results than just pulling the number out directly and running with it. Indeed, the real-world track record of LessWrong/MIRI (to bring this back to topical relevance) strongly suggests it's less effective.
Re:Is This Economist Too Far Ahead of His Time?
by Houshalter on Friday October 21, 2016 @09:01PM
(#12766327)
He didn't claim it had "real world basis" or "run it through Bayes' theorem". He just said he expects about a 30% chance he is right.
It means that if you offered him betting odds that it would happen, of less than 1:2, he would take it. And he would bet against it at odds higher than 1:2. Of course betting on the far future is impractical, because money might not be worth anything if it does happen, but in principle that's how these numbers can be interpreted.