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Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by ChuckMcM on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @03:40PM (#12687859)
As with similar NASA vision statements about space, this is heavy on the what "Send people to Mars" and weak on the why, "What do we gain by being space faring?"

As a result it will be constantly under pressure from earthly issues that need money now. For example if you are a congress critter and asked to choose between funding a $1B for Zika virus research/abatement and using that $1B for 1/5 the cost of developing a new space booster system, people always choose the 'today' problem and delay the 'future' opportunity. No one wants to say "Sorry, you're unborn child was killed by a virus we could have stopped but we spent that money on a rocket."

This is why I am a huge fan of the Commercial Crew and other 'private' industry programs. Let private industry develop the tools and techniques for space and unshackle from them the cold war restrictions.

And yes, that is the elephant in this particular room. While the "west" wrings its hands over the PRK developing an operational missile capability, have you ever thought what a Falcon 9 looks like through that lens? As a military weapon it could be considered the first Intercontinental Ballistic Bomber. Think about that capability, a Falcon 9 with a payload capable of some re-entry steering, launches from a base in the US, lets fly the payload, and then flys back to base for the next payload. Ten of these sitting on pads in the Dakotas could put 100 tons of conventional explosive on to any target in the eastern hemisphere in about 45 minutes.

That is the kind capability that SpaceX could "market" to third parties. And it isn't something nation states like private companies to have.

Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by whybroke on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @04:23PM (#12688200)
You may as well argue Columbus out of crossing the Atlantic or the Polynesians out of crossing the Pacific. Humans will fill every island and every frozen coast. Indeed every species does this. Mammals act out of curiosity not just safety and do so for an evolutionary reason.

So the first question is will it be our civilization or another. The second is will you see it or not. The third: why delay the benefits.

But the biggest question is this: is the point of life merely to be a safe, comfortable and predicable at all costs or is it to devote at least some resources to seeking out challenges, knowledge and unknowable benefits.

Also there's a false dichotomy in your words. That hypothetical billion price tag for a Zika cure could be fully funded by a 20% tax on ice cream. Should we give up the space program just to eat a few more scoops of ice cream, smoke a few more cigarettes buy a bit more makeup?

Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by zbyte64 on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @05:57PM (#12688856)
When an eccentric scientist was funded to further develop the microscope, others asked why not spend that money for societal good? Little did they know that the microscope was the key to discovering germs.
Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by spapin on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @04:06PM (#12688063)
There are two problems with using Falcon 9s as reusable missile.

First: missiles needs to be always ready. They need to fire as soon as needed. A rocket like Falcon 9 uses liquid oxygen which cannot be stored for long period of time. Nowadays most missiles uses solid fuel (as the ones used in the Shuttle boosters)

Second: A booster that lands is not immediately reusable. you need to refill it, replace the pyrotechnic chains, put back the payload on top of it, etc. During that time, your missile is at risk of being destroyed by an enemy counter measure.

Submarines dispatched around the globe are already packed with nuclear missile using solid fuel that can already destroy any place any time.

Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by ChuckMcM on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @05:17PM (#12688594)
I think those are reasonable considerations in such a system. However I also believe that weapon systems all have strengths and weaknesses that are combined with other weapon systems to create a complete war fighting capability.

When you consider fueling options, its true that solid rocket fuel is a much better choice for a weapon system that is not re-usable. But when the possibility of re-use is there, the calculus changes. The US ICBM system is a "last resort" type system and as such doesn't have a good re-arming (or re-fueling) capability. But the reasons for that are that lobbing tens of megatons of nuclear fire over the horizon really means that there isn't going to be much left of civilization when you are done. When you consider the submarine fleet or the bomber fleet (the other two points of the nuclear trident) there is a lot of infrastructure and cost associated with refueling capability for the delivery platform which are planes and subs. Until SpaceX (and perhaps soon Blue Origin), there hasn't been a "reusable rocket" delivery platform and so refueling capability has never added value over non-refuelable solid systems.

Further, intercontinental missiles are not generally considered a conventional delivery mechanism because of their expense relative to their payload. They only made "sense" economically delivering nuclear weapons since the cost of a nuke was high, but its impact was also quite high, and so as a means of projecting force on a global scale it had high utility. But that changes too if your "marginal cost" is the payload and fuel. It is a well understood process for creating LOX and LH2 on site, Kennedy space center already has that capability.

Your second point, about turn around time, is also a good thing to consider for any weapon system. For conflicts against enemies that don't possess and intercontinental capability, cycle time for firing from the Dakotas in the US can be quite long as it would require a conventional army to traverse a large portion of the US or Canada before it could get to the base. That is very expensive and hard to do. Thus even if it took a month between firings you would not be in any danger of being destroyed. But systems design also tells us that we can finesses long cycle times with parallelism, so a network of 30 bases could fire one chunk of payload once a day (once from each base) continuously. That is just a question of money.

But all of this sort of speculation simply reiterates the point around peaceful capabilities (resuable rocket boosters) which have very real strategic implications. And space (and NASA) are particularly compromised by this. The US rocketry program was lead by Werner Van Braun after all, who had been using his developing knowledge of rockets to bomb London from Germany. The entire early space program was simply a palatable cover activity for developing reliable ICBMs with systems so integrated that nearly all of the satellites the US flew into orbit used an ICBM rocket body to launch them. This history has influenced NASA policy since its inception, delicately walking the line between "It's Science!" and "It's Military Superiority" in the capabilities they researched and deployed. As private companies develop more of these capabilities they won't stop because "it could be dangerous" and the military will have the same problems it did when the semiconductor chip industry ran ahead faster than the military could. You have to reach a new place of understanding where "commercial tech" >> "military tech" for some definition of 'tech'.

Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by cygx on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @04:02PM (#12688042)
"Sorry, you're unborn child was killed by a virus we could have stopped but we spent that money on a rocket."

This kind of argument always gets to me. There's no inherent value in money, it's just a means to the end of organizing society. If the financial system prevents us from going to Mars and providing health care simultaneously, you should not give up on either, but fix the broken system.

Sadly, we're apparently too greedy and stupid to do it...

Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by boznz on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @11:09PM (#12690192)
"Sorry, you're unborn child was killed by a virus we could have stopped but we spent that money on a rocket."

"Sorry, you're unborn child was killed by a virus we could have stopped but we spent thousands of times that in wars over oil".

"Sorry, you're unborn child was killed by a virus we could have stopped but we spent thousands of times that propping up dodgy financial institutions".

"Sorry, you're unborn child was killed by a virus we could have stopped but we spent thousands of times that making Hollywood movies".

.. yawn

Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by oliv__ on Wednesday October 12, 2016 @11:17AM (#12693622)
Your
Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by tajen on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @10:17PM (#12690012)
The financial system is a proxy for the resources. Replace the $ numbers with the merchandise and you'll understand it: "Sorry, your unborn child was killed by a virus we could have stopped by feeding a thousand researchers for 3 years with bread, meat and iPhones, but we spent that bread, meet, iron and quarry extracts on researchers who built a rocket to send all that material to Mars". Money is here to prevent us from spending more resources than we have, e.g. if a farmer extracts melons from earth to feed a SpaceX researcher, he should receive enough from society to build a house for his children.
Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by cygx on Wednesday October 12, 2016 @04:40AM (#12691248)
But it adds artificial resource limits to the mix. There are enough smart people and enough food end even enough iPhones around to have both smart rocket engineers and smart medecial doctors. The problem is that our system of resource allocation in not effective at putting them to work.
Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by tajen on Wednesday October 12, 2016 @05:22AM (#12691453)
The limits "added by the financial system" come from the limits of real-life resources we have. They are just transferred from the provider of the goods to the person who needs them. The world wouldn't work if e.g. USA consumed all the world's resources and didn't feed the world back with awesome inventions. Should you remove money, third-world producers wouldn't ship their goods to USA because they'd be better off eating them locally; What they're doing is an exchange of food-against-iPhones. I think you get my point anyway.

We don't have additional resources to feed more researchers (and it takes a lot of iPhones and trinkets to motivate an engineer to give up 60 years of his social life for science). We're currently altogether:

- creating iPhones (30,000 employees at Apple),

- have smart rocket engineers (5000 employees for SpaceX, 18,000 for NASA),

- smart medical doctors (800k doctors in USA)

- medical research (if you want to fund future research, you need to give a few dollars for every drug that you consume – We could think about another scheme of retribution, but sooner or later we need to pay researchers and their management for the work they do),

- and trying to create new social spying tools (I'm joking, but seriously innovation keeps 4 million people in the Silicon Valley busy with pitching their start-up or supporting people who pitch their start-up or cleaning the clothes of people who pitch their start-up).

You could reallocate people from Facebook to NASA, but it takes a few more skills, training and hardware to do rocket science than PHP. The assumption that "we have enough smart people and food" to make a leap in space exploration is an understandable concept of "Look at all those numbers! We sure could mix them up and dedicate ourselves to colonizing Mars without caring about finances!" But every resource is currently allocated, and if you want to get more people onto space exploration, you'll have to remove people from other sectors which may be equally important for our future. Finance is just a medium that acts as a proxy of the actual constraints of nature. Removing finances doesn't remove the constraints of nature.

Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by M_Grey on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @03:48PM (#12687931)
Look at the comments here, or on Reddit every time this subject is raised, and you have your answer. I'm sure that some people think in terms of, "Good attitude, good results", others are in it for the feel-good, and still others think that public interest in a major project is the only way to fund what matters.

Mostly though, it seems to be extremely cynical PR aimed at people who should know better. Never mind the questionable value of trading one gravity well for another, never mind the issues of getting people there alive and healthy, and never mind the "why"...

Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by 24gttghh on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @03:49PM (#12687935)
Thank you for this terrifying prospect which I had not considered...
Re:Making Human Settlement of Space a Reality by wolf550e on Tuesday October 11, 2016 @03:48PM (#12687934)
re: Why go to Mars? Dr. Robert Zubrin has an excellent answer in this 4 minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plTRdGF-ycs