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A comment on Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists. Parent comment

Re:Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of ano... by antognini on Sunday October 16, 2016 @03:40PM (#12720519)
The features are all encrypted using homomorphic encryption, which ends up mapping the overall distribuiton uniformly onto [0, 1]. If you play with the dataset, though, you'll find there are some significant correlations between the different features and you can make a model that does substantially better than chance.
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Re:Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of ano... by daveguy on Sunday October 16, 2016 @04:30PM (#12720766)
I would like to see a comparison between random generated uniform features and these features. Can you fit the noise and come up with "statistically significant" predictions? If so, is anyone doing any better than can be done on random data? If no one is doing better than that, what is the likelihood that these aren't any better than monkey with a dartboard?

I would love to see peer reviewed articles from numerai with some of their behind the scenes results.

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Re:Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of ano... by antognini on Sunday October 16, 2016 @09:41PM (#12722161)
Whenever I make a model I always do cross-validation to make sure that I'm not overfitting. If we were just fitting random noise I would always see the performance of my test set being no better than chance (or worse).
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