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Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by lordnacho on Saturday August 27, 2016 @03:09PM (#12373692)
Never, ever use Excel for anything other than prototyping, spot-checking data, or as a makeshift GUI while you develop a proper one.

I've seen several financial shops where people were moving millions of dollars around using Excel. IMHO, it's always an indicator of deficient processes and lack of coding skill. Yes, I do know that some clever people use it. They are productive in spite of excel, not because of it.

Your main problem with excel is not that some statistical function is missing, or wrong, or misleading. Sure, that's an issue, but you can live with a few things being wrong if you can detect them and fix them yourself. I'll come back to stats later...

The problem with Excel is it's damn near undebuggable. There's simply nothing in the way of someone making a beast of a calculation, with the flow going all over several sheets. You can even make things circular if you want. The data and the code are all together, mixed up. Was a number in a given cell written there by the VB code, or was it an input? You can use the auditing functions, but chances are you will see a spaghetti of arrows.

It's also non trivial to find differences between different versions. Typically the dude who is using excel has also never heard of Git or SVN, so you will see a load of sheets like "portfolio1" and "portfolio2_new_old" and so on. I don't know if it's changed, but when I was using Excel, the files had code files within them, rather than separate files, like we do with most other languages.

Of course you aren't forced to write crappy spreadsheets, but there's simply a tendency for people who don't code to be a bit messy. But Excel is positively inviting trouble. It's so flexible that anyone under a little pressure will hack in some extra bell or whistle, building up tech debt for future generations. It basically lulls the novice into thinking they can build anything.

Amazingly I've met several people in finance who pride themselves on spreadsheets that stretch over thousands of lines. I remember a billion dollar merger where the analyst in charge of the "modelling" showed me how they reached the line limit (I think that's gone now, so good luck!). It's as if making things complicated justified their salaries, so maybe that's why excel is so popular.

Now, about statistics. If you're doing anything non-trivial, you absolutely do not have space to look at all the individual numbers in your matrices. Just like if you're solving equations on a piece of paper, you need your own symbolism. You need to be able to give things names and see short statements at the appropriate level of abstraction. You probably need to be able to verify the pieces independently, too. So unit tests for various operations, that aren't intruding into the business logic.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by ZanyProgrammer on Saturday August 27, 2016 @03:22PM (#12373751)
I could've sworn I've seen people who work in the financial and maybe data science industries who've praised Excel to the heavens on HN. Like on the same level as Python, R, etc.

I don't work in finance (or data science really) so I can't comment, but it seems merely a tool to me.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by Nicholas_C on Sunday August 28, 2016 @12:41AM (#12375331)
I'm probably one of those people. You can't build a model in R or Python and walk a sales or finance VP through it. The other day I walked some auditors through a regression model built in excel. I could not imagine doing that in R or Python, their eyes would glaze over and think it's a black box. That's the beauty of excel, very easy for everyone to understand as the numbers are right in front of you.
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by throw_away_777 on Saturday August 27, 2016 @03:49PM (#12373868)
There are lots of people who are data analysts who use Excel. Data scientists would more generally use more powerful tools, but Excel is still useful for some things. For example if you have to manually enter in a small amount of data and then perform some simple calculations on this data, Excel is a fine tool. If your data is stored in a machine readable format or you want to do complex analysis with it you generally shouldn't be using Excel.
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by huac on Saturday August 27, 2016 @04:09PM (#12373947)
+1 for manual entry; or if you need to fix some cells in the data.
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by lordnacho on Saturday August 27, 2016 @03:32PM (#12373800)
No way, not data science. How are you going to load in millions, possibly billions of individual numbers?

With finance there's a lot of things that seem like good fits, but only if you keep them small. Something like a personal budget is fine, where everything fits on a screen.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by dandermotj on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:59PM (#12374554)
The "big data vs. small data" argument isn't the issue for data scientists. It's the total lack of decent statistical libraries, visualisation tools, programming capabilities and on and on. Don't think anything I've worked on would come close to hitting the excel memory ceiling, but without a doubt completing it in excel would be nigh on impossible.
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by PeterisP on Thursday September 01, 2016 @03:24AM (#12403601)
A simple excel pivotchart on 10k-100k financial entries often works better than the best BI / MIS packages.

For most companies, all their data science fits in excel easily. Full transaction history with each individual item sold since founding the company? No problem. Every single visitor/page view on their website? I've seen such logs imported to excel to do some rough aggregation. Manufacturing data about each particular widget sub-part that ever went off your conveyor belt? Again, for many companies with hundreds of employees that would still fit in excel without issues.

There are so many companies who speak about big data while their largest datasets can fit into RAM of a cheap laptop. That doesn't mean that data science and analysis is worthless to them, quite contrary.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by blahi on Saturday August 27, 2016 @03:57PM (#12373905)
I have 2.4 billion data points loaded in Excel at the moment.

Not that it matters. "Data science" is not something that magically kicks in after you go beyond some "big data" threshold.

Excel is heavily used in managerial science type of positions and I can assure you those are rather heavy on the "data science" workflows.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by ramblenode on Saturday August 27, 2016 @04:32PM (#12374039)
The maximum number of rows in the most recent version is 1,048,576 [0]. I'm deducing then that your data is in wide format. What would happen if you wanted it in long format? It seems you would just be out of luck with Excel, which is not a problem in any other major statistics software.

[0] https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Excel-specification...

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by blahi on Saturday August 27, 2016 @04:44PM (#12374083)
Except that there is Power Pivot which is xVelocity - the same columnar store database use in SQL Server.
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by goatlover on Saturday August 27, 2016 @09:25PM (#12374896)
Why on Earth would you use Excel for that many data points?
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by blahi on Sunday August 28, 2016 @02:34AM (#12375552)
Quik self-service OLAP. Blazing fast slice & dice and multidimensional expressions (cube formulas). I would need a corporate BI solution to get that and it won't be self-service.

Nothing beats Excel + Power BI in reporting.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by kgwgk on Saturday August 27, 2016 @04:14PM (#12373976)
> Yes, I do know that some clever people use it. They are productive in spite of excel, not because of it.

Would they be more productive if you took Excel from them?

> I remember a billion dollar merger where the analyst in charge of the "modelling" showed me how they reached the line limit. It's as if making things complicated justified their salaries, so maybe that's why excel is so popular.

How should the analyst write his model in a simple way? As a Java (or Haskell, or whatever firs your ideal of simplicity) program? Or maybe he could simplify the model until he can write it down in a piece of paper.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by jnbiche on Saturday August 27, 2016 @05:50PM (#12374342)
> How should the analyst write his model in a simple way? As a Java (or Haskell, or whatever firs your ideal of simplicity) program?

In Python or R, like the rest of us do. Or SAS, Stata, or even SPSS if they want a familiar interface (although using the SPSS GUI instead of its scripting interface will put them at risk of the same kinds of mistakes as Excel is).

Ensuring reproducibility and robustness isn't rocket science, and it doesn't require the obscurity of Haskell or the verbosity of Java to do properly. But it does require learning to script to program their models, instead of relying on GUI (which should be perfectly natural to analysts and their long Excel formulas).

Edit: To be clear, when I say "scripting" here, I mean text-driven programming, as opposed to using a GUI interface (which is rarely robust or reproducible, and certainly isn't in plain Excel).

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by kgwgk on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:04PM (#12374380)
I don't think you know what a financial model is: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_modeling#Accountin...
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by jnbiche on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:14PM (#12374409)
Well, I've never worked in finance, but if these are like the mathematical models that I used to make predictions in grad school and for the year after grad school when I worked as a statistical analyst, I do. I presume these are predictive mathematical models, used for forecasting?

Why in the world would Python or R be inadequate for that type of work, if that's what you're implying? What do you think they lack that Excel has, other than a friendly GUI interface? Or SAS, Stata, or SPSS (all of whom have versions that they market heavily toward finance).

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by kgwgk on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:34PM (#12374464)
No, these are not mathematical models used for forecasting. In this context, "financial statement forecasting" means making up financial statements. Something like this: https://mycourses.aalto.fi/pluginfile.php/144740/mod_resourc...
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by lordnacho on Saturday August 27, 2016 @05:50PM (#12374344)
Yes, if people didn't think that crappy tools were OK, they would have better tools, and they'd have a better idea of what they could do. For instance, I did a lot of fixed income spreadsheets at one point. Instructive for learning how the business works, but ultimately if you stay with the spreadsheets, you are not full exploiting opportunities. If I were to come back to that I'd automate the opportunity finding as well, going back through time to validate. That's something you just can't do with an excel sheet.

Models that take up entire spreadsheets are not models. There is never enough data to validate the sheer number of degrees of freedom that such models contain. There would be things like sub-models of entire divisions of firms. Who even has data that could validate all the potential things that could happen? These spreadsheets are pure ludic fallacy; advisors pretending they know how adding or removing some employees will affect some merger.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by kgwgk on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:07PM (#12374389)
> These spreadsheets are pure ludic fallacy; advisors pretending they know how adding or removing some employees will affect some merger.

Yes, I agree. And I think Excel is an appropriate tool for that job.