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Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by kgwgk on Saturday August 27, 2016 @04:14PM (#12373976)
> Yes, I do know that some clever people use it. They are productive in spite of excel, not because of it.

Would they be more productive if you took Excel from them?

> I remember a billion dollar merger where the analyst in charge of the "modelling" showed me how they reached the line limit. It's as if making things complicated justified their salaries, so maybe that's why excel is so popular.

How should the analyst write his model in a simple way? As a Java (or Haskell, or whatever firs your ideal of simplicity) program? Or maybe he could simplify the model until he can write it down in a piece of paper.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by jnbiche on Saturday August 27, 2016 @05:50PM (#12374342)
> How should the analyst write his model in a simple way? As a Java (or Haskell, or whatever firs your ideal of simplicity) program?

In Python or R, like the rest of us do. Or SAS, Stata, or even SPSS if they want a familiar interface (although using the SPSS GUI instead of its scripting interface will put them at risk of the same kinds of mistakes as Excel is).

Ensuring reproducibility and robustness isn't rocket science, and it doesn't require the obscurity of Haskell or the verbosity of Java to do properly. But it does require learning to script to program their models, instead of relying on GUI (which should be perfectly natural to analysts and their long Excel formulas).

Edit: To be clear, when I say "scripting" here, I mean text-driven programming, as opposed to using a GUI interface (which is rarely robust or reproducible, and certainly isn't in plain Excel).

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by kgwgk on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:04PM (#12374380)
I don't think you know what a financial model is: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_modeling#Accountin...
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by jnbiche on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:14PM (#12374409)
Well, I've never worked in finance, but if these are like the mathematical models that I used to make predictions in grad school and for the year after grad school when I worked as a statistical analyst, I do. I presume these are predictive mathematical models, used for forecasting?

Why in the world would Python or R be inadequate for that type of work, if that's what you're implying? What do you think they lack that Excel has, other than a friendly GUI interface? Or SAS, Stata, or SPSS (all of whom have versions that they market heavily toward finance).

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by kgwgk on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:34PM (#12374464)
No, these are not mathematical models used for forecasting. In this context, "financial statement forecasting" means making up financial statements. Something like this: https://mycourses.aalto.fi/pluginfile.php/144740/mod_resourc...
Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by lordnacho on Saturday August 27, 2016 @05:50PM (#12374344)
Yes, if people didn't think that crappy tools were OK, they would have better tools, and they'd have a better idea of what they could do. For instance, I did a lot of fixed income spreadsheets at one point. Instructive for learning how the business works, but ultimately if you stay with the spreadsheets, you are not full exploiting opportunities. If I were to come back to that I'd automate the opportunity finding as well, going back through time to validate. That's something you just can't do with an excel sheet.

Models that take up entire spreadsheets are not models. There is never enough data to validate the sheer number of degrees of freedom that such models contain. There would be things like sub-models of entire divisions of firms. Who even has data that could validate all the potential things that could happen? These spreadsheets are pure ludic fallacy; advisors pretending they know how adding or removing some employees will affect some merger.

Re:Is Microsoft Excel an Adequate Statistics Package? by kgwgk on Saturday August 27, 2016 @06:07PM (#12374389)
> These spreadsheets are pure ludic fallacy; advisors pretending they know how adding or removing some employees will affect some merger.

Yes, I agree. And I think Excel is an appropriate tool for that job.