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A comment on Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference. Parent comment

Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by tfgg on Thursday June 09, 2016 @10:51AM (#11869739)
Have you considered using a TrueSkill-alike with extensions for scores/teams, such as PoissonOD?

http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/193839/sbsl_ecml2012.pdf

A few years ago I had a similar idea for trying to build team models, so you can make a better guess at the performance of national teams, since they don't play very often, or for league teams due to transfers at the start/during the season, but hadn't got as far as you :)

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Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by lum on Thursday June 09, 2016 @11:03AM (#11869827)
We did some preliminary experiments in this direction. Basically, we tried to do a regression on the score difference instead of using only binary outcomes. In our experiments it didn't improve the predictive accuracy - but there are many more things to try. It does feel a bit wasteful not to take score data into account.

Nice that you had some similar ideas :-)

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