Re:Do the math: too much calculus? (2012)
by posterboy on Wednesday October 19, 2016 @09:58PM
(#12749336)
No, the second chance is supposed to be better than a 0.5 and I could outline the argument, but I don't trust it.
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Re:Do the math: too much calculus? (2012)
by retsibsi on Thursday October 20, 2016 @12:24AM
(#12749721)
The key is that Monty Hall is guaranteed to show you a losing door. If that weren't the case -- if he just picked one of the remaining doors at random -- then the fact that he happened to pick a losing door would count as evidence that your door is a winner, leaving you with a 50/50 shot. I think that's one source of intuitive discomfort, and even of lasting confusion if the scenario isn't specified precisely.