Re:Do the math: too much calculus? (2012)
by novembermike on Wednesday October 19, 2016 @07:54PM
(#12748768)
The Monty Hall problem is about being given two sets of information. First they give you a 33% shot, then they give you a 50% shot. Take the 50% shot.
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Re:Do the math: too much calculus? (2012)
by hilop on Wednesday October 19, 2016 @10:12PM
(#12749376)
That's not true. It's a 66% shot.
It has to be, because there only two options, and (we agree) one of them was 33%, so they other must 66%.
Re:Do the math: too much calculus? (2012)
by posterboy on Wednesday October 19, 2016 @09:58PM
(#12749336)
No, the second chance is supposed to be better than a 0.5 and I could outline the argument, but I don't trust it.
Re:Do the math: too much calculus? (2012)
by retsibsi on Thursday October 20, 2016 @12:24AM
(#12749721)
The key is that Monty Hall is guaranteed to show you a losing door. If that weren't the case -- if he just picked one of the remaining doors at random -- then the fact that he happened to pick a losing door would count as evidence that your door is a winner, leaving you with a 50/50 shot. I think that's one source of intuitive discomfort, and even of lasting confusion if the scenario isn't specified precisely.