First, it doesn't matter how fast browsers moved. Currently they're moving pretty damn quick if you ask me but it doesn't matter because you need to know your audience and what browser(s) they use.
Second, I don't understand the want or need to include "hundreds of MBs dependencies to transform a arrow function". Why do you have to use an arrow function? Yeah it looks nicer but if you're complaining about how much dependency it brings in why not just not use it? Don't get me wrong I like ECMAScript 2015 but if you don't want to bring in the huge amount of transpiler dependencies ECMASCript 5 is still super easy to write.
and if we insist on crazy tooling chains, how about getting some real benefit – like coffeescript (?-operator anyone) or typescript (yes, typing can help, just look at swift)?
You can use one of a number of modern targets which will avoid the need for the various polyfils etc... but if you need current safari and any IE support, you will at least need dual build paths, which isn't too bad. I kind of wish there was a babel preset that was meant to be used in conjuction with Financial Times' polyfill.io
If that’s the only thing you’re transforming, my advice would be to stop and just use function () {}.
Depending on your target market, you may be stuck on ES5. Your users' browser behavior determines when you can remove the shims and transforms, and if they aren't upgrading you can't really force them to upgrade the browsers.
Please yes